California Renewable Energy Legislation / Progress

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Some tectonic movement along the SPV and Wind fault lines the last couple months. First chart shows monthly SPV production hit an all time high, in May 2021. The yearly peak always happens in either June or July, so this is due to added capacity coming online. The next two months should be equally impressive. The second chart gives the big picture of daily production/consumption, where the large SPV and wind increases just show up as a slight uptick right the the last two months. The key takeaway is the amount of renewable over the 33% line. The prior highest single month of renewable as a percentage of total power was May 2020 at 36.88%. April 2021 came in at 43.55% and May just hit 43.15%. Third chart shows SPV raw power generation increase from YOY data, with some of the largest ever increases seen the last few months. And the last chart is somewhat new and shows YTD renewables up to end of May. We are currently about 7% higher than the prior years, at ~36% vs. ~29%. It seems entirely possible that we end the year above 33%, and then 2022 may never see a line below 33% at any time, even in January. I would have to go back in the thread to see if the 2020 goal was 33%. We maybe didn't hit that until 2021, but I don't think that anyone is going to start tearing out SPV panels and reverting to fossil fuel power generation based on that.

State	Wind		Solar Photovoltaic		Solar Thermal
	March 2021	March 2020	March 2021	March 2020	March 2021	March 2020
California	6,074.4	6,027.4	13,275.1	11,547.2	1,280.8	1,284.0
Change	0.78%​		14.96%​		-0.25%​

From the EIA, new utility-scale capacity in 2021Q1 plus planned information including a little in 2024.

Generator ID	1-3/2021	4/2021+	2022	2023	2024
Onshore Wind Turbine	125.7​	276.4​	137.1​	0​	15.5​
Solar Photovoltaic	208.6​	1304.3​	2324.1​	2376.1​	0​
Batteries	260​	1933.6​	893.3​	1455.5​	0​
Geothermal	0​	17​	0​	0​	0​
Natural Gas Internal Combustion Engine	0​	3​	0​	0​	0​
Other Waste Biomass	0​	10.4​	0​	0​	0​
Wood/Wood Waste Biomass	0​	5​	0​	0​	0​
Conventional Hydroelectric	0​	1​	2.8​	0​	0​
All Other	0​	0​	50​	0​	20.1​
Total	594.3​	3550.7​	3407.3​	3831.6​	35.6​

Should keep growing, although wind is stagnant and California is just going to go for the expensive NIMBY-friendly option of offshore wind.

Actually, on wind, March was particularly windy and the production graph you'd posted suggests that might have continued through May, at least for California. Add in the significant growth in PV and you see production substantially higher.

 

[iPlug]

...Should keep growing, although wind is stagnant and California is just going to go for the expensive NIMBY-friendly option of offshore wind...

NIMBYism aside, do we have much more onshore potential here in CA?

Offshore wind, as expensive as it might be, continues to become more affordable. And off our central and north shores it offers substantially higher CF and consistency which will be helpful for seasonal demand changes, nights, and summer early evenings.

 

[RubberToe]

Actually, on wind, March was particularly windy and the production graph you'd posted suggests that might have continued through May, at least for California. Add in the significant growth in PV and you see production substantially higher.

Wind most definitely continued through May...

 

[mspohr]

Congratulations! AB 1139, what we've been calling "The Utility Profit Grab", was defeated today. The bill was unable to garner the 41 votes needed to pass the state Assembly and was put in the "inactive file", which means it is effectively done for this year.

You made the difference. AB 1139 was pushed by the most powerful lobbyists in the state, and by one of the most powerful lawmakers. Three weeks ago, the bill was moving like a freight train through the Legislature. How did we stop it? Because of you -- and literally tens of thousands of others who wrote and called their lawmakers.

 

[bkp_duke]

Congratulations! AB 1139, what we've been calling "The Utility Profit Grab", was defeated today. The bill was unable to garner the 41 votes needed to pass the state Assembly and was put in the "inactive file", which means it is effectively done for this year.

You made the difference. AB 1139 was pushed by the most powerful lobbyists in the state, and by one of the most powerful lawmakers. Three weeks ago, the bill was moving like a freight train through the Legislature. How did we stop it? Because of you -- and literally tens of thousands of others who wrote and called their lawmakers.

We will need to be vigilant. I would bet a version of this will be back again next year . . . and the year after that . . . and the year after that

 

[Redhill_qik]

We will need to be vigilant. I would bet a version of this will be back again next year . . . and the year after that . . . and the year after that

Well, doesn't this just put NEM 3.0 back in the CPUC's hands without the mandate if they don't finish by a certain date?

 

[bkp_duke]

Well, doesn't this just put NEM 3.0 back in the CPUC's hands without the mandate if they don't finish by a certain date?

Yes, but the scary part of this is that there was a good bit of support to GUT existing NEM 1.0 and 2.0 grandfathering and other provisions. Consumers made investment decisions based upon payback projections, and a good number of representatives didn't seem to give a flying @#$% about that.

All in the name of "equity". Equity . . . communism lite.

