Car and Driver Model 3 Test - Not Great

[cella]

I’m not sure how much easier GM could have made it for themselves. Much of the design and manufacturing was done by LG.

They can never do right, can they?

Also if this wasn’t a compliance car they would be selling it outside of compliance states.

2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV Now Available Nationwide

 

[hacer]

...
And yet they invested billions into these vehicles when they didn't have to.

Actually they did have to. Without their compliance cars, they wouldn't be able to meet CARB/EPA fleet requirements. Tesla doesn't make enough vehicles to sell credits to cover every other car maker's needs, so they essentially had no choice, other than giving up on profitably selling vehicles in the US.

 

[Swampgator]

I don't like this tendency to downplay every vehicle not made by Tesla by branding it a "compliance car". IMO neither the Volt nor the Bolt are "compliance cars", although Chevy is certainly not unhappy to receive ZEV credits.
The Volt was actually heavily advertised when it came out, and I have also seen ads for the Bolt. When EVs or PHEVs don't sell, it isn't always the result of a conspiracy ...
And yet they invested billions into these vehicles when they didn't have to.
That's not a GM problem, but a general EV problem. At this point in time they simply aren't price competitive with conventional cars. Everyone is making losses on them, and as long as that is the case there will not be a mass market. You can't run an industry on huge losses like the ones Tesla is incurring. Hopefully the inflection point where EVs become price competitive isn't too far away.

This kinda muddies the waters Cella.
As you know Tesla has a high gross margin on it's S and X vehicles. Second only to Porsche IIRC.
The reason Tesla is not profitable is because they spend so much on CAPEX, R&D, and thus D&A. They could choose NOT to grow, not to build Model 3, Roadster, Semi, etc.
This would make them very profitable as you are aware. Tesla CHOOSES to invest in the huge growth potential, including charging infrastructure and battery capacity because it sees even bigger returns down the road. GM for example invests next to nothing in charging and battery production, leaving this up to suppliers to provide. Yet, they still can't make money on the Bolt.

 

[cella]

This kinda muddies the waters Cella.
As you know Tesla has a high gross margin on it's S and X vehicles. Second only to Porsche IIRC.

High price luxury cars always have big margins. But this discussion is about the mass market that Tesla wants to break into.

The reason Tesla is not profitable is because they spend so much on CAPEX, R&D, and thus D&A. They could choose NOT to grow, not to build Model 3, Roadster, Semi, etc.

Sure, they could have stayed a tiny niche company a la Fisker. But that isn't their goal. They have no choice but to invest in R&D (and the same holds for other car makers who are developing EVs).

This would make them very profitable as you are aware. Tesla CHOOSES to invest in the huge growth potential, including charging infrastructure and battery capacity because it sees even bigger returns down the road.

If they had decided to stay in a small niche, chances are they would stagnate and die once that market is saturated or other players with deeper pockets move in. But now that they are leveraged up the hilt, it's too late anyway. I don't think they have a choice anymore. It's either rapid growth or bankruptcy.

 

[Brando]

Wayyyy easier for people to believe nefarious big oil conspiracy theories about why the EV1 was canned.

Hybrid Saturn is gone too. I just think it is bad GM management. Look to Bob Lutz successful new startups. Such as
VIA Motors and VLF Automotive. Starting an auto company isn't easy. Just ask Lutz.

GM latest success may well be to reduce EPA fuel efficiency requirements yet again. Perhaps they can change CARB/ZEV requirements again.

 

[Brando]

Let's see, 3 million cars, $1bn profit works out to $333 per car profit. Yikes, that is a slim reed. I wouldn't be crowing about that.

So, how did GM do a stock buyback for $16 billion ?
They should have hired Musk to build them a battery factory - a GigaFactory. - may two or three?

I have so many times been let down by GM. Corvair, straight 6 Firebird, mid-engine Corvette, EV1, Saturn, Saab - fine cars that had good potential and they dropped the ball. Just the tip of the let downs from GM (and Detroit in General - when did they start making 4 cyl.?)
Probably go bankrupt yet again. Or perhaps be taken over by the Chinese, or move the HQ to China.

</rant> > </venting>

 

[Brando]

If those things in the BMW video are large prismatic cells then they have several drawbacks. Here is an incomplete list:
(1) Their manufacturing yield will be lower than much smaller cylindrical cells because the amount of flawless surface area required in the separator and electrodes is 60 to 70 times greater, thus given the same conditions, they will have a much higher failure rate. Failures are (mostly) found during the cell testing before they'd be sold to BMW - that results in higher costs and there are a lot more materials in the failed cell to be recycled. This is sort of like the difficulty in making a 200 inch LCD screen with the same pixel density as a 15 inch screen, it's doable but inherently more difficult and expensive.
(2) Some small fraction of those defective cells won't fail until sometime after being put in service, in this case causing the entire battery to fail with resulting much higher warranty costs. Compared to 74 parallel small cells in a Tesla that are individually fused so a cell failure has little affect on the battery as a whole.
(3) The large cell has limits to the chemistry that can be used in them; it needs to be less flammable because the total energy in one (damaged cell) is so large it is nearly impossible (definitely impossible as built in the BMW pack) to protect that explosion from spreading to other cells because the individual "bomb" is so large. So they use a bit worst chemistry so it is less likely to explode in the first place. If new chemistry is discovered that is more flammable but much better performing, it won't be (safely) usable in prismatic cells, but is extremely likely to still be safe in small cylindrical cells.
(4) It has lower energy density because the structure required to hold the internal pressure is necessarily less efficient because of the larger scale.

