Cancelling my reservation

[Dr. J]

You can't quote the fossil fuel industry as a whole and talk about the impact it has, then say oh, tesla doesn't get cobalt from DRC so the harm cobalt mining causes is irrelevant.

Also regardless of where tesla gets it cobalt it doesn't change how it's mined, look up copper mining and tell me there is no environmental impact.

I think you're conflating environmental harm and subsidy. If the harm is required to fixed/paid for (and i have no idea one way or the other), then it's not a subsidy. So which are we talking about: environmental harm or subsidies (of which the externality of not having to remediate environmental harm is a component)?

 

[Dr. J]

I'm starting to think @LCR1 has me on Ignore. I've been poking the bear repeatedly with no response.

 

[NoTDI]

My reservation is cancelation proof. I was dumb enough to make 2 reservations. So if I get tempted and cancel one I still have another one. But I was also stupid so I went ahead and installed a 14-50 several months ago. If I was smart and stayed in bed on that 3-31 now I would have had a shiny new RS3 in the garage. Now that I know that I’m both dumb and stupid I have to wait till March-May 2018. I’m locked in and waiting.

 

[ZsoZso]

May I remind everyone that the first-day reservation holders (myself included) have put down their money with the following expectations:

1. Model 3 production will start by the end of 2017.
2. Production will be ramped up to 500k/year (10k/week) by 2020.

Only after seeing the huge number of reservations has Elon announced the acceleration of that plan.
Let's assume the current projections are still too optimistic and further delays will happen:
- the promised 5k/week will not be reached by the end of Q2, but half year later by end of 2018.
- further ramp to 10k/week will slide a full year later than the accelerated plan, to the end of 2019.

Even in this doom & gloom scenario, the production ramp is a full year faster than what was expected when we put our money down for reservation!!!

So relax, take a deep breath and look at the big picture: Is there any viable alternative from any other manufacturer ?
Nope, just lots of PPT and promises for 2020-2022 time-frame.
(and no the Bolt does not count as a viable alternative, sorry!)

 

[harry]

Based on everything I have read and heard, I am almost certainly going to cancel our Model 3 Reservation, even though we got our invitation to configure a couple of weeks ago.

I have no problem putting up $1,000 for a period of time (we put up money years before we even saw a Model S Signature, for example). Interest rates are trivial in today's market, after all

I have no problem with delays and late deliveries. Any of who have been here from before the Model S deliveries began have learned to expect delays.

I DO care about driving a car that gets me from here to there in comfort with minimal damage to our planet.

These are the problems I have with my expectations for the Model 3 – again, based on reviews and forum info:

1. I don't want a "tight" suspension -- unpleasant bumping down the road feeling every expansion joint and minor road imperfection. I've driven several P85+ loaners and thought the ride was abysmal.

2. I don't want steering which mimics that of my 1050 Ford.

3. I don't want an un-ergonomic touchscreen which requires multiple eyes-off-the-road interactions to perform the simplest driving operations. The focus on driverless operation is years away, but that is the only way this touchscreen implementation would be tolerable.

Of course, no one cares about a single cancellation. My concern is that people who buy the overwhelming percentage of cars in North America -- people who don't drive rallies, road-races, etc. -- may feel similarly. Hopefully that is incorrect and just a reflection of an eccentric and inflated ego. That would be great.

 

[LCR1]

I think you're conflating environmental harm and subsidy. If the harm is required to fixed/paid for (and i have no idea one way or the other), then it's not a subsidy. So which are we talking about: environmental harm or subsidies (of which the externality of not having to remediate environmental harm is a component)?

The original comment from was that ICE /oil is being subsidized at the cost of the environment and peoples health.

"It's the hidden environmental costs that go unaccounted in the price of gasoline cars and petroleum, making them cheap and encouraging their use, but leading to more pollution, health costs, taxes that will need to be paid for."

I'm simply saying that EV has it's effect on the environment and peoples health. And to dive down deeper it doesn't matter where Tesla gets it's cobalt they still use it and encourage other to use it. The statement was EV vs oil not Exxon vs Tesla. Also, the more cobalt Tesla buys from "conflict free" places the more others need to buy from conflicted places.

