Car and Driver mag thinks Elon is sweating bullets over the Bolt

[Shock-On-T]

EV depreciation is still an unknown quantity, because existing EVs don't represent future EVs.
We have low range, niche models like Leafs and iMievs which are only suitable for enthusiasts, and then we have prestige, expensive Model S and X.
Future EVs will be high volume, mass market, medium-priced vehicles. This has never been seen before, so any estimate of market impact is little more than a guess.

We are on the edge of a huge change in the automotive industry. It may well be that in 8 years time ICE vehicles will be almost worthless, an embarrassment to own.

And also, the estimate of October 2019 for Model 3 deliveries is unsupported by the data. Tesla estimates about a year from now, this estimate is about 3 years from now. Huge difference. The big investors who've seen Tesla's detailed plans have remained confident in Tesla's time estimates. Not sure how C&D has obtained better information to triple this estimate.

 

[ecarfan]

Here is the info on the Model 3 published 8/9/16 Clearly states Model 3 will be 2 years late. Having said that it's not a knock on Tesla but using some "formula" to predict the M3 release. Worth the read. I hope they are wrong
Car and Driver predicts Tesla Model 3 will be 2 years late ... - Electrek

Thanks for the link. Oddly, Electrek did not link to the Car and Driver article they were quoting, perhaps because it was only in print and not online (Print only! That is so last century...). The "formula" is clearly satirical and I think Car and Driver was just joking. Or they are dumber than I thought.

 

[Jeff N]

The Bolt is the world's best Leaf. There's no doubt that it's an engineering triumph in its own right (thanks LG!) and that it will sell well as compared to EVs in that price bracket from 2010-2016. When propulsion method is removed from the equation, the Bolt will unfortunately be competing with Honda Fits and Chevy Sonics and Nissan Versas. It is competing in a segment that is incredibly price sensitive with a body style that screams "$99/mo!" The car's sole virtue will be that it's electric.

But that is, admittedly, a huge advantage right? Electric propulsion is much better than an awkward clunky gas engine. The Bolt also has some features that Tesla hasn't had so far with its surround vision and camera-based rear view mirror.

There's still no thermal management on a Leaf. I consider "thermal management" to be liquid cooling and not a fan. 2011 to 2016 Leafs all use a fan

Nope, not even a fan. It's entirely passive. The small electric van that uses the LEAF propulsion parts does use an active air fan to cool the battery but not the LEAF, as far as I know.

 

[xav-]

And the Leaf depreciated a lot because the early versions lacked thermal management of the pack, so pack life was much shorter than it should have been.

Did they really help save the planet after all? Most will end up in the junk yard in a year or two and importantly they really gave electric cars a bad name. Thank god tesla helped change that.

 

[xav-]

C/D seems to be entirely misunderstanding what Tesla is attempting to do here.

The Model 3 is meant to be a competitor to the Audi A4, BMW 3 Series, and Mercedes-Benz C Class. Tesla intends to compete with these automobiles regardless of propulsion method and at the same price point, whether or not tax credits expire. They just want to make a better sports sedan (it happens to be electric). There is huge, profitable volume in this segment and customers care more about performance and dynamics than price variation.

The Bolt is the world's best Leaf. There's no doubt that it's an engineering triumph in its own right (thanks LG!) and that it will sell well as compared to EVs in that price bracket from 2010-2016. When propulsion method is removed from the equation, the Bolt will unfortunately be competing with Honda Fits and Chevy Sonics and Nissan Versas. It is competing in a segment that is incredibly price sensitive with a body style that screams "$99/mo!" The car's sole virtue will be that it's electric.

Just like the Germans were positively blindsided by the Model S because they didn't understand where things were headed, the Americans and Japanese are about to be smacked upside the head by the same inherent trajectory of the market.

Elon isn't losing any sleep over the Bolt because he's busy building a sports sedan that is better than a 328i. It happens to be electric.

Bolt looks like a $30,000 focus in my opinion. Maybe it's great on the engineering side but it really sucks that GM did not spend more time making it look appealing. On the plus side it looks a little more real than the model 3 which seems very very remote.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

The leaf and imiev are the reasons for the depreciation. But their depreciation curve will slow down soon, once BYD builds LiFePo replacement batteries for the leaf! Or at least I hope they would!

 

[Krugerrand]

I did find interesting that according to C&D Mercedes Benz is working on an EV with the Tesla "skateboard" configuration. Did not know that.