It's possible that (1) and (2) could be mitigated if those "cells" are instead a collection of parallel pouch-cells with individual fuses and packaged in their pressure housing, but if that is the case we are back to "BMW has little experience building batteries" because they are making a battery of batteries instead of a battery of cells and most of the hard part of the problem is being done by others.

It is definitely more difficult to build a battery from many large cylindrical cells, but the additional costs are more than outweighed by the advantages; the main challenge is developing the technology to do it at low cost, high density and safely. Tesla developed and owns patents on this technology. It is a significant competitive advantage.

Great points - thanks for the info.

I believe Tesla has made ALL their patents sort of open source - at least they are not asking for patent fees, fair to say?
Elon doesn't seem to believe in patent. Elon say rate of innovation the best protection (moat is the current buzzword, right?)
The battery chemistry is a secret - and it is changing constantly - not just by Tesla, but by many battery companies.

I agree with many, the cylindrical cells are best, for now, for sure with current chemistries. Last earnings call, JB and Elon claim to have decreased cobalt more than any others. And cobalt the most expensive part for now.

Would be interesting IF pouch cells were modular enough and electronics would tell owner what needs replacing and the factory could just mail (sell?) you a replacement. I suspect the economics don't seem to work out, as no one seems to offer such an idea. Samsung may have hinted at this idea? But I don't think the product is offered yet. The idea of a modular, easy to replace cells.

Tesla battery packs are built to last 8-25 years. No maintenance no repair just recycle (repurpose?)

thanks again.

 

[seattlite2004]

So, how did GM do a stock buyback for $16 billion ?
They should have hired Musk to build them a battery factory - a GigaFactory. - may two or three?

I have so many times been let down by GM. Corvair, straight 6 Firebird, mid-engine Corvette, EV1, Saturn, Saab - fine cars that had good potential and they dropped the ball. Just the tip of the let downs from GM (and Detroit in General - when did they start making 4 cyl.?)
Probably go bankrupt yet again. Or perhaps be taken over by the Chinese, or move the HQ to China.

</rant> > </venting>

Or Panasonic...Gigafactory is a joint venture between Panasonic and Tesla....even Tesla did not go all in on the Gigafactory...they need/needed Panny's help.

 

[SageBrush]

Actually they did have to. Without their compliance cars, they wouldn't be able to meet CARB/EPA fleet requirements. Tesla doesn't make enough vehicles to sell credits to cover every other car maker's needs, so they essentially had no choice, other than giving up on profitably selling vehicles in the US.

Not to mention the 80B or so bailout

 

[dfwatt]

Just cancelled my subscription of about 20 years. This was the last straw as they have shown little interest in the coming EV revolution (which they would LOL at). I was figuring that the Model 3 would finally open some eyes there, but it is apparently not to be. They have done a few articles on EVs, but the editorial and tech slant is strongly in the legacy automaker / ICE camp.

I don't blame you Brian but let's wait until they get a proper full test of the performance all-wheel drive version. I suspect they'll be gushing about it.

 

[Brando]

2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Track Mode
"But all drama aside, the Model 3 Performance stands as a testament to just what Tesla's engineers are capable of. It's a hugely impressive machine, and after this taste, we're aching to give it a whirl at the track on the other side of old Fort Ord."

 

[dfwatt]

2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Track Mode
"But all drama aside, the Model 3 Performance stands as a testament to just what Tesla's engineers are capable of. It's a hugely impressive machine, and after this taste, we're aching to give it a whirl at the track on the other side of old Fort Ord."

Yep. It was the first review of the car by C&D that seemed better balanced. It would be really interesting to get the first instrumented tests, particularly if that included some comparative track time(s).

Anyone who has test driven this car, after stepping out of one of the competing sports sedans (Lexus IS 350, Merc C Series, BMW M3 or other 3 Series, Infiniti Q50) has to feel that this car is a game changing deal, even a revelation. I came to it from owning a much loved and heavily modified IS350 for more than 10 years, and right after test driving a BMW and a C63. It was not just an easy choice, it was an obvious one.

 

[dfwatt]

Or Panasonic...Gigafactory is a joint venture between Panasonic and Tesla....even Tesla did not go all in on the Gigafactory...they need/needed Panny's help.

