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Carbon Wars: The New EPA Rules to Reduce Carbon Emissions at U.S. Power Plants

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There are places in the country that have electric rates and typical electric bills that are half that of what we have in California. If they have carbon intensive electric generation and it will require them doubling electric bills to meet the new regulations, then in my mind they're just "catching up" to where we are. We have Title 24 for energy efficiency standards and it's getting tighter all the time. Is it a pain when you are building or remodeling a house? Yes. Does it save people money in the end? Yes. Smart people will not see this as a "go kicking and screaming" issue, they will buckle down and see what they can do in their own home if and when their electric rates go up. I understand that not every location or even specific building is suitable for a residential solar installation, but it's the best money I've ever spent. Compared to what I would be spending on my electric bill, I'm saving money every month, from day 1 even including the principal and interest from borrowing the money for the installation. Of course, if you're paying 9 cents/kWh, you won't be saving money like I am because our rates pretty much already include the cost of reducing the carbon intensity of electric generation because we have portfolio standards.

This is the New Normal, people. Get used to it.

The new normal is not CA for everyone. That attitude probably doesn't help the discourse.

I can't quote Title 24 regs but there is a lot of crap in there that does not save money long term. In fact, given the average length of home ownership, most of the upgrades in efficiency won't actually save money for the person that did it. And honestly, many things won't payback over a lifetime.

Back to the topic. 30% is a joke since it comes from 2005 which is already history. Why would you draft rules based on ancient history? Because 30% sounds good? How about we already are 15% down from 2005. It is a joke. And top down regulation is really not the most efficient ways to do things.

The honest answer is that we are shooting for 20% in 15 years and you can do that by "portfolio" standards or just cheap led bulbs. But hey it is a start....

I paid 10 cents/kwh and solar still made sense but it did require significant subsidies to make it happen.

The best answer would be a revenue neutral carbon tax tied to a rule preventing the EPA from regulating carbon.
 
Yes. I'm willing to fight for practical solutions that make sense and won't bankrupt hundreds of thousands of families and will still accomplish the same end-game but with much less "battle".

If the remaining coal, oil and gas reserves were all burned, it would release somewhere around 2,800 gigatons of carbon dioxide. That's about 5 times higher than what we consider "safe" global warming at 2C. Those same fossil fuel reserves are worth about 27 trillion. And as long as there is no incentive for them to not extract it, and as long as fossil fuels remain "cheap" because they don't have to bear the externalized costs to the environment and human health, they will almost certainly be extracted. If not us, someone else. So, we basically have to figure out how to keep our hand out of the cookie jar when we know we are diabetic. This is 100% a game of will. It's those who are wanting to preserve the biodiversity of the planet for future generations, and those who want to preserve the status quo of more fossil fuels production and consumption. Believe me, if I saw the opportunity for negotiation or compromise, I would be the first to extend my hand. But I am not stupid. Climate Change cannot be solved without social action. And this is coming from someone (me) who absolutely hates the idea of being an activist. So who is going to win? Well, I don't know. But I know I will find out in my lifetime (I'm a young guy, btw).
 
This isn't pessimism but acknowledging reality... THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. We'll get most of our energy from unicorn farts before we get traction there. WE'RE OUT OF TIME.
I'm not advocating that we wait but that we at least try to get a part of this group to see that it's a problem rather than trying to avoid mentioning ghg at every turn. I`m sure a significant portion of the opposition have enough scientific literacy. At the mean time we try to push through policies despite political opposition.
 
but the very same people screaming "no coal" are also screaming "no fracking", "no burning fossil fuels", "no nukes", "wind farms kill birds", and "not in my backyard".

And who might these people be? I have met plenty of people who care about climate change that at least somewhat support nuclear energy, myself included. I have only heard "wind farms kill birds" argument come from Tea Party types. NIMBY is only applicable to those who oppose projects in their area and that can be fracking, wind farms, etc...

Painting with a broad brush makes a sloppy artist.
 
So who is going to win? Well, I don't know.

I applaud Obama but with 1,200 new coal power plants in the works, mainly in China and India, it's not hard to see who will win and it won't be the human species. In the bigger picture, these regulations will make little difference.

