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California renewable energy production with falling demand

iPlug

Member
Sep 14, 2019
527
754
Rocklin, CA
Nice article. Essentially, had we the proper virtual battery “power plant” implementation, we already had the equivalent power needed in existing residential, commercial, and industrial batteries to have prevented the blackouts:

...the devices could have supplied as much as 530 megawatts, Ms. Del Chiaro said. That supply would have exceeded the amount of electricity the grid lost when the natural gas plant, which grid managers have refused to identify, went offline...

Its Electric Grid Under Strain, California Turns to Batteries

Much more battery capacity in the next few years is already locked in, so this should increase the resilience of our grid.
 
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Bill25cycle

Member
Mar 31, 2011
103
69
You are happy to throw out baseless speculation.

Great
Another Big Expert here.... At least I freely mention when I don't have absolutely all the facts.

But to repeat - temporary outages are going to be seen in time to be a very minor issue. Amazing to me that THAT fact is such a mystery here. I'm glad I'm 400 miles north west of NY city, by similar reasoning.
 

iPlug

Member
Sep 14, 2019
527
754
Rocklin, CA
Report came out even later this year (released just earlier this month) - here's the annual update on the California Electrical Grid:


2019 California Electrical Grid Source data:

2019 Total System Electric Generation


Highlights comparing 2019 to 2018:
(note units are percent total system power)

-coal mix continues to decrease and only 2.96% (vast majority remains imported)
-natural gas use resumed its decrease (was downtrending but spiked to 34.91% of power mix in 2018), now down to 34.23%
-nuclear remains nearly stable, at 8.98%; almost 2/3 of this is from the Diablo Canyon in-state plant, currently scheduled to be decommissioned in 2025
-large hydro increased from 10.68% to 14.62%
-non-large hydro renewables grew and continue to climb, continuing a long trend, although slowing the rate from the prior year, to a current level of 31.70%
-this was mostly due to a decrease in annual wind production, down from 11.46% to 10.17%; in 2018 wind briefly retook the renewable lead from solar; solar had taken the lead for the first time in 2017 and has now resumed the lead
-solar (1 MW and larger facilities) continued to grow robustly, increased to 12.28% (11.40% in 2018)
-still, the impact of 1+ MW solar is greatly underestimated as “behind the meter” (BTM) home solar is not measured as only units generating 1MW+ are counted; for some reason, there was no update in this report - the 2018 report noted “BTM residential solar generation was estimated to be 13,582 GWh, a 20 percent increase from 2017”; at that time California probably received ~17% total system electric generation from all sources of solar PV, higher now
-California total system electric generation continues its downward trend, down 2.7 percent, or 7,784 GWh, from 2018; previously major factors cited were energy efficiency programs and residential installs of BTM residential solar PV systems that directly displaced utility-supplied generation.
-California's non-carbon dioxide emitting electric generation categories (nuclear, large hydroelectric, and renewables) accounted for 57 percent of its generation, compared to 55 percent in 2018. As a result, in-state generation increased by 3 percent (5,633 GWh) to 200,475 GWh. This increase was due, in large part, to increased generation from in-state large hydroelectric power plants, up 11,049 GWh (50 percent) from 2018. The gain from hydroelectric generation was offset by a 15 percent decrease in net imports to 77,229 GWh, down 13,418 GWh from 90,647 GWh in 2018.
 

RubberToe

Supporting the greater good
Jun 28, 2012
3,020
7,344
El Lay
Report came out even later this year (released just earlier this month) - here's the annual update on the California Electrical Grid:


2019 California Electrical Grid Source data:

2019 Total System Electric Generation


Highlights comparing 2019 to 2018:
(note units are percent total system power)