Just heard a rather elaborate Mercedes ad on the radio the other day advertising a new EV they will be making. The ad specifically stated (more than once) that it would not be on the market before the end of this decade - as in not before 2020. But it's apparently coming and it's going to be amazing per the guy in the ad. It was the strangest ad I've ever heard.

 

[Canuck]

Did they really help save the planet after all? Most will end up in the junk yard in a year or two and importantly they really gave electric cars a bad name. Thank god tesla helped change that.

I never looked at it that way since we like our Leaf and it's a great fully electric car for short trips around town. But you do make a good point. Without Tesla, the Leaf makes electric cars look like a joke, not only with its low range, but also the lack of thermal management and battery degradation in hot climates, plus it's ugly.

I think that saying most will end up in the junk yard in a year or two is more than just a little exaggeration. In fact, a lot of people got new batteries under warranty, especially given the legal action, the others will be sold at rock bottom prices since they still serve a purpose for short trips around town when you have an ICE backup, and most families have more than one vehicle, but still you make a good point.

 

[cwerdna]

There's still no thermal management on a Leaf.

Yep.

I consider "thermal management" to be liquid cooling and not a fan. 2011 to 2016 Leafs all use a fan.

There's no fan. IIRC, some early packs on display had them but I'm pretty sure folks have found no fan inside, not even to circulate air inside the sealed pack.

They did go to "lizard" chemistry but reading over on the Leaf forms it doesn't seem to be making much of a difference.

Opinions and measurements from Leaf Spy have been mixed on this, so far. I haven't followed closely since I have '13 Leaf produced well before the "lizard" battery.

But yes, Leaf resale value is pretty bad, which makes things good for buyers of used ones. And, yes, the price distortion from $7500 Federal tax credit and state incentives (if applicable) doesn't help the perception.

 

[Canuck]

There's no fan. IIRC, some early packs on display had them but I'm pretty sure folks have found no fan inside, not even to circulate air inside the sealed pack.

Well you learn something new every day. I thought there was at least a fan. I swear I have heard it running but it must be something else.

 

[mark.lawler]

Opinion... One has to look at why the Leaf really depreciated so much. Four years ago gas was up there in price and people began taking out three year leases on the Leaf. Three years later all of these leases come up and gas prices had fallen to lowest level in years. Drivers turned them in and nobody wanted a used Leaf as gas was so cheap. Dealers were holding tons of used inventory nobody wanted. It wasn't that they were that bad, it was timing and macro econmics. That 70% number would have been far less had gas prices held steady or risen in those same three years.

 

[cwerdna]

Opinion... One has to look at why the Leaf really depreciated so much. Four years ago gas was up there in price and people began taking out three year leases on the Leaf. Three years later all of these leases come up and gas prices had fallen to lowest level in years. Drivers turned them in and nobody wanted a used Leaf as gas was so cheap. Dealers were holding tons of used inventory nobody wanted. It wasn't that they were that bad, it was timing and macro econmics. That 70% number would have been far less had gas prices held steady or risen in those same three years.

There's more to it than that. My used '13 Leaf was a 2-year lease return (original in-service date around end of 6/2013). My former leased Leaf was also a 2-year, lease began around end of July 2013.

I bought my used Leaf in July 2015. Per Average Energy Prices, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose – July 2016 : Western Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, average gas price in my area in July 2015 was $3.523/gal.

I can't speak to dealer inventory of used Leaf, but I bought mine used. My used car dealer went Manheim auctions (Media Releases) which happen every 2 weeks. At the time, I believe that used car dealer only had a few older than model year 2013 cars on the lot. I saw one '13 that he got a few days after I contacted him (initially he had 0).

I got a list from him of cars (VIN, color, trim level, mileage, packages, etc.) of used '13 Leafs in the next auction. I gave him the VIN of 2 I was interested in after running Carfax, Autocheck, looking at pics, etc. He won the bid on one and I picked it up a few days after he picked it up. He most definitely was not sitting on a ton of inventory. I didn't ask but I'd guess he had no more than 1-3 other Leafs.

My original '13 Leaf SV w/both packages (premium and QC + LED) was returned due to the nutty $20,601 residual value after 2 year/24K mile lease. I knew it was not going to be worth that much going into the lease. Nissan offered $6500 discounts on the buyout (e.g. Nissan Announces Up To $7,000 Credit For Buying Your Leased LEAF) back then. Still not good enough as it would've cost me $14,401 + tax including $300 purchase fee. It was $3K to $3.5K above used market price, so back the car went.