On parts of this planet, people are thrown in jail for dancing to the song "happy", others are condemned to death for believing in a different god, females are kept in beekeeper suits, school children are kidnapped en masse, and I could go on and on. You'd have to be naive to think science and reason will prevail. Obama knows this - he deals with Republicans daily which is why he couldn't go the legislation route. He said he has to do this for his/our children. That's why I drive a Tesla. We all have responsibility and we all leave a legacy regardless of the bigger picture.

We're barely out of the jungle as a species. It wasn't that long ago that we were huddled around fires for heat and part of the food chain, rather than at the top of it, so conquering nature is in our DNA. Well we sure have conquered it all right. We're circling the drain, but we've conquered the water!
 
Yes. I'm willing to fight for practical solutions that make sense and won't bankrupt hundreds of thousands of families and will still accomplish the same end-game but with much less "battle". My experience is that such approaches are indeed more successful than the scorched-earth "at any cost" policies that are espoused here by the academics.

My best to you all in your quest.
Not sure if you are talking about this plan, but if so, this one won't bankrupt families, nor is it a scorched earth policy. It simply sets GHG goals for the power sector for each state and is open ended about how to achieve it. They can either take a "rate-based" approach (reduce GHG/MWh by a certain percentage, which will require adjusting/changing the power mix and/or increasing plant efficiency) or a "mass-based" approach (reduce total GHG output from power sector by a certain percentage, which opens up the option using the approach of reducing power demand on the consumer side).

The scenario you set up where energy bills go up drastically overnight is unlikely to happen. The first group the public blames and gets angry at when electricity prices go up are the power companies. If they purposefully try to play with rates (or other tactics like blackouts) in order to get political support against these measures, there's a high chance it will backfire on them. Plus the EPA isn't stupid, they will keep economic impact and feasibility in mind when drafting the specific targets and rules (you can see the compromises made in the CAFE targets for cars/trucks for example).

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I applaud Obama but with 1,200 new coal power plants in the works, mainly in China and India, it's not hard to see who will win and it won't be the human species. In the bigger picture, these regulations will make little difference.
China will still be depending on coal in the near term, but it's not a hopeless cause as they are focusing heavily on natural gas and nuclear development. This measure at least gives the US some support when arguing for GHG reductions in China and India. If the US itself does nothing to control power plant GHG emissions, how can we convincingly say that China and India must do so?
 
I applaud Obama but with 1,200 new coal power plants in the works, mainly in China and India, it's not hard to see who will win and it won't be the human species. In the bigger picture, these regulations will make little difference.

One of the primary goals to these emission reductions is increased leverage over China and India. If we're doing nothing are they more or less likely to reduce their own emissions?
 
I applaud Obama but with 1,200 new coal power plants in the works, mainly in China and India, it's not hard to see who will win and it won't be the human species. In the bigger picture, these regulations will make little difference.

On parts of this planet, people are thrown in jail for dancing to the song "happy", others are condemned to death for believing in a different god, females are kept in beekeeper suits, school children are kidnapped en masse, and I could go on and on. You'd have to be naive to think science and reason will prevail. Obama knows this - he deals with Republicans daily which is why he couldn't go the legislation route. He said he has to do this for his/our children. That's why I drive a Tesla. We all have responsibility and we all leave a legacy regardless of the bigger picture.

We're barely out of the jungle as a species. It wasn't that long ago that we were huddled around fires for heat and part of the food chain, rather than at the top of it, so conquering nature is in our DNA. Well we sure have conquered it all right. We're circling the drain, but we've conquered the water!

You make really good points, but let me try to make one of my own that I hope you will entertain. Even if there is a sliver of a chance that humanity might become a sustainable, intelligent, rational species... put aside all the fear, ignorance and superstition... embrace reason and science... isn't it worth doing absolutely everything you can to make that happen? I think it is. Think of the future that would be possible if virtually every person on Earth had a college level education (something becoming more feasible as the internet grows). Think of what it'd be like if humanity became so good at managing natural resources that things like hunger and poverty became things of the past. Think of what it would be like if we mastered the enormous energy of our host star, enabling technology that we cannot yet fathom. Think of what it would be like if we could travel to other planets at will.

Even if there was a small chance of that being possible, is that worth getting up in the morning invigorated to do everything possible to achieve it? I am not being utopian. Human societies will always have problems. But you cannot deny that their was a massive improvement in the past 400 years of scientific enlightenment compared to the previous 6,000 years of nonstop war and famine. I am talking about a transformation that is similar to that scale, and what is required is to expand the bubble of scientific knowledge from outside the scientific community to the general public. If we can defeat ignorance, we can win our future.
 
