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Cathie Wood, in CNBC interview, thinks 1.1m units possible by 2020

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by stealthology, Feb 19, 2015.

  1. stealthology

    stealthology Member

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  2. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Elon said before that they'll add more factories overseas
     
  3. the dude

    the dude Member

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    yeah, she is saying if the model 3 is as popular as the model S then they could sell one million cars a year in 2020

    I think she might be right if battery production was not a problem

    people will want electric cars because electric cars are better
     
  4. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    I think her point was more about demand than supply. She acknowledged that a single Gigafactory would be not provide adequate supply. In deed, two gigafactories would not be enough for 1.1M cars.

    I think she substantially understated the technology lead in batteries Tesla enjoys. She say about 3 year lead, but consideration of density and the decade it takes to double density, Tesla is at least 8 years ahead. Of course, competitors could catch up more quickly if they would simply use Tesla's approach and patents.

    Altogether I liked the positive interview.
     
  5. strangethingintheland

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    As I hear it, she is not suggesting that they will reach those levels in 2020. Rather, she is making a point about demand, to try to put the current model S sales in perspective. Model S is outselling the BMW 7 series in the US by a factor of 1.7. IF (just for the sake of discussion), Tesla was able to match that for the 3 and 5 series, then the result would be 1.1 million units. I think her only point is to suggest that others are not grasping the potential for Tesla's future marketshare.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Toyota-GM always stated Fremont capacity at 500k cars.

    Actual peak production was in 2006 at 428,632 units.

    I have heard JB and others express optimism they can beat 500k substantially without the shackles of UAW work rules.

    Regarding battery supply, after GF at full capacity they will still buy Japanese made Panasonic batteries.

    And Tesla is in talks with Samsung about becoming secondary supplier.

    Don't wan't a natural disaster like a tsunami to wipe out Tesla production for months.
     
  7. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    If Tesla hits 500k cars in 2020 and keeps growing at 50% per year, then 1.1M comes in 2022.
     
  8. the dude

    the dude Member

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    #8 the dude, Feb 20, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2015
    but do Tesla really have a 3 year lead if they allow others to use their patents and copy the pack design
     
  9. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    Yea... Because they still have trade secrets that competitors will only find when taking apart released products. Patents released were only ones till that specific date. Everything else is in house.
     
  10. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Yes, they do. You have to ask yourself why are competitors going to market with battery densities that are ten years behind. Why would they do that if Tesla is giving them a free pass to catch up technologically? I honestly do not know why. They lag behind not for lack of technology, but for lack of will. Because they lack the will, they also fail to make the investments that would enable explosive growth in EVs.

    How long will it take the auto industry, excluding Tesla, to roll out 9 times as much battery capacity as Tesla? I ask that because that is what it would take to keep Tesla from gaining more than 10% marketshare. As of last year, P/H/EV battery makers supplied the industry with about 7.1 GWh. Tesla got about 2.7GWh. If it keeps growing at 50% per year for 10 years, that puts it at selling 155.7 GWh. So the rest of the industry will need 1,401.3 GWh to confine Tesla, so it needs to grow from 4.4 GWh last year by 78% annually for ten years. I don't see any competitor with the will and stamina to grow that fast for ten years, much less the industry as a whole. Even if they leap ahead technologically to a battery with 80% more density, that only buys them one year of growth needed in this race. I think it is safe to say that it will take more than ten years for the auto industry to begin to defend its marketshare against Tesla.
     
  11. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    #11 kenliles, Feb 20, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2015
    Disagree with this part. I think they are currently and have been defending it, that is the issue in and of itself. There is nothing to defend.
    Instead, I believe the auto industry is already dead. It's transforming in continuum to a new paradigm -continuity of personal environment between locations at no more cost than being at home or work. Environment, control, and propulsion all electrically based. The paradigm shift eschews the current companies steeped in dead technologies, design and expertise. It's much too late and my prediction is the Tesla's, Apple's, Google's and similarly equipped and missioned will consume and integrate what was once an 'automotive industry' - transformed to a personal environment of movement between locations. JMHO
     
  12. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    Good point. At that growth rate, who cares about plus or minus one or two years? I know the short-term-thinking speculators do, but keeping an eye on the bigger picture, there is not that much significance to the issue.

    It is interesting to note how even six months ago, people (even Panasonic) were incredulous that Tesla would ever get near the scale of demand to justify the gigafactory. Now it is "baked in" to consensus thinking. Disruption is all about imagination-- out imagining the legacy competition. Execution is hard, true, but for those without imagination and conviction, the future does not exist.

    - - - Updated - - -

    BTW, Cathy Wood is one of the clearest and most unshakeable voices I have heard on the bull side of TSLA institutional investing. Even Andrea James and Adam Jonas would not have been so effective in that shark tank. Impressive!
     
  13. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    This is quotable, spot on. It reminds me of the verse, "Without vision, a people perish."
     
  14. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    I'm not sure we are really disagreeing here. It's funny how the media spins any development of EVs as some sort of threat to Tesla. Any "Tesla Killer" would kill a 100 ICE sales before it touches a single Tesla. If the auto industry does not step up soon, they leave the door wide open to Apple, Google, or any number of new entrants. The battery makers themselves may need to develop their own cars just to sell their batteries. Samsung Car, anyone? Consider the fact that even when Tesla has supplied battery packs to other automaker, the end products have not been nearly as well sold or advanced as the Model S. I do not think Tesla could be anywhere as successful only being a supplier to other carmakers. If you really want to sell the best batteries, you've got to package them in a compelling consumer product. If Detroit won't do this, then the battery makers may just need to take matters into their own hands.
     

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