Canceling my reservation

[TexasEV]

My slightly different perspective is that people got caught up in the "$35,000 Tesla - $7500 federal credit - $ state incentives = TESLA FOR TOYOTA $. It was theoretically possible for a Model 3 to cost about 25k, not too far off the base price of a Toyota Camry.

The options pricing mostly demolished this. Want a color other than black? + $1000. Want range that gets closer to an ICE? + $9000. That autopilot everyone is talking about? + $5000.

If it's too good to be true, it usually isn't true. Model 3 was always going to be BMW 3 money, not Toyota Camry money.

It’s half the price of a Model S of similar range. What more do you want?

 

[Dutchie]

It still takes a giant leap of faith buying aTesla. It is just a different car from a different car company. I know lots of people who admire Tesla and love the company but — when it some to finally buying one — they choose the good old reliable BMW or MERC. they always had and always used too.
"It is better to sleep with the devil you know than the devil you don't know..."
The people who buy a Tesla are still early adopters and not everyone is an early adopter.

I only don't understand the "expensive" part. The $35K model is coming next year and, $35K is the figure Elon always talked about.

 

[Saghost]

They just couldn't resist adding in complexity where its not warranted though. Why wouldn't mechanical door handles work? Why can't it just have a normal lock on the trunk/frunk? Why does it have an iPad on a stick? The answer to all these questions is "because it's a Tesla!" They don't do simple and they don't do normal. It's honestly why I fell in love with the Model S initially. It's just so different..

Have you thought through all of the implications for Tesla of these things, or are you just assuming that because other car companies do it, it must be cheaper for Tesla to do it the "normal" way?

Mechanical door handles mean sorting out and establishing an alignment and mechanical path from the handle to the latch, then getting the alignment consistent for every car and possibly adjusting it over the life of the car. They also require a mechanical locking element to disrupt the mechanical path, so that it won't work when the car is locked. That locking element may become a weak point if someone can figure out how to move it from the outside of the car (classic "slim jim", etc.)

Putting a "normal lock" on the Trunk and Frunk would require Tesla to establish a mechanical key format for the first time in their existance, define a scheme for managing them, and invest in key cutting machinery and a method for tracking all the key versions and the cars they relate to. Things legacy manufacturers inherit from way back, but Tesla has never had. Yes, of course they can figure it out - but why should they invest all that money to deliver a worse user experience for minimal per car savings?

Keep in mind, Tesla aspires to make these cars full self driving and offer them as Uber style taxis, where choosing who has access to the various areas electronically without keys will also have significant value.

Tesla has a decade of experience in building effective UIs on massive touchscreens to control everything, and no experience in making interiors with a thousand buttons consistent, attractive, and reliable. The massive touchscreen is a cheaper solution for them than working out how to build the thousand button car - and might be cheaper on a per-unit basis as well (and, of course, folks who bought expecting it to be like other Teslas would be disappointed by the thousand button car.)

 

[kablammyman]

I dont get why some of you get so butt hurt when another individual decides he does not want a model 3. Some of you act a little too sensitive about how others spend their money.

 

[buttershrimp]

@buttershrimp I hate to do this, but its your civic duty to get the Model 3 and make more videos. Even though you're highly disappointed in Elon(ger to wait for car) Musk(eep waiting for car), you have to stay the course. The world needs more of these videos to shed light on the truth.

But what about my 6 cup holders? If Elon wasn’t so busy traveling in Israel and tweeting about Facebook, he would realize that buttershrimp needs 6 CUP HOLDERS! That’s it, I have to cancel!

 

[Big Dog]

My greatest concern was with the windshield wipers, but the latest Autopilot firmware update seems to have finally gotten the automatic wiper function working properly.

Me too, I live in SoCal and I hate the wipers swiping when its not raining or at a stoplight, so I turn them off frequently. Hopefully, the interface won't be hassle.

 

[roblab]

I dont get why some of you get so butt hurt when another individual decides he does not want a model 3. Some of you act a little too sensitive about how others spend their money.

The few who decide to cancel their orders only interest me because I want to know what points tipped them over that line. Nearly every time I find that the "last straw" is more of a fear that something might be this way or that way on delivery, when usually the cars do not have that fault at all (other that 6 cup holders, buttershrimp) and they cannot imagine that Tesla will fix it because of all the fear being posted around. Most of us have our cars, and they are past satisfactory.

But if a person has actually gotten facts and decided he doesn't want this particular car, more power to him! There are still a few hundred place holders that want what you can't stand. And they're not all fanbois.

