Car and Driver mag thinks Elon is sweating bullets over the Bolt

[Gizmotoy]

Leaf is a special case. Nissan rushed to market without a battery cooling system, and when early adopters in hot climates started losing capacity in massive chunks, all they got from Nissan was the finger.

Otherwise (I know this sounds funny), the Leaf is a terrific car. I can't afford two Teslas, and I don't want another ICE car, so I am going to take advantage of the low Leaf prices, along with Nissan's new capacity warranty and get a nice used Leaf along with a Model S 60.

It's not really a special case, though. All the citycar EVs are depreciating similarly. The point was that even the Leaf, the most successful and well-built example of the class, is susceptible to the above-average depreciation noted. Even those with the updated batteries. It affects not just compliance vehicles, but also ground-up EVs with low ranges.

This isn't to say the Leaf is a terrible car. Quite the contrary. We almost purchased one of said sub-$10k 2014 models, but ultimately decided on a bigger and safer car instead (for a lot more money ).

 

[xav-]

Leaf is a special case. Nissan rushed to market without a battery cooling system, and when early adopters in hot climates started losing capacity in massive chunks, all they got from Nissan was the finger.

Otherwise (I know this sounds funny), the Leaf is a terrific car. I can't afford two Teslas, and I don't want another ICE car, so I am going to take advantage of the low Leaf prices, along with Nissan's new capacity warranty and get a nice used Leaf along with a Model S 60.

There's more to it than that. My used '13 Leaf was a 2-year lease return (original in-service date around end of 6/2013). My former leased Leaf was also a 2-year, lease began around end of July 2013.

I bought my used Leaf in July 2015. Per Average Energy Prices, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose – July 2016 : Western Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, average gas price in my area in July 2015 was $3.523/gal.

I can't speak to dealer inventory of used Leaf, but I bought mine used. My used car dealer went Manheim auctions (Media Releases) which happen every 2 weeks. At the time, I believe that used car dealer only had a few older than model year 2013 cars on the lot. I saw one '13 that he got a few days after I contacted him (initially he had 0).

I got a list from him of cars (VIN, color, trim level, mileage, packages, etc.) of used '13 Leafs in the next auction. I gave him the VIN of 2 I was interested in after running Carfax, Autocheck, looking at pics, etc. He won the bid on one and I picked it up a few days after he picked it up. He most definitely was not sitting on a ton of inventory. I didn't ask but I'd guess he had no more than 1-3 other Leafs.

My original '13 Leaf SV w/both packages (premium and QC + LED) was returned due to the nutty $20,601 residual value after 2 year/24K mile lease. I knew it was not going to be worth that much going into the lease. Nissan offered $6500 discounts on the buyout (e.g. Nissan Announces Up To $7,000 Credit For Buying Your Leased LEAF) back then. Still not good enough as it would've cost me $14,401 + tax including $300 purchase fee. It was $3K to $3.5K above used market price, so back the car went.

I bought a '13 SV w/premium only (built 5/2013 w/under 24K miles on the clock w/11 months of basic warranty left) only for $9,325 + tax and license from the above used car dealer. It sold for $8K at auction + $325 auction fees.

Oddly, used Leaf prices went up somewhat after I bought. There looked like a supply glut of off-lease Leafs back when I bought.

$9k is still a lot of money considering some of these electric cars can be leased for $99 a month without too much down (e.g fiat 500e in my case). I believe this is very state specific though (CA in my case).

 

[cwerdna]

$9k is still a lot of money considering some of these electric cars can be leased for $99 a month without too much down (e.g fiat 500e in my case). I believe this is very state specific though (CA in my case).

Yeah, on/off there were some screaming deals on the Fiat 500e. For me, I got the middle trim level of Leaf w/premium package. Features like the 4 camera Around View Monitor (part of the premium package), Intelligent Key (Smart Key System in Toyota parlance) are simply not available on the Fiat 500e. And, nav on the 500e is almost like an afterthought.

When I hit end of lease on my first Leaf, I did consider and test drive the 500e. The deal at Group Buy Of Fiat 500e Electric Cars Ignites 'Feeding Frenzy,' 100-Plus Bought had ended a few months earlier and what I could get was nowhere near that good.

