Yes, that is what I am saying, at least not a significant difference. If both have 77.8kWh capacity batteries (this is not possible since all 2018 batteries have degraded), and you are running latest software on both, and you are not making use of the heat pump to improve efficiency of cabin heating, then you'll get very close to the same range. And efficiency will be nearly identical. It's true that we don't know of tiny tweaks on the 2020 vs. the 2018 which improved actual efficiency - but note that the software efficiency updates applied to all vehicles including 2018. I haven’t heard of any notable hardware differences between 2018 and 2020, and that is the one place where my case is weak (and there is no real way to know whether there’s some fundamental difference between 2018 and 2020 efficiency). You can disagree with me, but the EPA submissions are what they are. It's true that 2018 actual EPA numbers were way worse (7% more energy use per mile highway - not 14%). For that, again, my contention is that the software updates are what closed that gap, not any hardware change, and the 2018s largely realized all of that improvement. Circumstantial evidence (not definitive as I say above) is that the 2020 had essentially identical efficiency to the 2021 in the testing (particularly the (poorly emulating) highway testing, HWFET, which is what matters for range). This tells the tale (this is all directly from Tesla, or directly calculated from their numbers): Of course, there HAVE been many hardware changes in the interim, and undoubtedly SOME have had some small impact on efficiency. But the overall picture that I see suggests that they have a very small impact. Again: if you expect 14% improvement in efficiency, based on the EPA range change, you're definitely going to be disappointed (caveats outlined above - there are many circumstances where you will indeed get much better efficiency)
TL;DR 1) 2018 Model 3 was ~7% less efficient than 2021 Model 3, on standard highway test, when tested in 2018. 2) 2018 Model 3 has received multiple efficiency updates in the meantime. 3) So 2018 Model 3 is probably within a couple % of 2021 Model 3 in raw efficiency, neglecting situations where the heat pump is used. 4) The nominal starting battery capacities are the same, so that means the range will be within a couple %. Personally, if I were in the market for a new Model 3 to increase my range, I'd wait for a higher capacity battery (currently only on Performance) before upgrading. I think there's a decent chance such an option will be available in the next 12 months (probably slightly higher cost).
[QUOTE="AlanSubie4Life, post: 5352494, member: 88614" This tells the tale (this is all directly from Tesla, or directly calculated from their numbers): View attachment 639047 [/QUOTE] I don't know about you but just choosing the UDDS Efficiency column it's about 9% more efficient between the 2019 and 2021 18" AWD models. That's not what I consider insignificant, but of course everyone's definition varies widely.
1) UDDS is urban cycle. 2) The 2019 number was done in 2018 (it's in fact identical to the 2018, not listed). There have been multiple software updates since then that Tesla claims have improved efficiency and applied retroactively. How much? That's the one unknown here. Again, the hardware in the Performance 2020 18" is essentially identical to AWD 2018 (to the extent we don't know exactly what the differences are!), so looking at the difference between 2020 Performance is likely representative, to get a sense for the remaining gap to 2021. Claim (not known, but I have nothing suggesting otherwise): 2018 AWD = 2019 AWD (980) ~= 2020 Performance 18" (Stealth) on a hardware basis. Known: 2020 Performance basically equivalent to 2021 AWD results, particularly on the highway test. Remember, there's a 14% difference in EPA range. About half of that (~6%) is due to a different multiplier being used in 2021 vs. prior years, to reflect better cold and very hot weather results. That's known (see the table). It won't reflect "reality" when those conditions do not apply (a caveat I have mentioned multiple times above). My claim is most of the remaining 7% is due to software improvements that now apply to 2018 & 2019 vehicles. As far as I know there's no way to PROVE this. Someone can dig up how much Tesla said the improvements were, but I remember "a few %" being bounced around on each software update. It kind of adds up... This leaves a difference of a couple %, is my guess. Kind of like the difference you see between 2020 Performance Stealth and 2021 AWD in the table... Tough to justify the upgrade unless you fall in one of the categories who would benefit. For example, I'm in coastal San Diego, where it is rarely particularly hot or cold, so it would basically be useless (to me). Until they increase capacity.
Wholly agreed -- I don't think it's worth selling and re-purchasing for the sake of range, at all. I do think the newer Model 3's have a measurable extended range vis-a-vie a 2018/2019 model, but I agree completely -- not enough to make a re-purchase financially feasible. Ignoring most of the math behind it (which you do a phenomenal job at, and always have ...) Very simply -- my Model 3 ('19 AWD) is rated at 310 miles. Doesn't even matter what the "real world" range is, to be frank. Once I'm over about 200 miles on a single trip, it means I'm traveling a road trip distance. So there's no scenario I see where the difference between 200 and 225 miles means I won't need a charge. Or even to 275. Probably even 300. In other words ... 99% of time: Trip < 200 miles. If not, I'm on a road trip and thus will need a charge anyway. Granted, that's a function of "my" driving, but in the 2 years I've had my Model 3, range has been way, way, way less of a concern than I ever imagined. It also helps that my home state is only 166 miles north to south, and 70 miles at its widest.
No, but we don’t need one. I’ve got NYC on one side and Pennsyltucky on the other. Plenty of incentive to stay here.