California = Tesla + Toyota

[Cobos]

And I do have the Norwegian marketing material saying the Model S will be built on a Mercedes E-class plattform. Driving dynamics wise I'd also rather see Tesla go with Mercedes or their own derivate design than using a Toyota plattform. Mostly just for the time aspect of it, a new platform this late means at least another year.

Cobos

 

[Iz]

There was talk of a skateboard type platform that would support not only sedan but also SUV and CUV type chassis. Not certain if Toyota or Mercedes E-class are compatible, since these are based on an ICE configuration. It would be sad if the Model S devolves into something along the lines of what happened with the Volt redesign.

 

[TEG]

the S probably will ride on a Toyota platform

Just to be clear - that quote wasn't by me. If you read back, I was quoting this article. And my suggestion was that there may be some disagreement as to just how much involvement Toyota will have in Tesla cars like the Model S.

Another quote from the same article:

“The Model S is going to be ours. We’re building it from the ground up,” says Tesla spokesman Ricardo Reyes.

 

[just an allusion]

$50 Million for the worlds largest car maker is chump change.

Yes, it may well be "chump change" to Toyota, but when dealing with a multinational conglomerate like Toyota, it is always the best policy to maintain primary ownership of your stock.

$50 Million got them a 2.5% share in Tesla and unfettered access to cutting edge battery technology...That's all they need as we do not want to one day find ourselves discussing the ramifications of 'corporate takeovers' Tesla's infrastructure.

 

[just an allusion]

Comical thought: Considering the size of NUMMI, SpaceX could now be a 'small' operation in a corner of the Tesla factory!

When the Tesla models hit the mainstream, room for expansion of their product line for the purpose of increasing output will necessitate the need for the additional space...As the time tested and proven slogan reads, "If you build it, they will come".

IMHO, the ONLY reason why the current demand for the vehicles are relatively low at this point is primarily due to the limited access to them. Once more of these vehicles are seen on the roadways and auto lots of our cities, the perception with the general public will increase and spur the demand...Tesla will have to be ready for this increase and with the NUMMI/Toyota arrangement, they will be.

Really all just a simple application of good marketing sense.

 

[EVNow]

IMHO, the ONLY reason why the current demand for the vehicles are relatively low at this point is primarily due to the limited access to them.

Well, there is this small matter of cost & range. Eventually the demand will depend on price and availability of oil i.e. how will Peak Oil play out.

 

[EVNow]

And I do have the Norwegian marketing material saying the Model S will be built on a Mercedes E-class plattform. Driving dynamics wise I'd also rather see Tesla go with Mercedes or their own derivate design than using a Toyota plattform. Mostly just for the time aspect of it, a new platform this late means at least another year.

Cobos

I'd think the Toyota deal makes that E-class platform less likely.

With Mercedes going with Nissan/Renault and Toyota with Tesla, I'd say the battle lines are being redrawn.

 

[AnOutsider]

Another quote from the same article:

That's great to hear actually, I was hoping it didn't just get swallowed by Toyota. I'd really like to see a next gen Roadster completely designed by Tesla. If the styling cues follow Model S, it'd probably be one I'd be interested in.

 

[just an allusion]

Well, there is this small matter of cost & range. Eventually the demand will depend on price and availability of oil i.e. how will Peak Oil play out.

The Model S has a range of 300 miles, which is typically more than the average commuter will use in even a week's time, and it's price of approx. $50K is comparable to any number of other high-end, luxury, sport sedans both on the domestic and foreign markets. After that, it really does all boil down to availability &/or profile, i.e., people actually SEEING it.

By way of explanation, it is commonplace knowledge that we live in an image conscious society (albeit World) that favors visual and physical stimuli, one wherein people generally have a hard time with believing in that which they cannot actually see or touch, let alone grasping a concept that is, admittedly, to most of them little more than futuristic science fiction.

The mass production and deployment of the Tesla models will serve to embody the 'concept' in tangible reality that will prove to be far too hard to ignore or be so easily discounted by conventionally fueled vehicle proponents, ultimately serving to signal that the future is here NOW and that electric powered vehicles are a reality.

As for how "will Peak Oil play out...", well, they're doing quite the job of validating ALL of the so-called "greenies" allegations of the impropriety and danger of off-shore drilling, as well as backing themselves into a corner with first the occurrence, and then the rather conspicuous handling, of the Gulf Coast oil leak, wouldn't you say?!

Alas, this thing from the past (petroleum from decayed plant life) will find itself left in the past as we move on towards the future in commuter, commercial and industrial powering...They're just making the case for the need of transition that much more obvious and necessary.

