Car Crash Statistics and Realities

[richkae]

According to Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia there are 254,212,610 million passenger vehicles in the US.

From 2009 statistics: Motor Vehicle Accidents and Fatalities - The 2012 Statistical Abstract - U.S. Census Bureau

9,534,443 vehicles were involved in crashes.
2,642,487 involved an injury
40,840 involved a fatality

From here ( also 2009 ): Highway vehicle fires

190,500 vehicles were involved in a fire.


So about 1 in 27 vehicles is involved in a crash each year.
1 in 96 is involved in an injury crash.
1 in 1334 is involved in a vehicle fire.
1 in 6224 is involved in a fatality.

In a random population of 20000 vehicles you would expect:
750 crashes
208 injuries
15 fires
3 fatalities

 

[brianman]

From public information for the last year or so with Model S, aren't the numbers something like...

• < 20 crashes
• < 5 injuries
• 3 fires
• 0 fatalities

 

[evmile]

I think the issue is how likely is the battery to catch on fire if it is ruptured. It seems so far that it is very likely based on the small sample (100%).

1) How likely are you to rupture the battery in an accident?

2) How long do you have to get out of the car if it catches fire?

3) Can Tesla do something to the battery to keep it from catching fire when it is ruptured?

 

[richkae]

Even though there are about 20000 vehicles now - over the last 12 months the average population of Model S in the US is probably close to 10000. So adjust numbers accordingly.

There is no reason to believe that the number of crashes ( I prefer "crash" to "accident" even though some may be fender benders ) is less than any other random population.
Crashes are almost always human failure, not mechanical failure.
The number of injuries, fires and fatalities is very dependent on the vehicles involved.
Most certainly 100s of minor Model S crashes have gone unnoticed.

 

[DFibRL8R]

There is no reason to believe that the number of crashes ( I prefer "crash" to "accident" even though some may be fender benders ) is less than any other random population.
Crashes are almost always human failure, not mechanical failure.

Well, unless Model S drivers are different than the average driver in terms of certain risky behaviors (tailgating, distracted driving, DUI, reckless driving). The Tesla could have different crash avoidance characteristics as well.