Canceling my reservation

[Reciprocity]

As I mentioned in my post, the J-series V6 still uses a timing belt (incidently, with a 7-year, 105k service interval). Is this a 4th Generation (MY 2011-2017) van? That particular incarnation has a reputation for not being as polished as others. The design team on this one was the first to be entirely North American based.

It really doesnt matter which crappy moving parts fail, they fail. Even a timing chain. How much is a gosh darn valve cover seal.. I dont know what your argument is. The point is that the longer you own the car the more work it needs and in many cases, its almost like things are designed to fail. There are hundreds and hundreds of parts that will need repair or replacement on an ICEv over its life and far fewer on an EV. ICEv are more expensive to own long term. From my experience, if you have a 5 year loan, your average car is fine for that 5 years but starts to need work on a regular basis after that point. That is my experience over 30 years of owning vehicles. This is also why Hybrids arent that great when it comes to long term maintenance either.

 

[diamond.g]

Right now, the 2019 Leaf looks like the best fit. 2019, because it will have thermal management. Big vs Big: the Leaf is shorter and narrower, but it has more interior space than the Model 3. The charge point is in front, the technology package is half the price of Tesla's EAP and all of the software works, now.

Have I been paying attention? Yes, the latest push back on the SD model was the last straw. As a stockholder I am concerned that Tesla has set themselves up for a major class action suit. They have been advertising a $35K car for almost five years ($27K with the tax credit) and there are probably tens of thousands of people who made reservations based on that price point, but I will be surprised if it happens. Even if it does, no one buying the SD will get more than a sniff of the tax credit.

Why not the Bolt?

 

[T34ME]

Yes, maybe if you were much younger and texted while driving like virtually all younger people do this would be the car for you. I must admit I have wondered if old guys like you and me should be driving Teslas. In fact I think I may sell both my S and 3 and get something more age appropriate.

You guys aren't old like I am! If I bought something for myself a conveyance that was age appropriate, it would be a mobility scooter! Naw, I'm gonna configure that model 3 next month and modify it like a ricer, and then I'm gonna buy a second one when model 3 ludicrous comes out and terrorize Colorado Blvd! And, BTW, I don't own a smart phone with a sim card so no texting for me while I am driving.

 

[sooner]

My reservation is moving on up! Slowly but surely.

 

[T34ME]

The Model 3 and it’s “take your eyes off the road” interface are built for a future that isn’t here yet: when the car is doing the driving. Until then, it’s unsafe.

It is obvious you haven't driven one yet. But keep trying.

 

[kotykb]

I have an April-June Delivery, Do I order in April/May and they delivery in June?

 

[drawfour]

It is obvious you haven't driven one yet. But keep trying.

My wife's 2010 Prius has nothing behind the steering wheel. The speedometer is in the center dash, perhaps one inch higher than where it is in the Model 3. but further to the right. Also, the navigation system looks to me to be around the same position as in the Model 3. I haven't driven a Model 3 yet (I'm a 4/1 reservation holder, so I'm still looking at a ways out until I can get the AWD), but from when I sat in it at the showroom, I immediately became less concerned about the location of the speedometer and other settings.

 

[Carnook]

It is obvious you haven't driven one yet. But keep trying.

It is obvious that you don't know me. But keep trying.

 

[adaptabl]

Your lease for a minivan is not a lease for a Toyota Camry. Toyota Deals | New Toyota Incentives & Special Offers Toyota leases cover normal factory maintenance for the first 2 years. There is no "required maintenance package" for this car. $1300 for regular maintenance on a car of this type is absurd.

I have driven Civics and Accords for the past 25 years, and have followed the maintenance schedules precisely. I have never, ever, spent $1300 in the first 3 years for maintenance.




The vast majority of cars sold today do not having timing belts.

Honda has not sold a 4-cylinder car with a timing belt in the US since 2005, when the D-series motor was finally phased out. R, K, and L series motors all use timing chains. While Honda's J-series V6 uses a timing belt, it is being replaced by turbocharged K-series motors that use timing chains. Toyota has similarly moved away from timing belts. Almost every Toyota built in the past 10 years uses a timing chain that does not need to be replaced: Does my vehicle have a timing belt or timing chain?

100,000 mile valve checks don't necessarily result in any work needing to be done. One of my Accords did about 180k miles without needing a tuneup. It ran just as well and as efficiently as when it was new. It would probably still be running today if it hadn't been hit and totaled by an unlicensed driver. Still had the original cat too. Now, stuff did need to be repaired. Rubber coolant hoses cracked and needed to be replaced. Electronics failed (airbag computer broke after 12 years). Small motors that controlled power accessories wore out. Shocks started to go bad. The thing is, Tesla vehicles also have these components, and I don't think they are immune to failures of these kinds over the long haul. Corrosion is also a concern. Less so in the Model S and X, which are overwhelmingly aluminum, but Model 3 has steel unibody components that could be susceptible to corrosion. There are plenty of Mazda and Honda cars out there that still run, but are rusted out to the point where they can't pass inspection.