I bought a '13 SV w/premium only (built 5/2013 w/under 24K miles on the clock w/11 months of basic warranty left) only for $9,325 + tax and license from the above used car dealer. It sold for $8K at auction + $325 auction fees.

Oddly, used Leaf prices went up somewhat after I bought. There looked like a supply glut of off-lease Leafs back when I bought.

 

[RamgeRover]

In practice, yes (they advertise), but there's no existential crisis that prevents a car mag from praising EVs. As a subscriber to the largest three in the US, in general, I'd say Tesla has had more glowing car mag reviews than negative ones.

It's hard for me to fault the depreciation and range conclusions. The Model S and Roadster are doing OK, but have any of you looked at Leaf prices? I've seen 2-3 year old, loaded Leafs for $10k or less. That's pretty close to the 70% 3 year residual quoted. The reality is the EV resale values are going to be abysmal for quite awhile, particularly those with city car-style range.

I just had my 8 year old track car on the dyno a few months ago. It put down within 2% of the HP it did when it was 6 months old, and I get the same gas mileage I did back then (I've tracked every single fill-up for 8 years!).


With that addressed, I don't think Elon is scared of the Bolt. At all.

Leaf is a special case. Nissan rushed to market without a battery cooling system, and when early adopters in hot climates started losing capacity in massive chunks, all they got from Nissan was the finger.

Otherwise (I know this sounds funny), the Leaf is a terrific car. I can't afford two Teslas, and I don't want another ICE car, so I am going to take advantage of the low Leaf prices, along with Nissan's new capacity warranty and get a nice used Leaf along with a Model S 60.

 

[alloverx]

Just heard a rather elaborate Mercedes ad on the radio the other day advertising a new EV they will be making. The ad specifically stated (more than once) that it would not be on the market before the end of this decade - as in not before 2020. But it's apparently coming and it's going to be amazing per the guy in the ad. It was the strangest ad I've ever heard.

Actually GM had a skateboard concept car in 2002.
Forgotten Concept: 2002 GM Autonomy

 

[cwerdna]

Well you learn something new every day. I thought there was at least a fan. I swear I have heard it running but it must be something else.

It's probably something else. When charging, you're going to hear the pumps for the OBC. I've never heard the (radiator) fans turn on when charging, but they could.

Examples threads about fan or not fan:
Nissan Leaf Battery - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum
Cooling - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum
Cooling - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum
Leaf Battery Observations - Post Service Manual Find - My Nissan Leaf Forum

I just stumbled across

and

but haven't had time to watch yet. Don't see any fan from my glances thru it, yet.

 

[Canuck]

Yes, I googled it too when you told me there was no fan, to try to prove you wrong, but I read at some link that there was no fan. It really surprised me. I've told so many people the battery on the Leaf is only fan cooled, as opposed to my Tesla, which is liquid cooled. Now please don't tell me the Tesla is not liquid cooled!

 

[stopcrazypp]

Yes, I googled it too when you told me there was no fan, to try to prove you wrong, but I read at some link that there was no fan. It really surprised me. I've told so many people the battery on the Leaf is only fan cooled, as opposed to my Tesla, which is liquid cooled. Now please don't tell me the Tesla is not liquid cooled!

You may have gotten the Leaf pack confused with the e-NV200's pack, which does have a fan for cooling (it has a tiny radiator inside that is interfaced with the HVAC system).
Here's Why Nissan Employs Active Air Cooling In e-NV200 Battery Pack

As others mentioned, the Leaf pack never had a fan and Nissan's "solution" for hot weather was with improved cell chemistry (the "lizard" battery).

 

[BluestarE3]

Elon sweating bullets? No, but he'll have battery cells shooting out faster than machine gun bullets in the Gigafactory!

 

[Chopr147]

I could see buying myself a used Leaf in the $10,000 range if I were a LIRR commuter. Living on Long Island here every towns parking lot is full for commuters to NYC. No need to worry about dings etc....and plenty of range for that purpose. The Bolt? Too expensive for that purpose. Granted it's out earlier than the 3 but ANY person with a little knowledge and a choice between the 2 would be nuts to go with the Bolt. Same price, totally different car! The Bolt may be an engineering feat but look at it. The front end space is used up with the powertrain,inverter and what looks like from a distance, an engine.
Maybe I am just spoiled with my Tesla

 

[NikeWings]

" Bummer, I guess I'll just have to pay a lot more than $10k, and get a Tesla.

You mean........" Bummer, I guess I'll just have to pay a lot more than $10k, and get to live longer instead.[/QUOTE]