And that's no poor reflection on Tesla. Just the opposite in my opinion, as these kinds of novel industrial partnerships are critical to moving the goalposts, and for the creation of a post-fossil fuel transportation infrastructure.

 

[Perry]

Car and Driver seemed less than blown-away: 2018 Tesla Model 3 Test | Review | Car and Driver

"Although it shows promising flashes of cleverness in its execution, the Model 3 in its current form feels just shy of complete. What’s more, at $50,000 and up, it also falls short of its mission to provide affordable and accessible electric motoring to a wide spectrum of the population. As much as Tesla has achieved here in creating a nicely integrated, capable, and relatively fun entry-luxury EV, we’re still left waiting—along with all those hopeful would-be owners—for the Model 3 to change the world."

I think it's a fair review. I agree with the negatives they bring up. They do say it drives well.

 

[Geblo]

Just follow the money. I expect them to be biased as they do not get any Tesla advertising money.

Just cancelled my subscription of about 20 years. This was the last straw as they have shown little interest in the coming EV revolution (which they would LOL at). I was figuring that the Model 3 would finally open some eyes there, but it is apparently not to be. They have done a few articles on EVs, but the editorial and tech slant is strongly in the legacy automaker / ICE camp.

 

[dfwatt]

Just follow the money. I expect them to be biased as they do not get any Tesla advertising money.

Here's a more positive review by Motor Trend. What is particularly interesting is the best in class (BIC) or at least equal to BIC braking, and the over .8 G acceleration. That, and the latest Car and Driver quickie review suggests that the fossil fuel ICE lobby won't stop the momentum of the Tesla M3P excellence.

 

[hacer]

I don't think that's the whole story. If they just wanted a compliance car, they could have had this much easier than developing the Bolt (by making a cheap conversion of one of their ICE models). The fact remains that they brought an affordable 200+ mile EV to the market at least two years before Tesla is able to do so. The Volt was also quite a technical achievement when it was introduced. I think they deserve more credit for their efforts than they are getting in some parts of the EV community.

Checking back in a few years like I said we should do. How is that "Bolt battery is competitive" working out for you?

Let's see: complete recall of all vehicles to have total replacement of all battery packs contingent on if they can ever figure out how to make/buy a reliable and safe battery pack for those cars. Stopped production plans for all their other EV vehicles until they figure this out.

Also, the sales figures (and range ) of the Bolt didn't work out at all like you predicted. That turned out to be a blessing considering the disaster the Bolt has become. Also completely proves the "compliance car" thesis. What is your response?

 

[dfwatt]

I don't think that's the whole story. If they just wanted a compliance car, they could have had this much easier than developing the Bolt (by making a cheap conversion of one of their ICE models). The fact remains that they brought an affordable 200+ mile EV to the market at least two years before Tesla is able to do so. The Volt was also quite a technical achievement when it was introduced. I think they deserve more credit for their efforts than they are getting in some parts of the EV community.

Yep and it doubles as a intra-garage heating system for your entire house. Unfortunately you can't control the heat and sometimes it burns down the whole house. And to boot after it burns down your house GM will expect you to still pay off your loan. And they will not replace the defective car that just incinerated your residence. So how does that all look to you?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Checking back in a few years like I said we should do. How is that "Bolt battery is competitive" working out for you?

Let's see: complete recall of all vehicles to have total replacement of all battery packs contingent on if they can ever figure out how to make/buy a reliable and safe battery pack for those cars. Stopped production plans for all their other EV vehicles until they figure this out.

Also, the sales figures (and range ) of the Bolt didn't work out at all like you predicted. That turned out to be a blessing considering the disaster the Bolt has become. Also completely proves the "compliance car" thesis. What is your response?

You are correct on the analysis of the pack/cell design, but I don't agree with the take that the Bolt is a compliance car. Even though its sales certainly weren't as good as some may have projected, it's way higher than compliance car levels. And you don't make the kind of battery and platform investments as GM did for compliance vehicles. You can see cars like the 500e, Focus Electric, Spark EV for examples for how a compliance car is done.

They may have bet incorrectly on LG Chem (they aren't alone, Hyundai got sucked in too), but that's a different point.

 

[jjrandorin]

Checking back in a few years like I said we should do. How is that "Bolt battery is competitive" working out for you?

Let's see: complete recall of all vehicles to have total replacement of all battery packs contingent on if they can ever figure out how to make/buy a reliable and safe battery pack for those cars. Stopped production plans for all their other EV vehicles until they figure this out.

Also, the sales figures (and range ) of the Bolt didn't work out at all like you predicted. That turned out to be a blessing considering the disaster the Bolt has become. Also completely proves the "compliance car" thesis. What is your response?

This is a THREE year old thread, and the person you are replying to hasnt been on TMC since 2019. If you want to discuss the bolt, that discussion goes in the electric car subform. If you want to discuss a CURRENT car and driver poor review, start a new thread on that please.