STS-134
Active Member
Rate increases do not improve the math, and increases in off peak rates actually hurt the math. What matters is not the absolute price of off peak or peak rates but the difference between them. The Powerwall is, in effect, an electrical usage time shifting device.Your numbers are fine, but they don't account for escalating and unpredictable time of use rates that PG&E and other utilities will impose on consumers in the future. your numbers are a good starting point but in reality the math improves due to increasing rates. off peak rates alone have doubled in the past several years.
Right, but I'm not discussing the solar portion, only the Powerwall portion. If you didn't have the Powerwall, you couldn't store the solar energy, and would have to sell it to PG&E at off-peak daytime rates. Then you'd need to actually draw from the grid during peak rates instead of using your storage. We've already determined that, if the PW lasts exactly its warranty period and breaks 1 day after, you'd be paying 29¢/kWh for the privilege of storing that energy. It follows that you'd better be getting more than 29¢/kWh in value out of storing it and using it later instead of selling it immediately and drawing from the grid later on. Given that:Besides oversizing the system which is also costly, battery storage is the only way to counter time of use rates. my system (panels + pw) is expected to pay for itself in 6-7 years since I replaced all my gas appliances and it's offsetting $2.5k-$3k annual electricity bill and gas bill is poof. Had I didn't get a pw, I would have needed to install more panels to offset peak rates.
1. The PW can store 13.5 kWh of usable energy
2. There are 2557 days in 7 years
3. The total amount of energy you'd be able to store and consume during peak hours in 7 years, assuming you charge it fully every day and exhaust it completely every day, is 2557*13.5kWh=34519.5 kWh
4. There are 121 annual days in the PG&E "summer" season (June 1-September 30) where you get 31.251¢/kWh stored
5. 7 years' worth of "summer" days is 7*121*13.5 = 11434.5 kWh @ 31.251¢/kWh
6. The rest of the energy, 34519.5-11434.5 = 23085 kWh, is used during the non summer season, and you benefit from it to the extent of 18.54¢/kWh
So let's add everything up:
(11434.5 kWh * $0.31251/kWh) + (23085 kWh * $0.1854/kWh) = $7853.354
I don't see how that PW possibly pays for itself in 7 years. And this is if you're charging it to 100%, AND if you make sure to use the entire capacity of the PW, such that it hits 0 usable kWh stored at 8:59:59 pm every night. If there ANYTHING left in the PW the moment 9 pm rolls around, then make the payback time even longer. And you'd better not ever go on vacation and stop using as much peak electricity from your PW either.
And note that there is another option here: get solar without storage, and as you'd be using more energy during peak times, switch to ETOU-C or ETOU-D. I'm probably paying about a 10¢/kWh premium over EV2-A during offpeak, but I am saving about 8¢/kWh during peak times (summer), 11¢/kWh during partial-peak times (summer), 5¢/kWh during peak times (non summer), and 7¢/kWh during partial-peak times (non summer). Combined, my cars consume about 400 kWh/month, so I'm paying about $40 more to charge them per month than I would on EV2-A. But then I need to subtract off the savings for cooking dinner, running the AC, etc.
I checked my usage on two months: last month and mid-summer. Peak usage last month was around 80 kWh. During mid-summer, it was around 140 kWh. That means 2-5 kWh/day. So anyway, the most I'd save with a PW, assuming I wanted to go on EV2-A, would be (140 kWh/summer month)*(4 summer months)*($0.31251/kWh) + (80 kWh/non summer month)*(8 non summer months)*($0.1854/kWh) = $293.66 per year. On an $11000 investment, that's a 2.67% annual rate of return. Quite frankly...that's awful. I can get WAY better than that investing money in other things. And even worse, when you typically make an investment, you get a return on that investment, and you get all of your principal back at the end. But a Powerwall is a piece of technology and a consumable item, and it depreciates to $0. And unless you're purchasing it for a business, you can't even write off the depreciation; you get nothing back when it's done and "used up", so it not only has to give you a higher return than you'd get elsewhere, but the savings it gives you must return all of your principal back over its lifetime too. Given a savings of about $300 a year, when is that going to happen? It would take more than 35 years just to return my principal back in (highly depreciated) dollars. I suppose this could happen in much less time if you are a very heavy peak electricity user but as I've already shown above, it literally cannot happen within 7 years.
That is indeed the only thing that I think the Powerwall provides that's somewhat useful: automatic emergency backup 240V split phase power. Automatic emergency generators and transfer switches are pretty costly, about as much as a Powerwall. But my power goes out 0-3 times per year, for maybe a few hours each time. It's annoying, but it doesn't annoy me to the extent that I'm willing to throw $11000 at it. And the "no build" option (where you invest the money in something else instead) should always be considered. I get some of the benefits of a Powerwall with a portable generator and extension cords, minus the ability to cook on my cooktop or run the AC. If the power goes out on an extremely hot day, I could always go elsewhere or even put the car in camp mode.to me it was worth it since I wanted to "complete" the system with panels and power wall plus, we haven't even talked about power outages and for that, the value placed on it is dependent on the individual and can't be assigned a value with math.
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