CAFE to be 35mpg average

[malcolm]

35 mpg is "aggressive and attainable". But presumably it still works out cheaper just to pay the CAFE fines?

http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_110/110nr132.shtml

 

[mt2]

35mpg by 2020. Attainable, yes. Aggressive? Ha!

Obviously no bill would pass if it didn't protect the interests of US automakers. So I'm all for the new CAFE standards - at least it sets the bar somewhere. Anything higher probably wouldn't have passed.

My hope is that when US automakers start refocusing their engineering to reach the standards, they'll find ways to blow right past 35mpg, and do it years before 2020.

 

[BlackbirdHighway]

Long before 2020 the CAFE standard will become inconsequential as the price of oil soars much, much higher.

The recent discovery of a new oil field in Brazil is the largest find since 2000. At the present rate of world oil consumption, this new field represents a 100 day supply.

So, it took the world seven years to find a new 100 day supply. Now combine that with the very rapid growth of car sales in China and India and the future of oil is obvious; it's going to be much harder to get, and much more expensive to buy.

In five years or so, if oil is over $300 a barrel, and gasoline is about $10 a gallon in the US, electric cars will look very good to whole lot of people. There won't be much demand for big, thirsty vehicles anymore.

 

[tonybelding]

The recent discovery of a new oil field in Brazil is the largest find since 2000. At the present rate of world oil consumption, this new field represents a 100 day supply.

So, it took the world seven years to find a new 100 day supply.

That find in Brazil may have been the biggest, but it wasn't the only find in the last seven years. Also, there are new efforts to squeeze more oil out of old fields.

OK, I'm nitpicking. Your basic idea is still valid -- we aren't finding oil anywhere near as fast as we're burning through it.

In five years or so, if oil is over $300 a barrel, and gasoline is about $10 a gallon in the US, electric cars will look very good to whole lot of people. There won't be much demand for big, thirsty vehicles anymore.

I still believe the shortages are what will really wake people up. If you can't buy gas because your local stations are empty, or because you can't get a ration ticket, while your neighbor is still driving around in his electric car that he can charge at home whenever he likes. . . then you just might find yourself longing for an electric car too.

 

[vfx]

I recentyly read a national publication that said the big SUVs are making a comback even in the resale market.
This was only about a month or so ago. This local article carries some of the gist. http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/502368.html?nav=742

Tony is again spot on with the shortage as an EV incentive.

Joe or Jane driver either waiting in line or finding dry station pumps will make buyers flock to EVs like they are on a killacycle.

 

[Brent]

I still believe the shortages are what will really wake people up. If you can't buy gas because your local stations are empty, or because you can't get a ration ticket, while your neighbor is still driving around in his electric car that he can charge at home whenever he likes. . . then you just might find yourself longing for an electric car too.

I'm not sure that we'll ever have gas shortages. Shortages are usually caused by supply shocks (the OPEC cuts production) or price controls (wartime measures). If, instead, we continue to have steady, if declining, production, the supply/demand curve should cause prices to adjust upwards to equalize the two. The problem won't be that people wait in line for gasoline, or that their neighborhood station doesn't have it, but rather that the gasoline is $12 or $20 per gallon. I'd guess that rising gas prices may end up being the single biggest factor that motivates people towards fuel efficient cars, or EVs.

 

[TEG]

Although it is only a short term buffer, in the USA, we have strategic petroleum reserves (stored in underground caverns near primary refineries) to prevent short term supply problems.

There is also a complicated reserve related buy/sell/loan relationship between the government and big oil that is intended to avoid price spikes, and protect oil companies cashflow while they recover from some kind of disaster (natural or otherwise).