-coal mix continues to decrease and only 2.96% (vast majority remains imported)
-natural gas use resumed its decrease (was downtrending but spiked to 34.91% of power mix in 2018), now down to 34.23%
-nuclear remains nearly stable, at 8.98%; almost 2/3 of this is from the Diablo Canyon in-state plant, currently scheduled to be decommissioned in 2025
-large hydro increased from 10.68% to 14.62%
-non-large hydro renewables grew and continue to climb, continuing a long trend, although slowing the rate from the prior year, to a current level of 31.70%
-this was mostly due to a decrease in annual wind production, down from 11.46% to 10.17%; in 2018 wind briefly retook the renewable lead from solar; solar had taken the lead for the first time in 2017 and has now resumed the lead
-solar (1 MW and larger facilities) continued to grow robustly, increased to 12.28% (11.40% in 2018)
-still, the impact of 1+ MW solar is greatly underestimated as “behind the meter” (BTM) home solar is not measured as only units generating 1MW+ are counted; for some reason, there was no update in this report - the 2018 report noted “BTM residential solar generation was estimated to be 13,582 GWh, a 20 percent increase from 2017”; at that time California probably received ~17% total system electric generation from all sources of solar PV, higher now
-California total system electric generation continues its downward trend, down 2.7 percent, or 7,784 GWh, from 2018; previously major factors cited were energy efficiency programs and residential installs of BTM residential solar PV systems that directly displaced utility-supplied generation.
-California's non-carbon dioxide emitting electric generation categories (nuclear, large hydroelectric, and renewables) accounted for 57 percent of its generation, compared to 55 percent in 2018. As a result, in-state generation increased by 3 percent (5,633 GWh) to 200,475 GWh. This increase was due, in large part, to increased generation from in-state large hydroelectric power plants, up 11,049 GWh (50 percent) from 2018. The gain from hydroelectric generation was offset by a 15 percent decrease in net imports to 77,229 GWh, down 13,418 GWh from 90,647 GWh in 2018.

2019 was a crazy wet year. I don't imagine 2020 will come close to 2019 for large hydro power.

RT
 

RubberToe

Supporting the greater good
Jun 28, 2012
3,020
7,344
El Lay
Report came out even later this year (released just earlier this month) - here's the annual update on the California Electrical Grid:


2019 California Electrical Grid Source data:

2019 Total System Electric Generation


Highlights comparing 2019 to 2018:

-California total system electric generation continues its downward trend, down 2.7 percent, or 7,784 GWh, from 2018; previously major factors cited were energy efficiency programs and residential installs of BTM residential solar PV systems that directly displaced utility-supplied generation.

total power 2020_08.jpg
 

iPlug

Member
Sep 14, 2019
527
754
Rocklin, CA
Thinking of the fires, recent record temps, and related outages conjures up a thought experiment:

11.5 million households in CA. Imagine on average one Powerwall (5kW continuous and 13.5kWh) per household. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that 57,500 MW and 115,250 MWh?

Surely not cheap, but all that distributed buffer energy...see what a typical day looks like over at CAISO and what kind of cool stuff that power and storage could do...

For example, on record temp day 9/6/2020, peak demand was 47,000 MW.
 
Last edited:

Bill25cycle

Member
Mar 31, 2011
103
69
Not pedantic -- informed.

iPlug was pointing out to you that your comment about amount of energy saved tells you nothing about the effectiveness of the measure in addressing black-outs.

Skip the ideological BS and learn the difference between power and energy for a start. Your posts will begin to look less foolish.

You are apparently the one who cares excessively about what other people think. If you had read any of my other material, you'd realize that was very embarrassing to you to say that...

Florida has hotter weather, has no rolling blackouts, and no state income tax.

Suffice it to say that you can say about all the stuff you are doing, and how prepared California is, and how much smarter you guys are than the rest of us, but you seem be having all the trouble year after year after year, and it is getting worse as time goes on. And you pay plenty for crappier service.

The fact that my comment has struck such a nerve is indicative of the embarrassing truth I've uncovered.
 

iPlug

Member
Sep 14, 2019
527
754
Rocklin, CA
C'mon Tesla Energy! Pick up the pace on Powerwall/Powerpack/Megapack production! We can't keep using nat gas for the 5-8pm electricity spike.
Hoping battery day reveal will be about much more than vehicle batteries. For example, more affordable Powerwalls that have "million mile" battery cells, 20+ year warranty to guarantee 75% energy capacity...
 

mspohr

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2014
9,412
11,011
California
The agencies pinpointed three main reasons why nearly 1 million customers lost power over the course of two days in August:

Inadequate preparation for a “climate change-induced extreme heat storm.”
Insufficient energy in the early evening hours due to the state’s increased reliance on clean energy.
Complex market mechanisms, including one that allowed power plant operators to sell energy to other states even as a shortfall loomed.

https://calmatters.us11.list-manage...f825368013c58e4547&id=c7e4a9ba69&e=80ae6b3e57
 

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