 

[EVNow]

The Model S has a range of 300 miles, which is typically more than the average commuter will use in even a week's time, and it's price of approx. $50K is comparable to any number of other high-end, luxury, sport sedans both on the domestic and foreign markets. After that, it really does all boil down to availability &/or profile, i.e., people actually SEEING it.

I was really commenting on the overall EV scene - not just model S.

BTW, E class Merc sells about 30 K cars in the US a year. Model S wants to make 20K cars - sounds about right to me. If they ever want to build 500K cars at NUMMI obviously that won't happen with a $50K car. That is where cost & range issues come in.

 

[AndrewBissell]

Just a sanity check: The price of $50,000 (after $7500 incentive) is for a 160 mile range vehicle. We have no idea yet how much the 230 mile and 300 mile vehicles will be priced at.

 

[Cobos]

Also keep in mind that though Merc only sells around 30k E-series in the US they sell a lot more worldwide (they probably sell about 300 in little Norway just to feed the Taxi market here). Those 20k Model S on the other hand is supposed to feed the worldmarket for Model S. So it sure sounds like plausible sales numbers.

Cobos

 

[PopSmith]

The Model S has a range of 300 miles...and it's price of approx. $50K

While I'm not pointing fingers specifically at just an illusion, I believe what I quoted is big problem for electric cars when it comes to the press. Most report on the Model S (and electric cars in general) as if its range is going to be 300 miles on the base $50K sedan. This is very unfortunate as it paints a negative light for the average, uninformed car buyer. ("The base model only goes 160-miles on a charge?" "You mean it's going to cost me extra to get the 300 mile pack?!")

However, the current plan for the base model is a 160-mile pack with optional upgrades for up to a 300-mile pack. As a pure guess I assume the 300-mile pack will probably cost $7,500-$10,000 extra over the base price of $57,400 before any tax credits/rebates.

 

[EVNow]

However, the current plan for the base model is a 160-mile pack with optional upgrades for up to a 300-mile pack. As a pure guess I assume the 300-mile pack will probably cost $7,500-$10,000 extra over the base price of $57,400 before any tax credits/rebates.

That would be cheap. S would need some 35 kwh for those extra 140 miles. That sounds like $15-20K to me.

 

[dpeilow]

Reuters: UAW pressuring Tesla/Toyota to hire union workers at former NUMMI plant

Also:

Obama to visit Fremont next week

 

[dpeilow]

Elon Musk writes open letter to Downey

Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk says he was prepared to build his vehicle assembly plant in Downey before Toyota came forward with its $50 million offer, according to a letter written by Musk for his personal blog.

The letter was e-mailed to city staff members and council members on Saturday, two days after news broke that Tesla would build a Model S assembly plant in Fremont. (E-mails sent to council members and city employees are public record.)

In the letter, titled "Downey is Awesome," Musk says a deal between Tesla and Toyota was reached Wednesday night. The letter does not reveal how long Tesla and Toyota had been in talks.

Musk also recommends Downey "for any company [that] is considering a place for a major operation," and says he will consider Downey when he needs to expand SpaceX or starts an electric jet venture.

Read more: The Downey Patriot - Elon Musk writes open letter to Downey

 

[AnOutsider]

Electric jets eh? The Iron Man cameo becoming reality?

 

[Cobos]

He has actually said he wants to build electric jets at some interview. I of course can't remember when or where, but that cameo is in many ways true yes.

Cobos

 

[AnOutsider]

it's one thing to lose charge on the highway, quite another to lose it mid-flight.

Would the fuel weight savings actually be savings once you factor in batteries?

 

[PopSmith]

That would be cheap. S would need some 35 kwh for those extra 140 miles. That sounds like $15-20K to me.

As I mentioned I just threw out a number, which might not have been too smart, and I wasn't trying to be real accurate. :tongue:

Anyway, my point was that the $50,000 Model S is supposed to go 160 miles on a charge and getting the 300 mile battery pack, which is what the media most often quotes when talking about the Model S, will mean customers will be paying $65,000+ for a base Model S with a 300-mile range.

The problem with that is "Joe Average" who isn't well educated on electric cars will believe (and probably argue) that the $50,000 Model S has a range of 300-miles due to the way the press talks about the Model S and I'm curious as to how Tesla is going to address that issue.

it's one thing to lose charge on the highway, quite another to lose it mid-flight.

Would the fuel weight savings actually be savings once you factor in batteries?

While I don't want to go too off topic, if Elon truly starts an electric aircraft company he would probably start smaller, such as single prop planes, and wait to move up to smaller corporate jets or, the real target, commercial airliners until battery technology evolves a bit more compared to current batteries.