It still is Tesla = Camry for the $35k model without fed tax credits as long as you factor in residual value, fuel savings and maintenance. I have done the math on this forum a dozen times, not doing it again. Gene Munster did a similar analysis that you can search for as well, but left out some factors such as residual value. Adding solar to the equation can bring the base model 3 inline with a Corolla if you in own long enough (10 years).
And don't forget that every day-one reservation holder should have at least some tax credit. There is also a legitimate push to fix the tax credit as it is going to unfairly benefit those European and Chinese companies that have large import duties on us cars and who never did anything to push EVs forward. In fact they have had to be dragged kicking and screaming (crying really) into EVs.
I believe Tesla had the right formula to make people do the match on TCO to see the value of the model 3 vs your average Camry or Accord.
I looked at the Gene Munster analysis:
Model 3 Could Change The World: A Cost Of Ownership Study | Loup Ventures, and I find it problematic, for the following reasons:
(1) The maintenance costs in the Toyota Camry are listed as $495 in the first year, $443 in the second year, and $443 in the third year, for a person driving 13,476 miles/year. This seems excessive to me. 13.5k miles/year would typically require 2 oil changes for the 0w-20 semi-synthetic oils used today. This is about $30/change. Brake pads on a Camry won't be worn out after 40k miles, unless the driver is really abusing them. Munster's analysis seems to account for a tire change in Year 4 maintenance, which seems reasonable to me. Just from life experience and many years driving Japanese brand sedans, I cannot recall ever spending anything close to $1300 on maintenance items in the first 3 years of ownership.
We also don't have enough data on tire wear in the Model 3, but I am fairly sure that a RWD sport sedan with a very torquey electric motor will consume tires at a greater rate than a FWD Camry.
(2) Repairs. Munster allocates $99 in repairs for the Camry in Year 3, $238 in Year 4, and $346 in Year 5. He allocates nothing for the Model 3. Given the high maintenance cost of Model S, I am skeptical that Model 3s, especially early production units, will be as repair free as he expects, especially after the 4-year bumper-to-bumper warranty runs out.
(3) Insurance. Camry and Model 3 are estimated to have similar insurance rates. I am skeptical of this. I believe that Model 3 is likely to be a safer car than the Camry (no engine block, lower chance of rollover due to battery, better sensor suite for collision mitigation), but the extent to which this is offset by high repair costs and driver demographics is unknown. Model S has proven to be expensive to repair. Model 3 components, at least initially, will be hard to come by and probably expensive. If the population of Model 3 drivers proves to be more aggressive and accident prone than the Camry driver population, insurance rates will rise accordingly.
Finally, one should consider that initial cash outlay is an issue. Even if we assume that Model 3 is less expensive over a total ownership period, many people cannot afford a big upfront cost. I expect Model 3 to win some sales from Camry/Accord buyers who are willing to stretch and like new technology, but my expectation is also that the bulk of Model 3 sales will be conversions from BMW 3, Audi A4, and MB C-Class, and equivalent customers.
When people see how sexy it looks and how fun it is to drive, they will get real good at math all the sudden. And they will find ways to justify it. Like no more Starbucks or cheap cellphones every two years instead of a new $1k iPhone every year. Or packing healthy lunch instead of eating out.
I have a much dimmer view of what will happen. People won't get good at math. They will simply take on more debt. Many of my friends and colleagues are highly educated people who are really terrible at managing money, but this is not Tesla's fault. Tesla, rather than Audi or BMW, will simply be the beneficiary.