Charity bet #1: When will existing FSD buyers get FSD?

[Cosmacelf]

In the TMC SpaceX forum we started some charity bets to predict when things will occur (Like first Starship orbital flight). The idea is that if you win, you get to name a charity, and all losers pinky swear they will donate $50 to that charity (to be chosen at time of winning).

So I though I’d start one here for the obvious bet: when will existing FSD customers be able to start using FSD. Not as part of some limited participation list, or greater than 95 score list (which should be “imminent”), but available to anyone who has purchased FSD.

Rules for this bet:

• Each participant chooses a single year/month combo when the event will occur
• One contestant per month/year (get your votes in early!)
• The winner is the one that picks the month/year (or no winner if the event occurs in a month/year with no contestant)
• No Price is Right or nearest participant. Somebody gets the month/year right or not
• In the no-winner scenario then we just start up another charity bet
• If your month has gone by and you didn't win, you can choose a new month (but now you have to donate $100 if you lose).

Contestants:

Cosmacelf: March 2023
KArnold: May 2023

 

[Daniel in SD]

This is such a tricky question.
First, you need to define FSD. I assume you mean FSD Beta? What if the production release is a subset of FSD Beta?
I assume available means that the required camera upgrade has been completed for all existing FSD customers?
What if FSD is still not available for MCU1 and Tesla does not offer a free upgrade?

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is such a tricky question.

It's for fun, don't think so hard about it

First, you need to define FSD. I assume you mean FSD Beta? What if the production release is a subset of FSD Beta?

Anything counts, as long as all FSD customers (that have the right hardware) are given access to it. And since Tesla rolls out releases slowly, the date that counts is the first date that someone actually receives the FSD (beta) meant for all customers.

I assume available means that the required camera upgrade has been completed for all existing FSD customers?

For this bet, it'll count if all customers that have the right hardware are given access to it.

What if FSD is still not available for MCU1 and Tesla does not offer a free upgrade?

Sucks for them. That won't matter for this bet.

 

[Tam]

...What if the production release is a subset of FSD Beta?...

I think there will always be an Early Access Program or "Beta" but for the thread's purpose: It's "Navigation on Autopilot on city streets" to anyone who buys/rents FSD and has the hardware to download it without jumping through hoops of Safety Score...

Since Tesla promised MCU1/AP2.0 cameras have the FSD capability in 2016, it's up to Tesla to make that happen but I won't hold my breath.

 

[KArnold]

Great idea, thank you.

Cosmacelf: March 2023

And exactly my guess before I got to the bottom.

So I'll grab May 2023

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow, so much discussion here about FSD and no one wants to make a friendly bet on when it'll be available?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

It's for fun, don't think so hard about it

But, I'm an Engineer.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Wow, so much discussion here about FSD and no one wants to make a friendly bet on when it'll be available?

It needs to have a date limit to enable FSD Beta doubters to pledge. Something like Post 2023.

FSD Beta might never be a General release on HW3. Charities shouldn't wait forever to get their money from the FSD frown types.

There needs to be an agreement that a user vote will occur when FSD Beta has its general release to decide if what's actually released matches the qualifications of what a general release should be. That it should be fairly close in capabilities to the FSD Beta limited release where there isn't crazy limits. I'm okay with unprotected lefts being thrown out, but not things like 4 way stops. FSD Beta General release has to actually do stuff. It can still be garbage like NoA is.

 

[JHCCAZ]

But, I'm an Engineer.

That's right! Thinking hard about it is the fun!

 

[Cosmacelf]

It needs to have a date limit to enable FSD Beta doubters to pledge. Something like Post 2023.

FSD Beta might never be a General release on HW3. Charities shouldn't wait forever to get their money from the FSD frown types.

There needs to be an agreement that a user vote will occur when FSD Beta has its general release to decide if what's actually released matches the qualifications of what a general release should be. That it should be fairly close in capabilities to the FSD Beta limited release where there isn't crazy limits. I'm okay with unprotected lefts being thrown out, but not things like 4 way stops. FSD Beta General release has to actually do stuff. It can still be garbage like NoA is.

Well, you can do a charity bet on your criteria if you want. The point of this thread is to bet when existing FSD customers can have access to FSD, beta or otherwise.

If you don't want to play, that's fine.

 

[Big Dog]

"end of year"

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

If you don't want to play, that's fine.

You're not allowing us to play. :-(

 

[Cosmacelf]

You're not allowing us to play. :-(

What is wrong with people here? Pick a month/year to play. If you want different rules, set up your own charity bet.

 

[rameshratan]

What is wrong with people here? Pick a month/year to play. If you want different rules, set up your own charity bet.

I just got the software update yesterday and got the full FSD access with local streets The score is gone. I was at 98%.

 

[Daniel in SD]

What is wrong with people here? Pick a month/year to play. If you want different rules, set up your own charity bet.

POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

Testing out the wisdom of crowds.:p "Quantum Leap" FSD is defined as the ability to legally drive from Bel Air to SpaceX in Hawthorne without driver intervention on at least a third of attempts. Positive confirmation does not count as an intervention but declining confirmation does.

teslamotorsclub.com

We're very bad at making predictions. My prediction was (and is) never so this isn't the wager for me.