I agree that FSD could add a lot of residual value to Model 3, but it is my belief that people may be drastically understating Model 3's future maintenance costs. We just won't know for at least a decade how this will pan out.

The Problem is although there are fewer moving parts the parts that tend to need replacing are very expensive on a Tesla. How many Drive motors and batteries have been replaced under warranty? Once the warranty runs out those cars will be junk if those fail as the cost to repair may exceed the cost of the car. Even small things are very expensive on a Tesla compared to an ICE car like brake rotors and pads. An E-brake assembly is about $1000.00 for one wheel.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The Problem is although there are fewer moving parts the parts that tend to need replacing are very expensive on a Tesla. How many Drive motors and batteries have been replaced under warranty? Once the warranty runs out those cars will be junk if those fail as the cost to repair may exceed the cost of the car. Even small things are very expensive on a Tesla compared to an ICE car like brake rotors and pads. An E-brake assembly is about $1000.00 for one wheel.

This is unfortunately because of low volume production. If Tesla reaches economies of scale similar to other big car makers, the price of replacement parts will plummet.

In the short term though, yes, repair will be expensive.

 

[McRat]

When enough of certain model car are built, an aftermarket is created for rebuilt or second source spares.
I imagine this will happen with Tesla drive units.

 

[dhanson865]

They have been advertising a $35K car for almost five years ($27K with the tax credit) and there are probably tens of thousands of people who made reservations based on that price point, but I will be surprised if it happens. Even if it does, no one buying the SD will get more than a sniff of the tax credit.

As I said in another thread I've never qualified for the full $7,500 anyway

So everyone has been up in arms about Model3 vs the $7,500 tax credit phase out. I just did my 2017 taxes and I thought I'd look at the past few years to see what tax liability I've seen to have an idea what 2018 or 2019 could be if I want to use the credit.

2017 3,369 before credits, 1,863 after credits
2016 3,561 before credits, 1,861 after credits
2015 3,656 before credits, 3,456 after credits
2014 5,156

So those of you that can take a $7,500 credit go for it. I have no problem waiting for that credit to drop to $3,750.

I fully expect for someone else to be able to use the $3750 credit on the base Model 3. I don't expect I'll be able to primarily because I don't have a reservation.

I don't know if I'll end up buying a Model 3 new in a couple of years, grabbing a 2018 CPO when it's a couple of years old, or just finding a used Model 3 outside the CPO program. Whatever my path I'm still watching the tax credit situation because that seems to be all people want to talk about some days.

Tesla never promised $7,500 credit for the Base Model 3 and even if it were still around I'd expect most of the buyers of the base $35,000 version to not have the tax liability needed to claim the full $7,500.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

The Problem is although there are fewer moving parts the parts that tend to need replacing are very expensive on a Tesla. How many Drive motors and batteries have been replaced under warranty? Once the warranty runs out those cars will be junk if those fail as the cost to repair may exceed the cost of the car. Even small things are very expensive on a Tesla compared to an ICE car like brake rotors and pads. An E-brake assembly is about $1000.00 for one wheel.

IMO, the product of cost and failure rate over time is what matters. If a particular part is relatively reliable, it may be expensive, but odds are most owners won't need to replace it, and even if they do, the part being reliable implies there will likely be a decent supply of much lower cost working parts off of salvage cars.

Tesla Model S (2012-2016) OEM Right + Left Rear Brembo E-Brake Calipers | eBay

Expensive+low failure rate is OK, and cheap+high failure is OK (but annoying). It's expensive+high failure rate that gets you.

 

[MXWing]

Right now, the 2019 Leaf looks like the best fit. 2019, because it will have thermal management. Big vs Big: the Leaf is shorter and narrower, but it has more interior space than the Model 3. The charge point is in front, the technology package is half the price of Tesla's EAP and all of the software works, now.

Have I been paying attention? Yes, the latest push back on the SD model was the last straw. As a stockholder I am concerned that Tesla has set themselves up for a major class action suit. They have been advertising a $35K car for almost five years ($27K with the tax credit) and there are probably tens of thousands of people who made reservations based on that price point, but I will be surprised if it happens. Even if it does, no one buying the SD will get more than a sniff of the tax credit.

There's enough issues without you needing to generate extra fear, uncertainty and doubt.

There is no basis for a lawsuit because there are not any damages. You can get your deposit refunded. How many concerts get cancelled everyday with tickets refunded?

I would buy the SD Tesla WITHOUT a tax credit based a straight up comparison with a 3 Series, A4, C class, etc ICE.

Lastly, there is a bit of disillusion to think Tesla's $8000/min burn isn't going to eventually result in EAP crushing Propilot by monumental leaps with Elon and Karpathy cracking the whip. Tesla finally caught up to MobileEye, a 30 billion dollar company by itself.

 

[MXWing]

"WOW! I can't believe there is a motherfrieken LEAF/BOLT/VOLT in my garage!!!!!!!", said NO ONE ever.