When I leased my 1st Leaf (SV w/both packages), my total cost of lease (not including registration for year 2 and insurance) was ~$7617 including tax, 1st year's registration and $395 disposition fee due at lease end if turning it in. At the end, I had no car. Another offer was to extend the lease by another year, 12 months for the price of 10, so I'd need to shell out another $3140 and would need new tires before turn in and still have no car at the end.

I figured w/the used Leaf, I'd still have a car after n # of years, and its value won't be $0 at the end either.

 

[sorka]

Article assumes the Model 3's will not be delivered before October 2019.

Only if he decides to add falcon wing doors

 

[sorka]

Another factor in depreciation is the $7.5k tax credit. A lot of calculations don't factor that in.

You mean because once it expires though of use who got it will essentially get bump in value since someone buying new won't be able to get it anymore?

 

[Chopr147]

Personally I think the EV's will not depreciate too much at all. Just my opinion but if EV's really take off in a couple years and the 3 is the catalyst, all other EV's will ride the wave as well. A glass half full vision of course but many who cannot afford a new car will be looking for the used ones.

 

[stopcrazypp]

You mean because once it expires though of use who got it will essentially get bump in value since someone buying new won't be able to get it anymore?

Not really. What I mean is that while it is still active, an EV is worth at maximum MSRP-$7.5k. That is a huge factor that affects depreciation.

As for after it expires, I don't see it necessarily giving a bump to previous vehicles (except cars of the same year), but rather no longer being a damper on used vehicle prices for EVs.

 

[sorka]

Not really. What I mean is that while it is still active, an EV is worth at maximum MSRP-$7.5k. That is a huge factor that affects depreciation.

As for after it expires, I don't see it necessarily giving a bump to previous vehicles (except cars of the same year), but rather no longer being a damper on used vehicle prices for EVs.

But it's really just the opposite. You and I got the $7500 so our cars brand new were MRSP - $7500 - $2500(in my case for a CA rebate I can no longer get).

When that all expires, I'm going to get a resale bump in value on my MS because new buyers coming in will no longer be able to get those incentives.

Another way to look at it, if those incentives never expire, then they certainly don't do anything to the value of the car. The value is always based how old it is after MSRP - INCENTIVES - depreciation.

After the incentives expire, all the used MS's will be worth MSRP - depreciation. It will be like the incentives never existed for those coming into the market and those that got it benefit when go to sell our used MS.

 

[stopcrazypp]

But it's really just the opposite. You and I got the $7500 so our cars brand new were MRSP - $7500 - $2500(in my case for a CA rebate I can no longer get).

When that all expires, I'm going to get a resale bump in value on my MS because new buyers coming in will no longer be able to get those incentives.

I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, so maybe my phrasing is bad. I'll use an example. The 2011 Leaf had a $32,780 MSRP, but was widely advertised/reported at the after-credit price of $25,280. Thus in the used car market, people would not buy a base Leaf for more than $25,280.

However, the depreciation calculations used by many (including NADA) look at only the MSRP, so they calculate essentially a 22.9% (7500/32780) depreciation rate out the gate, even though it is not an apples to apples comparison.
http://www.autoblog.com/2010/03/30/2011-nissan-leaf-us-pricing-officially-announced-as-low-as-25/

I don't know how it affects cars that are too far back, esp. ones that already have a significant amount of depreciation on top. There will probably be some bump after the credit expires, but definitely not a redirect $7.5k (plus whatever state incentives).

 

[sorka]

I think we are pretty much saying the same thing, so maybe my phrasing is bad. I'll use an example. The 2011 Leaf had a $32,780 MSRP, but was widely advertised/reported at the after-credit price of $25,280. Thus in the used car market, people would not buy a base Leaf for more than $25,280.

That's a very good example. I hadn't considered that shoppers who are coming into the market might have been looking for a long time and were aware that the cost had been less (maybe not even realizing the advertised cost already included the subtraction of incentives) and might be more resistant to paying more than the *could* have gotten it for the previous year or two ago.