California AB1184

[Joel Weber]

In addition, the state requires more than 30% of transportation hydrogen to come from renewable sources. This includes capturing methane from farm waste and waste water treatment (ie. human waste) and even landfill bio-gas. Even though the hydrogen production still releases CO2 into the atmosphere, the GWP of the CO2 is much less than just releasing the biological methane into the atmosphere.

I am not a believer in hydrogen for transportation, especially passenger automobiles. I would much rather the State spend money to encourage scaling up facilities to synthesize drop in liquid fuels from bio-methane. It is even possible to use surplus renewable energy to synthesize those fuels from water and atmospheric CO2. The LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) is starting to encourage this kind of thing, but the cost per gallon is still too high.

Virgin Atlantic has partnered with LanzaTech to make waste carbon monoxide from steel plants into jet fuel, and I think a variant of that technology taking the waste gases from the sewage treatment which is near the Los Angeles airport and turning it into jet fuel would be worthwhile...

 

[Joel Weber]

Is there any reason to think that a California EV subsidy will have any effect on global carbon dioxide levels at all?

It seems pretty obvious that the number of copies of the Model 3 Tesla is going to sell in December 2017 is not a function of the subsidies; it's a function of how well Tesla can debug the assembly lines and supply chain. I suspect subsidies will similarly have little to no effect on Model 3 production in 2018, probably 2019, and quite possibly beyond that.

Maybe at some point a California subsidy will cause some copies of the Model 3 that might not have ended up in California to end up in California, but that doesn't necessarily change global carbon dioxide levels.

I am skeptical that the other automakers are likely to choose to build more compliance cars because of a more generous per-car subsidy.

Has anyone ever done a survey of what percentage of climate scientists think that California should adopt a policy that starting with the 2022 model year, all new personal automobiles sold in California must have an EPA battery range of at least 35 miles (so the current generation of the Volt would be allowed to continue to be sold in California)?

 

[ggr]

Is there any reason to think that a California EV subsidy will have any effect on global carbon dioxide levels at all?

It seems pretty obvious that the number of copies of the Model 3 Tesla is going to sell in December 2017 is not a function of the subsidies; it's a function of how well Tesla can debug the assembly lines and supply chain. I suspect subsidies will similarly have little to no effect on Model 3 production in 2018, probably 2019, and quite possibly beyond that.

Maybe at some point a California subsidy will cause some copies of the Model 3 that might not have ended up in California to end up in California, but that doesn't necessarily change global carbon dioxide levels.

I am skeptical that the other automakers are likely to choose to build more compliance cars because of a more generous per-car subsidy.

Has anyone ever done a survey of what percentage of climate scientists think that California should adopt a policy that starting with the 2022 model year, all new personal automobiles sold in California must have an EPA battery range of at least 35 miles (so the current generation of the Volt would be allowed to continue to be sold in California)?

I think for the foreseeable future Tesla will be able to sell everything they produce, so the worldwide net effect from Tesla won't change whether they are sold in CA or not. But the subsidy might change some minds in the other manufacturers.

 

[Viking1]

Good news for those that get in under the wire for the federal $7,500 credit.

"A compromise Republican tax bill released late Friday does not eliminate a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit as Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives had previously proposed."

Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Is Safe In Republican Tax Bill