 

[daniel]

... If money is no object, go for a Model S or X without all of the Model 3 quirks...

Nope. S and X are too big for me. Model 3 is a wonderful car. Yes, there are a few quirks. And I'd like it to be smaller, with a regular roof and hatchback for increased interior space. But the good far outweighs the bad. Clearly, it's not for everyone. But then, no car is. (Which, by the way, is why I write about the bad with the good. I want prospective buyers to know what's good about the car, and what's bad about it, so that they make an informed choice and fewer people end up with a car that is not right for them.)

And some folks who have both actually like the 3 more than the S or X.

I have an April-June Delivery, Do I order in April/May and they delivery in June?

I had a December-February delivery estimate. I got the invitation near the end of January but waited a few days to order. I ordered near the beginning of February and could have taken delivery just before the end of February but I wanted them to ship it to me, which meant I got the car a few days later, on March 1.

When I placed my order they said 4 weeks until delivery. It was 3 1/2 weeks later that I could have picked it up at the delivery center. I had the car 4 weeks minus one day after I placed my order. There was no extra charge to ship it to me in an enclosed truck.

 

[Tonymil]

It is obvious you haven't driven one yet. But keep trying.

I agree with Carnook. It's the combination of flawed technology and flawed human nature that will make autopilot dangerous for quite some time. The technology will miss things, like the white truck that the Tesla hit and the pedestrian crossing the road that the Uber car hit. In both cases, had the "driver" been paying attention, the accidents could have been avoided. But it is human nature to become complacent when it appears that technology is working, so we don't have to. The Uber driver was looking down instead of at the road for a full five seconds before the car hit the pedestrian. And that's what we humans do,

It isn't enough to say that the problem isn't the technology, it's the individual.. The technology has to reach the point of being "idiot proof" before it can be relied on. We're talking about tons of metal hurtling at speeds that will kill. And frankly, the manufacturers are limited in their ability to anticipate every scenario in which the technology will fail. It's going to keep happening.

 

[Foxhound199]

This is just one anecdotal account, but it might be useful: I'm in my 30s, so sort of an inbetween generation in regards to facility with all things digital vs analog. There's something I've always felt comforting about physical buttons, knobs, switches, and you won't ever catch me using my wife's iPad. I was skeptical of the loss of buttons, and I was skeptical of the loss of the instrument cluster.

I've had the car for about two weeks, and find the usability incredibly intuitive and not at all distracting. It was interesting jumping back over to our Subaru, which we've owned for several years, and find myself still bewildered by their choice of knob locations and their labyrinth of screen menus. adjusting the climate settings on the Subaru--even with knobs--took my eyes off the road much longer than Tesla's menu. Now, I do feel that the Subaru's interface was particularly bad compared to most cars I've owned, but every day I am convinced more and more that what at first glance appears to be a hastily mounted iPad in your face is actually an incredibly well thought-out and usable improvement to the driving interface.

 

[brkaus]

I agree with Carnook. It's the combination of flawed technology and flawed human nature that will make autopilot dangerous for quite some time. The technology will miss things, like the white truck that the Tesla hit and the pedestrian crossing the road that the Uber car hit. In both cases, had the "driver" been paying attention, the accidents could have been avoided. But it is human nature to become complacent when it appears that technology is working, so we don't have to. The Uber driver was looking down instead of at the road for a full five seconds before the car hit the pedestrian. And that's what we humans do,

It isn't enough to say that the problem isn't the technology, it's the individual.. The technology has to reach the point of being "idiot proof" before it can be relied on. We're talking about tons of metal hurtling at speeds that will kill. And frankly, the manufacturers are limited in their ability to anticipate every scenario in which the technology will fail. It's going to keep happening.

Yup. The problem is the individual.

I was just reading the news. Front page article 1 - about the person who accidentally swerved and killed a bicyclist just got out of prison. Also front page - man (pedestrian) struck by vehicle. And to round it out - 10 people involved/injured in multiple vehicle accident.

None involved automation.

Heck - while I’m commenting. Saw a car fire two weeks ago. Pretty much destroyed the car. Never even made the news.

 

[adaptabl]

Right now, the 2019 Leaf looks like the best fit. 2019, because it will have thermal management. Big vs Big: the Leaf is shorter and narrower, but it has more interior space than the Model 3. The charge point is in front, the technology package is half the price of Tesla's EAP and all of the software works, now.

Have I been paying attention? Yes, the latest push back on the SD model was the last straw. As a stockholder I am concerned that Tesla has set themselves up for a major class action suit. They have been advertising a $35K car for almost five years ($27K with the tax credit) and there are probably tens of thousands of people who made reservations based on that price point, but I will be surprised if it happens. Even if it does, no one buying the SD will get more than a sniff of the tax credit.

I don't see a major class action suit but I do see a very large number of those 500,000 reservations cancelled. I suspect once they pass the 200,000 production number there will be no waiting list. I wonder if there is any Gross margin on a $35,000 Tesla model 3.