 

[N5329K]

Cost ("too expensive") was the second reason on their list, which I take at face value.

Perhaps "cost" is not the best word. "Value" might be the better metric. A design that was the right size (for the buyer), had all or most of the right features and fewer (or no) bugs, but with a higher-than-anticipated price tag might not have ended in a cancellation. Can't speak for David on this but that's definitely my situation.
It's a balancing act. Where you place the fulcrum (purchase price? quirks/flaws? UI/safety? complexity? total owning costs?) is up to you.
Robin

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It still takes a giant leap of faith buying aTesla. It is just a different car from a different car company. I know lots of people who admire Tesla and love the company but — when it some to finally buying one — they choose the good old reliable BMW or MERC. they always had and always used too.
"It is better to sleep with the devil you know than the devil you don't know..."
The people who buy a Tesla are still early adopters and not everyone is an early adopter.

I only don't understand the "expensive" part. The $35K model is coming next year and, $35K is the figure Elon always talked about.

We are kind of in that camp of being admirers but leaning away from a Tesla for the next car. It’s one of the reasons we enjoy this forum. Knowledgeable people, EV enthusiasts, lots of perspectives. Angela and I both drive EV’s neither being a Tesla. We’ll be replacing one in a couple years but we are leaning away from the Tesla brand for a few reasons.

1. We decided we really like our hatchback leaf and won’t be happy with a 4 door coupe even though 3 looks awesome. Can’t afford an X.

2. Too far from a service centre for a potentially quirky car. (Leafs just don’t seem to ever fail...exaggeration yes I know).

3. Price. This last one might not be an issue if there is a low cost model y available some day but it probably won’t be available in ttwo years.

I will continue to admire Tesla’s, take part in events where I can and be envious of the many happy owners of these amazing cars.

 

[S3XY]

It still takes a giant leap of faith buying aTesla. It is just a different car from a different car company. I know lots of people who admire Tesla and love the company but — when it some to finally buying one — they choose the good old reliable BMW or MERC. they always had and always used too.
"It is better to sleep with the devil you know than the devil you don't know..."
The people who buy a Tesla are still early adopters and not everyone is an early adopter.

I only don't understand the "expensive" part. The $35K model is coming next year and, $35K is the figure Elon always talked about.

People who are now saying that $35K is too much are the ones that were counting on the $7,500 credit in order to afford it. But now it's looking like the credit will be halved before the SR batteries are available. I totally understand stretching a bit to get what you want but for those that are practical the thought of any additional stretching snaps them back to reality. All the other reasons listed are rationalizations to justify their decision. /psychiatrist Dr S3XY

 

[hingisfan]

Does nobody factor in gas savings? Makes a base 3 a steal, especially when you drive one.

 

[McRat]

I don't think cancelling will be necessary for me any time soon. They aren't available for sale in any significant numbers so why cancel?
I do find it puzzling why Scalpers aren't fetching more money than they are. If there were 20k buyers wanting Hupmobiles and <10k cars, they would fetch 50% over MSRP typically. It's why I seldom buy cars with a limited supply. I wait until the demand falls. I've never paid a premium over MSRP (seldom pay full MSRP either) and I'm not going to start. The Model 3 is probably a great car, but it's not the only one, and our family of four is >90% EV miles already so it's not like I'd be cleaning the air by purchasing one, since it will replace a car that runs on electricity already, not any of the ones that run on gas or diesel.

 

[N5329K]

Does nobody factor in gas savings? Makes a base 3 a steal, especially when you drive one.

I did, and it barely moved the needle. Not a steal at all for our family (we have two Prii and a vintage roadster, and even the roadster gets 30 MPG). Low annual fuel costs meant Model 3 gas savings would pay for installing the NEMA 15/40 (which is in and waiting) in about three years. Never mind buying the car.
Robin

 

[Sportstick]

The few who decide to cancel their orders only interest me because I want to know what points tipped them over that line. Nearly every time I find that the "last straw" is more of a fear that something might be this way or that way on delivery, when usually the cars do not have that fault at all (other that 6 cup holders, buttershrimp) and they cannot imagine that Tesla will fix it because of all the fear being posted around. Most of us have our cars, and they are past satisfactory.

But if a person has actually gotten facts and decided he doesn't want this particular car, more power to him! There are still a few hundred place holders that want what you can't stand. And they're not all fanbois.