 

[Dr. J]

The original comment from was that ICE /oil is being subsidized at the cost of the environment and peoples health.

"It's the hidden environmental costs that go unaccounted in the price of gasoline cars and petroleum, making them cheap and encouraging their use, but leading to more pollution, health costs, taxes that will need to be paid for."

I'm simply saying that EV has it's effect on the environment and peoples health. And to dive down deeper it doesn't matter where Tesla gets it's cobalt they still use it and encourage other to use it. The statement was EV vs oil not Exxon vs Tesla. Also, the more cobalt Tesla buys from "conflict free" places the more others need to buy from conflicted places.

Well, I'm glad to know at least I'm not on Ignore. Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

Based on everything I have read and heard, I am almost certainly going to cancel our Model 3 Reservation, even though we got our invitation to configure a couple of weeks ago.

I have no problem putting up $1,000 for a period of time (we put up money years before we even saw a Model S Signature, for example). Interest rates are trivial in today's market, after all

I have no problem with delays and late deliveries. Any of who have been here from before the Model S deliveries began have learned to expect delays.

I DO care about driving a car that gets me from here to there in comfort with minimal damage to our planet.

These are the problems I have with my expectations for the Model 3 – again, based on reviews and forum info:

1. I don't want a "tight" suspension -- unpleasant bumping down the road feeling every expansion joint and minor road imperfection. I've driven several P85+ loaners and thought the ride was abysmal.

2. I don't want steering which mimics that of my 1050 Ford.

3. I don't want an un-ergonomic touchscreen which requires multiple eyes-off-the-road interactions to perform the simplest driving operations. The focus on driverless operation is years away, but that is the only way this touchscreen implementation would be tolerable.

Of course, no one cares about a single cancellation. My concern is that people who buy the overwhelming percentage of cars in North America -- people who don't drive rallies, road-races, etc. -- may feel similarly. Hopefully that is incorrect and just a reflection of an eccentric and inflated ego. That would be great.

This is both thoughtful and informative. Model 3, and all BEV's for that matter, especially from Tesla demand alterations in driving behaviour from ICE. Some people are ready to take the plunge, others are not. Within a few years there will be less adaptation required.

In the meantime I don't think anybody should take a Model 3 unless they're excited about it.

OTOH, I'd recommend finding one somewhere to drive prior to cancelling since you've waited so long, and make sure you drive one with 18" wheels, NOT the optional ones. You'll find the ride much better. I am biased, of course, I did drive one and I am waiting for AWD instead.

 

[LCR1]

This is both thoughtful and informative. Model 3, and all BEV's for that matter, especially from Tesla demand alterations in driving behaviour from ICE. Some people are ready to take the plunge, others are not. Within a few years there will be less adaptation required.
....

What changes are required?

 

[pdxrob]

We will probably be leasing a 2018 RDX, Q5, or XC60 this weekend

There are hybrid versions of all of those SUVs AFAIK. The XC60 T8 even has 15-20 miles plug-in range and is a beast.

Also, the XC40 just came out, and while it's a little too uber-trendy-urban for me, it looks like a great smaller SUV (although the front suspension is worse than the XC60 and prone to torque steer if you have a lead foot).

 

[N5329K]

Completed the cancellation. Good luck, everyone!
Robin

 

[ℬête Noire]

I would look closely at the Chevy Bolt. in is an EV, it is well reviewed, you get similar range as the Model 3 (no supercharging, so your road tripping abilities are limited, but you have a second car for that.) And you can collect the $7,500 tax credit no problem.

+

They don't have nearly the same "fuel economy" as the Model 3, unless you are driving city streets. The base model without options is $35-ish (as long as you ignore dealership pitches to up-sell you on whatever it is they are selling). I probably wouldn't even bother with the $750 DC Fast, in fact I didn't in my particular situation because it's a designated commuter so I only charge at home. The DC Fast options in your area might be different but working through it I just couldn't see ever taking the Bolt on a "road trip". *shrug*

oh.. wait...

if you really are stretching your budget to buy the base Model 3, are you sure you have enough annual tax liabilty to claim the entire $7,500 tax credit? I would speak to an accountant. I used drive a leased Chevy Volt and would hang out at the GM-Volt.com forum where you often got posts saying things like "I don't think I qualify for the full $7,00 tax credit" or "my credit isn't that good" -- I expect to see much more such post on TMC as Model 3 production hits its stride and non Tesla owners are given the option to configure.

