This.
4680 cells likely won't be in production until late 2022 at the earliest. This is Elon time we are talking about. Recall, prototypes are easy, full scale production is the real challenge. Maybe not even until 2023 (They may focus on CT first, and then roll them out to MY later). Elon did confirm Austin would go live with 2170 cells initially iirc. Also, the Semi will need a ton of batteries they already have orders coming in for those beasts.
While I largely agree, I'm of the
opinion that they have been waiting for sufficient 4680 cells to start making MY v2.0 chassis.
Elon didn't say initial production at Austin would be 2170. He stated that Tesla had a 'backup plan' using 2170 cells if 4680 wasn't ready.
During the 3Q Earnings Call, VP Drew Banglino said they'd have sufficient 4680 qty to begin production use starting Q1 22, after being asked directly.
I believe they could have already begun those v1.5 builds (I call them v1.5 if using 2170) if they thought 4680 was too delayed. But they haven't.
The only mitigating factor in my mind is that NO WORD OF BATTERY PACK QUALIFICATION TESTS has been available. And that QA is the key to production.
Note too that BATTERY PACKS will be shipped to Austin (from Nevada) for production. Not 4680 cells.
What's interesting right now is the stacks of FRONT castings on the Fremont lot. (Rear castings get rolled inside for use pretty quickly).
The stack of Fronts seem to be shrinking. There's some re-arrangement, but seems smaller.
They had so many, they used to line the wall along the GigaPress machines, in addition to ther many stacks west of the presses.
Also interesting is the reduction in MY cars at the Logistics Lot. Far fewer than previous EoQ. But there are many more MS and MX getting shipped.
It won't take a major shutdown of the MY production line to convert to building MY v1.5 or v2.0 chassis.
All any of us have is
speculation.
Tesla, despite what the blogs want us / lead us to believe, is VERY TIGHT with information.
Nothing gets out that they don't wish known. Everything has a Tesla benefit - Battery Day, AI Day, etc etc. were all about Tesla needs.