 

[Dave EV]

Getting close to 1 GW of batteries feeding into the CAISO grid. Any takers on when we will break 1 GW? There's supposed to be around 1.7 GW of storage added to the grid this year.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Getting close to 1 GW of batteries feeding into the CAISO grid. Any takers on when we will break 1 GW? There's supposed to be around 1.7 GW of storage added to the grid this year.

View attachment 680013

Very soon. These were/are the planned California utility battery additions (MW) for this year:

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_05

2021 5 176.4
2021 6 466.8
2021 7 529.7
2021 8 660.4
2021 9 246.1
2021 10 154.7
2021 11 240.4
2021 12 994.5

There were no planned retirements.

One of the great things about battery systems is that installation is very fast.

 

[Dave EV]

Getting close to 1 GW of batteries feeding into the CAISO grid. Any takers on when we will break 1 GW? There's supposed to be around 1.7 GW of storage added to the grid this year.

View attachment 680013

I figured today would be a good day to break 1 GW of battery power, but not quite. So close! 999 MW

 

[mblakele]

Vistra Completes Expansion of Battery Energy Storage System at its Flagship California Facility

/PRNewswire/ -- Vistra (NYSE: VST) recently completed construction on Phase II of its Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility. The battery system is now storing...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[RubberToe]

Well, looks like we missed the 33% by 2020 target, but seem to be well on the way to 50% by 2030 if not sooner. The chart tracks cumulative renewable power generation versus total power demand. Using numbers from the CAISO website.

 

[mblakele]

Well, looks like we missed the 33% by 2020 target, but seem to be well on the way to 50% by 2030 if not sooner. The chart tracks cumulative renewable power generation versus total power demand. Using numbers from the CAISO website.

View attachment 765577

Thanks for pulling that data together and sharing the chart.

Do you have any insight into the relationship between %-renewable and emissions, as reported by CA ISO?

I'm curious because the "Historical CO2 trend" chart makes it look like 2021 was worse than 2020. For example in July, the peak month, 2021 emissions were ~5.8, up significantly from ~4.4 in 2020.

Something to do with imports, maybe? Plus more WFH might mean less use of relatively efficient large-office A/C, and more use of relatively inefficient home A/C.

California ISO - Emissions, Today's Outlook

View real-time and historical CO2 emissions data.

www.caiso.com

 

[mspohr]

Well, looks like we missed the 33% by 2020 target, but seem to be well on the way to 50% by 2030 if not sooner. The chart tracks cumulative renewable power generation versus total power demand. Using numbers from the CAISO website.

View attachment 765577

Does CAISO data include home residential solar?
I tried to find this on the CAISO web site and it looks like they don't have a way to accurately measure rooftop solar contribution.

 

[SageBrush]

Does CAISO data include home residential solar?

It includes ISO data. So no

 

[RubberToe]

The 12-month moving average of total power provides some insight into residential solar. It has been trending down. I thought that the EIA report was now showing estimated residential solar? This chart is from the same set of data.

 

[iPlug]

Does CAISO data include home residential solar?
I tried to find this on the CAISO web site and it looks like they don't have a way to accurately measure rooftop solar contribution.

I have not seen that data to the level of granularity such as day/month as it's difficult to collect that data from homeowners. However, Michael Nyberg over at the California Energy Commission (CEC) does our state's total system generation report each year. The last time I recall he gave a number in that report was for 2018:

In 2018, BTM solar generation was estimated to be 13,582 GWh, a 20 percent increase from 2017.​

​

That year CA solar PV was 32,533 kWh so home/small business solar PV (Behind-the-Meter [BTM]) added an addition 42% to that.

Data reporting requirements for total system electric generation are limited to those projects with a nameplate capacity of 1 MW and larger. As most solar PV systems installed on residential homes and commercial buildings are less than 1 MW, they are typically considered to be distributed generation and not required to report to the Energy Commission.​

2018 Total System Electric Generation

In 2019 a CEC renewable energy report came out and there was updated data with BTM solar noted then up to 16,306 GWh:

https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/renewable_ada.pdf

Assuming that 20% annual growth continued since, 2021 would have home solar generation of ~23,470 GWh.


If anyone is interested, the Behind-the-Meter generation contact at the CEC is Sudhakar Konala: [email protected]

 

[Redhill_qik]

The 12-month moving average of total power provides some insight into residential solar. It has been trending down. I thought that the EIA report was now showing estimated residential solar? This chart is from the same set of data.

View attachment 765740

What is the definition for "Total Electric Power" for this chart?

 

[RubberToe]

What is the definition for "Total Electric Power" for this chart?

If you go to this page:

California ISO - Supply, Today's Outlook

View real-time and historical data on generation resources, including renewables, currently on the system.

www.caiso.com

It is the data in red shown here:

 

[iPlug]

Great day for renewables. 95% serving demand currently. In fact, perhaps also due to rising NG prices, the 3,000 MW NG floor is broken to a new low. We’re deep into renewable export territory at the moment.