Facts, in no particular order, which pushed me over the line to cancel at the end of 2017, after holding a reservation for over a year-1/2:

1) Car was not available by the end of 2017 when I needed a new car.
2) Tesla was having trouble welding steel and assembling bodies with high quality and local showroom model as recent as a few weeks ago shows the problem remains through that unit.
3) First year problems includes being stranded, as one thread here has shown, but has never happened to me before with a new car...ever.
4) Discovery that rear seat passengers cannot open doors if power is lost post-impact.
5) No availability of interior color other than black when I would have received invitation to configure. Black interior in the southwest is not acceptable to me.
6) Discovery of rear seating position with low hip-to-heel dimension, creating uncomfortable seat for adults.

 

[cab]

While I have a number of concerns with Tesla, honestly, my biggest challenge is I am having a bit of trouble justifying replacing our CPO 2013 Model S P85+ with a Model 3. While the Model 3 looks good, I think the S looks even better. The 3 is quick, but the S is a bit quicker. The 3 handles better, but the + suspension closes at least some of that gap (at least for daily driving). We still have over 2 years of warranty left so I'm also insulated from repair costs for a while. I'm also assuming that I'll want the air suspension (I preferred the ride over even a coil-equipped S... and I have the + suspension to boot), and that adds another $2500 or so and maybe yet another $5k if they end up pairing it with AWD.

I'm in the " Beyond this being the NEWEST thing, is it really worth the delta between my car's current value and the likely $65K it would cost for a new 3 with air/awd/most options?".

Ironically, the car that could make me splurge might be a wholly refreshed Model S!

 

[anticitizen13.7]

It still is Tesla = Camry for the $35k model without fed tax credits as long as you factor in residual value, fuel savings and maintenance. I have done the math on this forum a dozen times, not doing it again. Gene Munster did a similar analysis that you can search for as well, but left out some factors such as residual value. Adding solar to the equation can bring the base model 3 inline with a Corolla if you in own long enough (10 years).

And don't forget that every day-one reservation holder should have at least some tax credit. There is also a legitimate push to fix the tax credit as it is going to unfairly benefit those European and Chinese companies that have large import duties on us cars and who never did anything to push EVs forward. In fact they have had to be dragged kicking and screaming (crying really) into EVs.

I believe Tesla had the right formula to make people do the match on TCO to see the value of the model 3 vs your average Camry or Accord.

I looked at the Gene Munster analysis: Model 3 Could Change The World: A Cost Of Ownership Study | Loup Ventures, and I find it problematic, for the following reasons:

(1) The maintenance costs in the Toyota Camry are listed as $495 in the first year, $443 in the second year, and $443 in the third year, for a person driving 13,476 miles/year. This seems excessive to me. 13.5k miles/year would typically require 2 oil changes for the 0w-20 semi-synthetic oils used today. This is about $30/change. Brake pads on a Camry won't be worn out after 40k miles, unless the driver is really abusing them. Munster's analysis seems to account for a tire change in Year 4 maintenance, which seems reasonable to me. Just from life experience and many years driving Japanese brand sedans, I cannot recall ever spending anything close to $1300 on maintenance items in the first 3 years of ownership.

We also don't have enough data on tire wear in the Model 3, but I am fairly sure that a RWD sport sedan with a very torquey electric motor will consume tires at a greater rate than a FWD Camry.


(2) Repairs. Munster allocates $99 in repairs for the Camry in Year 3, $238 in Year 4, and $346 in Year 5. He allocates nothing for the Model 3. Given the high maintenance cost of Model S, I am skeptical that Model 3s, especially early production units, will be as repair free as he expects, especially after the 4-year bumper-to-bumper warranty runs out.

(3) Insurance. Camry and Model 3 are estimated to have similar insurance rates. I am skeptical of this. I believe that Model 3 is likely to be a safer car than the Camry (no engine block, lower chance of rollover due to battery, better sensor suite for collision mitigation), but the extent to which this is offset by high repair costs and driver demographics is unknown. Model S has proven to be expensive to repair. Model 3 components, at least initially, will be hard to come by and probably expensive. If the population of Model 3 drivers proves to be more aggressive and accident prone than the Camry driver population, insurance rates will rise accordingly.

Finally, one should consider that initial cash outlay is an issue. Even if we assume that Model 3 is less expensive over a total ownership period, many people cannot afford a big upfront cost. I expect Model 3 to win some sales from Camry/Accord buyers who are willing to stretch and like new technology, but my expectation is also that the bulk of Model 3 sales will be conversions from BMW 3, Audi A4, and MB C-Class, and equivalent customers.