+ + +

Very much this, although there are ways to juggle things to create tax liability you can then use. For example if you have something of a 401K I believe you can roll it over to a Roth and create tax liability in the current year. The benefit is that you've now gotten money out of the 401K that you'd be potentially paying taxes on in the future and into a Roth that's now a tax-free retirement savings.

This rebate program was written about 10 years ago, and that's a long time for economic legislation to stay relevant without a refresh. It wasn't really designed for the EV market as it is now.

 

[gregincal]

These are the problems I have with my expectations for the Model 3 – again, based on reviews and forum info:

Of course you could wait and take a test drive and see for yourself. But yes, sometimes I feel reading these forums like people are extremely upset at having to wait for a car that is too expensive that they will hate. Cancelling is fine, but in the end only you can decide how you will like the car. Me, I love it.

 

[Beckler]

This is a very simple process. The invisible button to the left of the lightbulb is the "I don't care" button. I use it all the time.

It's actually Ctrl+W in most browsers.

 

[Hertog_Martin]

Still can't really blame Tesla that much.
Was looking to lease a Audi A3 last October in the Netherlands. Was told delivery would be in March due to production problems. That's half a year wait from a experienced mass manufacturer on a car model that has been out for a long time. And you hear nobody about it.

Tesla had 3 months delay on their first mass produced new technology car and the world grabbed their pitchforks.

Although this extra delay is pushing it a bit.. I still vouch for Tesla until someone does it better

 

[ℬête Noire]

Typical, Someone complains about the the fictitious subsidies to the oil industry but can't seem to figure out what they actually are. You can't say we need more EV credits to off set the oil industry credits if there are no oil credits.

I've worked in various aspects of oil & gas (upstream and midstream) over the years, family still draws income from the o&g service industry. They are there. How you count the magnitude in $ term equivalent, and what their ultimate impact at the end, is certainly debatable but it is some sort of cocktail of naive and deceitful that would lead someone to claim they don't substantially exist.

 

[swaltner]

You can mark posts Like, Funny, etc. Really need the ability to "who cares" a post.

I am ecstatic that this post got exactly one of each of the possible ratings. Everyone, thank you for working as a team!

 

[u00mem9]

I'm not talking about working on it. That's not salt in the wound.

I'm not saying they shouldn't work on it, however with a 400+ backlog of Model 3 waiters.....to introduce an article talking about the "Production of the Model Y" is just not a good idea. They can't even produce the Model 3 to care for their current backlog.

Its like having a child and not caring for it the way you promised.....then putting out a blurb about how you have such great ideas about caring for the next one in the birth canal.

Or like going on and on about automotive factories making cars at X m/s when your factory can’t make more that a couple thousand per quarter. Embarrassing.

I think Elon needs to be introduced to the concept of figure-of-merit, because just like their discussion of battery cells per unit volume of factory, they don’t seem to get it.

 

[iwannam3]

Typical, Someone complains about the the fictitious subsidies to the oil industry but can't seem to figure out what they actually are. You can't say we need more EV credits to off set the oil industry credits if there are no oil credits.

Oil depletion allowance - Wikipedia They can write off more than the value of the asset. Exxon etc do not waste the $millions spent lobbying.

It Is Time to Phase Out 9 Unnecessary Oil and Gas Tax Breaks - Center for American Progress

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Very much this, although there are ways to juggle things to create tax liability you can then use. For example if you have something of a 401K I believe you can roll it over to a Roth and create tax liability in the current year. The benefit is that you've now gotten money out of the 401K that you'd be potentially paying taxes on in the future and into a Roth that's now a tax-free retirement savings.

It's even better than that. If you want, you can withdrawl the principal from the Roth without penalty/taxes after five years, which you can't do with a 401k.