Catalysts, Due Diligence, and Market Timing

[kenliles]

I would say this is "the" car award in Europe. There are many others by individual magazines and such, but this is the only one that really matters.

First of all it has a 50 year history - in fact it will turn 50 in 2014, so it may be a good occasion to make a statement with a revolutionary winner
Second it representes almost all EU countries with their most respected (mainly) car magazines and their jurnos voting.

Excellent synopsis, thanks for that mrdouble. This would indeed be a fantastic catalyst for TSLA then. I, for one, was not aware of the 50 year historical significance for the award. Thanks again. Can't wait for the result!

 

[Norse]

The Jury for the Car of the Year 2014 consists of 58 members, representing 22 European countries. National representation on the Jury is related to the size of the country's car market and its importance in car manufacturing. France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain each have six members; other countries, proportionally fewer.

It would obviously be better if they were all Norwegian. The model S has not hit the mass market in most of these countries

 

[Jack6591]

I'm a little behind the power-curve on this.

Tesla gets $34.7 million tax break to boost production - Fossils Energy and Clean Tech

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I'm a little behind the power-curve on this.

Tesla gets $34.7 million tax break to boost production - Fossils Energy and Clean Tech

When precisely did this hit the newswires yesterday? After hour or during trading. This would have a two fold impact I think. Firstly the saved taxes are not peanuts, we're talking of $35M and secondly this looks like Tesla buying the equipment to finance the second assembly line, possibly for Model X. Adding serious amount of capacity that seems to be confirmed is ongoing now (at least reading the article I understand that the number is precise because this is the cost of extra manufacturing equipment that Tesla is already buying or bought). The speculations about opening a second line have been there, but no specific timeframes.

If this didn't hit the news yesterday in trading hours, then this might be a positive tick for today too.

 

[anon]

If this didn't hit the news yesterday in trading hours, then this might be a positive tick for today too.

This site says that the story was released at 2:24pm yesterday:
http://www.wopular.com/tesla-gets-347-million-tax-break-boost-production

I think that the time is PST, but I am not certain.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The speculations about opening a second line have been there, but no specific timeframes.
.

I do not think that this equipment purchase is for second line, it is more likely for expanding capacity of the existing line, as it's "as designed" capacity is about 40,000 cars/year. Elon further indicated that additional cap.ex. could bring production to about 50,500 cars/year. The numbers mentioned in the article (21,500 plus additional 35,000) indicate increase in total capacity to 56,000 - to little to account for two lines. The number, however, is significant, because it improves on previously known approximate max production number for one assembly line.

See my previous post on the sources for 40,000 and 50,000 cars/year production numbers:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...d-expectations?p=519467&viewfull=1#post519467

 

[Bgarret]

I do not think that this equipment purchase is for second line, it is more likely for expanding capacity of the existing line, as it's "as designed" capacity is about 40,000 cars/year. Elon further indicated that additional cap.ex. could bring production to about 50,500 cars/year. The numbers mentioned in the article (21,500 plus additional 35,000) indicate increase in total capacity to 56,000 - to little to account for two lines. The number, however, is significant, because it improves on previously known approximate max production number for one assembly line.

I read the article a little differently....the capacity for the current line is about 40,000 cars and Tesla produced 21,500 cars on it this year. The new equipment would increase production capability by 35,000 cars/yr for a total future capacity of 75,000 - 80,000, or a good estimate of the projected Model S + X demand in 2015/2016.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I read the article a little differently....the capacity for the current line is about 40,000 cars and Tesla produced 21,500 cars on it this year. The new equipment would increase production capability by 35,000 cars/yr for a total future capacity of 75,000 - 80,000, or a good estimate of the projected Model S + X demand in 2015/2016.

Well, the 40,000 cars/year production was NOT mentioned in the article, so technically speaking you could not read the article the way you described...:smile:

The quote from the article:
Tesla expects to build 21,500 sedans this year. The new equipment would help expand annual production by 35,000 cars.

 

[serkol]

New Tesla Model X in Tesla Hangar at Hawthorne Airport

https://twitter.com/TeslaNY/status/413276099779776512/photo/1

 

[Cattledog]

Looks short compared to the one I've seen in person, however the integrated handles for front and falcon doors is a design signature of the X. Might be the same prototype they have been carting around. Is @TeslaNY an official Tesla Twitter feed?