One of the primary goals to these emission reductions is increased leverage over China and India. If we're doing nothing are they more or less likely to reduce their own emissions?

I never said do nothing. I'd prefer we do more. But these regulations will have little effect when it comes to leverage over China and India. The West is in the position it is because of its past and present insatiable combustion of power, primarily from fossil fuels. Can we really tell China and India not to follow our path? Or, we have reduced it by 30% or whatever and you must too?

You make really good points, but let me try to make one of my own ...

Your points are well taken and I agree with you. Despite how I may sound, I am not a fatalist. In fact, I am an optimist. But I am also a realist. I sure hope I am proven wrong and science and reason prevail but even without a sliver of hope I will reduce my use of carbon and do what is right, regardless of the bigger picture. We should all do what is right because it is right -- and for no other reason.
 
Spend a month shadowing an average family. Ask them how much they care about climate change, and ask them where that compares relative to putting food on the table for their families. Ask them if they would pay double their current electric bill per month if it would increase the chances of combating climate change by an unspecified amount. See what answer you get.

Unfortunately, I am inclined to agree with this. Many (though by no means all) people are focused on what they see directly front of them. They don't account for the enormous costs that are coming down the pike, for which they and their children and grandchildren will pay, one way or another - more droughts, floods, crop failures, refugees, political instability, forest fires, permanently rising sea levels, massive extinctions. Think about just one of these things - what it would mean to live in a world - the world we are leaving our children - where sea levels, rather than being more or less constant like they have been over the last 10,000 years, rise rapidly and inexorably over the course of centuries as Greenland and Antarctica melt, with absolutely no way of stopping it. With constantly changing coastlines, how could you have a port, with all of its required and extremely expensive infrastructure?

Better education is part of the answer. But it's unlikely to be sufficient.

So how can we get people on board for taking action now? From a political perspective, we absolutely need to do two things. One is to give people something direct and tangible upfront to counter the immediate costs they will incur. The second is to give people a sense of control over what they pay - give them the ability to reduce their costs, and, by making good choices, even turn a profit.

The cleanest way to do this (I think) is to tax carbon at the source and then immediately turn around and hand over ALL the proceeds to the people pro-rata.

The rebate part is really important. People will like getting a check in the mail every month. By design, their costs will go up as well. But the nice thing about this system is that, a) on average the costs and proceeds balance out exactly; and, very importantly, b) people will have some control over what their costs are - they will be able to make decisions about their energy use and in a way decide how much they are going to pay. If people are "average" in their carbon emissions, they will pay nothing - proceeds will balance extra costs. If people choose to emit less than average, by for example insulating their home better, buying better appliances and more efficient cars, installing solar, buying less junk, etc, they will make a profit - their rebate checks will be larger than their costs. And finally people who decide that their boat or large house or vacations in far flung places are important to them (I'm not judging here; for example I have a large, old and and not terribly energy efficient house myself), can continue to do this, although they'll have to pay more, to cover the costs of their emissions.

I expect that a scheme like the one above would rapidly and relatively painlessly bring down carbon emissions. It would also do so in the most economically efficient way.

(Exports would need to be given a carbon credit and imports from countries without a carbon fee would need to be assigned a tariff to equalize the playing field. This is doable).
 
It's ALREADY working :smile:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/06/03/3444105/china-carbon-cap-2/


One of my pet peeves about our society is that we've contracted a form of "pathological democracy". We should be free to make our own choices but we MUST understand when we're in an area that is outside our level of knowledge. A pilot isn't going to take a vote in the cabin at to what altitude to lower the landing gear or when to extend the flaps... most passengers lack that training and rightly or wrongly must blindly trust the pilots competence to get them to their destination safely.

As a society we decide what we want; Seems that most people have voted for a stable climate, clean air and cheap energy. Most people don't have a sufficient knowledge base to find an effective compromise to those goals. We decided WHAT but not HOW; If you have cancer and WANT to live you need to let the oncologists decide HOW to cure you. We can't all be an expert on everything. A climatologist isn't going to FULLY understand the importance of vaccines and an immunologist isn't going to FULLY understand the dire straights our addiction to fossil fuels has put us in. By FULLY I mean they're not the ones doing research... they must trust the research that others do. We're in agreement on the destination... now, unless you're the pilot sit-down, shut up and let the pilot do his job (And try to convince the nut-job you're sitting next to trust the "pilot"). In the real world there's thousands of "pilots" in any given field and more often than not there's a broad consensus on what action is needed. That's the message "Joe six-pack" and Jenny Mccarthy fans need.
 