When people see how sexy it looks and how fun it is to drive, they will get real good at math all the sudden. And they will find ways to justify it. Like no more Starbucks or cheap cellphones every two years instead of a new $1k iPhone every year. Or packing healthy lunch instead of eating out.

I have a much dimmer view of what will happen. People won't get good at math. They will simply take on more debt. Many of my friends and colleagues are highly educated people who are really terrible at managing money, but this is not Tesla's fault. Tesla, rather than Audi or BMW, will simply be the beneficiary.

 

[Saghost]

While I have a number of concerns with Tesla, honestly, my biggest challenge is I am having a bit of trouble justifying replacing our CPO 2013 Model S P85+ with a Model 3. While the Model 3 looks good, I think the S looks even better. The 3 is quick, but the S is a bit quicker. The 3 handles better, but the + suspension closes at least some of that gap (at least for daily driving). We still have over 2 years of warranty left so I'm also insulated from repair costs for a while. I'm also assuming that I'll want the air suspension (I preferred the ride over even a coil-equipped S... and I have the + suspension to boot), and that adds another $2500 or so and maybe yet another $5k if they end up pairing it with AWD.

I'm in the " Beyond this being the NEWEST thing, is it really worth the delta between my car's current value and the likely $65K it would cost for a new 3 with air/awd/most options?".

Ironically, the car that could make me splurge might be a wholly refreshed Model S!

In your case, it seems like the main thing the 3 has to offer is Autopilot and eventually FSDC. Whether those are enough to be worth the cost difference and the other tradeoffs you noted, you'll have to decide. After the last 20 months, I'd find it very hard to buy a car without AP or something comparable in the future, but not everyone feels that way.

 

[9erDog]

We are kind of in that camp of being admirers but leaning away from a Tesla for the next car. It’s one of the reasons we enjoy this forum. Knowledgeable people, EV enthusiasts, lots of perspectives. Angela and I both drive EV’s neither being a Tesla. We’ll be replacing one in a couple years but we are leaning away from the Tesla brand for a few reasons.

1. We decided we really like our hatchback leaf and won’t be happy with a 4 door coupe even though 3 looks awesome. Can’t afford an X.

2. Too far from a service centre for a potentially quirky car. (Leafs just don’t seem to ever fail...exaggeration yes I know).

3. Price. This last one might not be an issue if there is a low cost model y available some day but it probably won’t be available in ttwo years.

I will continue to admire Tesla’s, take part in events where I can and be envious of the many happy owners of these amazing cars.

We own a 2012 Leaf and have been generally happy with it. However we’ve had to fix a water pump, replace the TCU that handles connectivity (moving from 2G to 3G), and replace the main batteries after 62,500 miles. In addition the App has never worked consistently for the past 3 years. I still drive it every day for my commute. My previous car (2005 Acura TL) never gave us this much trouble and my neighbor’s daughter still drives it around. I’m not expecting the Model 3 to be any more reliable than the Leaf and definitely see the advantages it offers. I will happily order when my turn comes. At the same time, I understand that not everyone feels the same way and everyone makes their own choices that make sense for them. David - hope you find a great car that fits your needs.

 

[Sportstick]

After the last 20 months, I'd find it very hard to buy a car without AP or something comparable in the future, but not everyone feels that way.

Thank you for recognizing that...some feel it's the only solution. As long as I am capable/competent to drive, I hope to never have autopilot/autonomous vehicle. One day, I'll be old enough not to be able to enjoy the daily drive anymore, and will appreciate the technology to get me where I want to go, but until then, I'm still enjoying that at least one of my cars is a stick!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We own a 2012 Leaf and have been generally happy with it. However we’ve had to fix a water pump, replace the TCU that handles connectivity (moving from 2G to 3G), and replace the main batteries after 62,500 miles. In addition the App has never worked consistently for the past 3 years. I still drive it every day for my commute. My previous car (2005 Acura TL) never gave us this much trouble and my neighbor’s daughter still drives it around. I’m not expecting the Model 3 to be any more reliable than the Leaf and definitely see the advantages it offers. I will happily order when my turn comes. At the same time, I understand that not everyone feels the same way and everyone makes their own choices that make sense for them. David - hope you find a great car that fits your needs.

Yah i knew the never fail thing was an exaggeration. We have only had ours a couple years so too early to tell. So far so good though. Angelas smart ED convertible is three years old and has never had a thing go wrong or even been back to the dealer. Great little car. But a throw away if the battery fails out of warranty as the battery is 20 grand. It is actually the car we will replace in a couple years with a long range new leaf. Love the car but it will be time to move on by then.