New Tesla Model X in Tesla Hangar at Hawthorne Airport

https://twitter.com/TeslaNY/status/413276099779776512/photo/1

 

[wycolo]

> What do you mean cheesy? And don't you know what Europe is? [Norse]

Yeah, EU being a subset of 'Europe'. Cheesy since most awards are such; what makes this one any different?

Turns out this AWARD is sponsored by 7 auto magazines. Ok, what have they done lately: 2012 winner = Opel Ampera; 11 = Leaf; 10 = VW Polo. Boy, this should get the masses running down to the dealerships. Looks to me like a Consumer Reports focus: practicality, value, homogenization. If they choose to hop on the Tesla bandwagon, *that* in itself would be the news.
--

 

[serkol]

Looks short compared to the one I've seen in person

The way something looks in a photo depends on many things, like the lens and its settings, the distance from the lens to the subject, and more. Look at pics on real estate web sites - rooms and backyards look huge, because they use wide angle lenses. Telephoto lenses make things look smaller and flatter. In this particular picture the car may be much longer than it seems.

Is @TeslaNY an official Tesla Twitter feed?

Looks like a Tesla fan.

 

[Norse]

> What do you mean cheesy? And don't you know what Europe is? [Norse]

Yeah, EU being a subset of 'Europe'. Cheesy since most awards are such; what makes this one any different?

Turns out this AWARD is sponsored by 7 auto magazines. Ok, what have they done lately: 2012 winner = Opel Ampera; 11 = Leaf; 10 = VW Polo. Boy, this should get the masses running down to the dealerships. Looks to me like a Consumer Reports focus: practicality, value, homogenization. If they choose to hop on the Tesla bandwagon, *that* in itself would be the news.
--

That's your opinion. Still I do not get why you mix EU into this. This one is for Europe, not EU.

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla Charging System Garage Fire - Business Insider

DAMMIT

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Tesla Charging System Garage Fire - Business Insider

DAMMIT

The fire started on the wall. It has nothing to do with the Model S.

 

[Norse]

The fire started on the wall. It has nothing to do with the Model S.

Tell that to the media

I was actually thinking about this yesterday, when will the first one of these come. With all the Electric cars and chargers, this will happen from time to time. But it will also happen to every other thing you charge With electricity.

 

[Jack6591]

The fire started on the wall. It has nothing to do with the Model S.

I'm an electrician. Probably shoddy workmanship by the guy who installed the charger.

 

[Cameron]

Just stumbled across this article.. http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-banks-dan-galves-on-tesla-probe-2013-11#ixzz2nwxSlXWj and noticed..

"Deutsche Bank's Dan Galves believes the NHTSA's findings which should come in 60 days or less, will most likely be "benign."

If my math is correct, those 60 days are over on January 18th 2014, which is the same deadline the NHTSA had requested info from Tesla. That leads me to believe we will hear from the NHTSA by then which would be hugely beneficial for the stock! Any other thoughts on this?

 

[Jack6591]

Just stumbled across this article.. http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-banks-dan-galves-on-tesla-probe-2013-11#ixzz2nwxSlXWj and noticed..

"Deutsche Bank's Dan Galves believes the NHTSA's findings which should come in 60 days or less, will most likely be "benign."

If my math is correct, those 60 days are over on January 18th 2014, which is the same deadline the NHTSA had requested info from Tesla. That leads me to believe we will hear from the NHTSA by then which would be hugely beneficial for the stock! Any other thoughts on this?

Im sitting on Januay 18 Calls. This would be great, however most of their responses take a minimum of 4 months. I hope he's right and I'm wrong.

 

[Jack6591]

NHTSA Reaffirms Model S 5-Star Safety Rating In All Categories For Model Year 2014 | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

NHTSA REAFFIRMS MODEL S 5-STAR SAFETY RATING IN ALL CATEGORIES FOR MODEL YEAR 2014

Market timing should be very interesting. While I believe this announcement will be a strong positive catalyst, tomorrow will be an abbreviated trading day. It will interesting to see how tsla trades on Christmas Eve.