Thank you for illustrating why we NEED public policy to take action... the "average family" doesn't care about costs in 20 years. But someone needs to have the courage to act or in 20 years we're screwed. It's easy to point out flaws in the current solution... FAR FAR more challenging to come up with a better one... what's yours?

Funnily enough, I think you just agreed with the point FlasherZ has been trying to make all along! It's the general public's gullibility or refusal to think long term that's the problem.
 
Funnily enough, I think you just agreed with the point FlasherZ has been trying to make all along! It's the general public's gullibility or refusal to think long term that's the problem.

Hmmm... FlasherZ has danced around so much it's hard to tell exactly where he stands... As best I can tell his position is summarized by this;

"Maybe we should do something... there may or may not be a problem with CO2... but we shouldn't force anyone to pay more than they want too... and people need to know more about the problem that may or may not exist..."

My position is summarized by this;
"There IS a problem with putting 30B tons/year of CO2 in the air. We MUST take MEANINGFUL action NOW to reduce it. Some people will get hurt financially (as a society we can and should help them) and some people will NEVER understand or accept the problem.... TOUGH!"

If you look at the way we mobilized our country in WWII we are MORE than capable of shifting our source of energy quickly. The "Free Market" may need a kick in the a$$ and a shove but if that's what it takes that's what it takes. When the EPA decided to regulate SO2 emissions industry claimed it would cost $1500/ton; the EPA estimated $700/ton; the cost ended up being $200/ton.

http://www.epa.gov/capandtrade/documents/ctresults.pdf

With the cost of renewables falling faster than the DOW in 2009 the cost of reducing our CO2 emissions is probably going to be far lower than anyone expects...

I agree that many in the middle class CAN'T afford this... BUT as a society we have MORE than sufficient resources and EVERYONE will benefit in the end. If you have the resources to power your life with the sun and you're not powering your life with the sun there is something VERY wrong with your intelligence or ethics.
 
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Think of the future that would be possible if virtually every person on Earth had a college level education (something becoming more feasible as the internet grows).

Most of the climate change deniers in the House and Senate, the Koch brothers, etc., etc, have a college-level education (and often professional degrees) but that doesn't seem to make a dime's worth of difference. They have degrees but appear to have missed the education part, particulary that which confers wisdom and prudent judgment.
 
Most of the climate change deniers in the House and Senate, the Koch brothers, etc., etc, have a college-level education (and often professional degrees) but that doesn't seem to make a dime's worth of difference. They have degrees but appear to have missed the education part, particulary that which confers wisdom and prudent judgment.

As someone who has done 12 years of post-secondary education, I am a prime example of the quote.."never confuse education with wisdom" .:wink:
 
Most of the climate change deniers in the House and Senate, the Koch brothers, etc., etc, have a college-level education (and often professional degrees) but that doesn't seem to make a dime's worth of difference. They have degrees but appear to have missed the education part, particulary that which confers wisdom and prudent judgment.

I think they know what they are doing. It's simply that doing anything goes against their financial interests and that is more important to them.
 
For those that think like that pic way back upthread that "coal is dead" because of the new rules, I submit the following:

Power plant becomes a model for cleaner operation - Yahoo News

The story is about a coal plant that spewed more pollution than the entire state of New York - and after a refit, it'll be one of the cleanest plants in the world - all without increasing electric rates.

I'm old enough to remember when this country was going to be bankrupted by everything from putting seat belts into cars to cleaning up the air and water. But we did it and we're still here.
 
For those that think like that pic way back upthread that "coal is dead" because of the new rules, I submit the following:

Power plant becomes a model for cleaner operation - Yahoo News

The story is about a coal plant that spewed more pollution than the entire state of New York - and after a refit, it'll be one of the cleanest plants in the world - all without increasing electric rates.

I'm old enough to remember when this country was going to be bankrupted by everything from putting seat belts into cars to cleaning up the air and water. But we did it and we're still here.

Building a Coal plant that only emits CO2 and H2O is one thing... until they build one that only emits H2O AND generates power for <$0.04/kWh (Something that is probably impossible) Coal IS dead.