Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)

[Cosmacelf]

This is a re-run of the Charity bet #2 which is/was to predict when the first time Starship will orbit the earth. All participants must pinky swear they will donate $50 to the winner's chosen charity (to be chosen at time of winning).

I am slightly modifying this bet rerun. The upcoming expected SpaceX test where Starship reaches orbit velocity and then does a 3/4 orbit around the earth and splash down will count IF Starship actually survives intact enough to do a landing burn. ie. this bet is for a successful orbit velocity and re-entry (but not necessarily landing since it is expected to do an initial "landing" in the water).

@adiggs rules for this bet:

• Each participant chooses a year/month combo when the event will occur
• One contestant per month/year (get your votes in early!)
• The winner is the one that picks the month/year (or no winner if the event occurs in a month/year with no contestant)
• No Price is Right or nearest participant. Somebody gets the month/year right or not
• In the no-winner scenario then we just start up another charity bet
• If your month has gone by and you didn't win, you can choose a new month (but now you have to donate $100 if you lose).

Contestants:

Cosmacelf: August 2022
EVCollies: September 2022
ICUDoc: October 2022
Grendal: November 2022
Cosmacelf: December 2022
EVCollies: January 2023
DandAQ: February 2023
ICUDoc: March 2023
Electroman: April 2023
Cosmacelf: May 2023
adiggs: June 2023
Grendal: July 2023

 

[adiggs]

Dear lord do I want to lose this one: Put me down for June 2023.

Think of me as the degenerate player of lottery games. I've got my method for choosing my bets and it has effectively nothing to do with SpaceX, or Starship, or really anything. My win rate is entirely too high for such an unsophisticated, and lack of knowledge, approach.

 

[Grendal]

I'll go with November 2022.

 

[Cosmacelf]

@Grendal seems this sub doesn't allow posters to keep on editing the first post? Or did I lose that privilege?

Current contestants:

Cosmacelf: August 2022
Grendal: November 2022
adiggs: June 2023

 

[adiggs]

@Grendal seems this sub doesn't allow posters to keep on editing the first post? Or did I lose that privilege?

Current contestants:

Cosmacelf: August 2022
Grendal: November 2022
adiggs: June 2023

At some support level for the site, you gain the ability to edit the first post of any thread that you start.

 

[ICUDoc]

Starship reaches orbit velocity and re-entry (but not necessarily landing since it is expected to do an initial "landing" in the water)
I'm in.
Get this: October 2022!

 

[EVCollies]

September 2022 please!!!!

 

[DandAQ]

February 2023 for me please!!

 

[Cosmacelf]

My optimistic August 2022 bet is now looking even more optimistic. But, hey, July 2022 is still open!

SpaceX President updates schedule for Starship's orbital launch debut

SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell says that the company now expects Starbase to be ready for Starship’s first orbital launch attempt as early as June or July, pushing the schedule back another month or two. To accomplish that feat, SpaceX will need to more or less ace a wide range of...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

As we start June, I’m still cautiously optimistic that I can win with my August bet. Still plenty of months open for others to join in on the bet.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OMG, what is wrong with people? I tried to start a similar style charity bet in the Autonomous/AI area, and well, look at what happened:

Charity bet #1: When will existing FSD buyers get FSD?

In the TMC SpaceX forum we started some charity bets to predict when things will occur (Like first Starship orbital flight). The idea is that if you win, you get to name a charity, and all losers pinky swear they will donate $50 to that charity (to be chosen at time of winning). So I though...

teslamotorsclub.com

Is it me?

 

[Grendal]

OMG, what is wrong with people? I tried to start a similar style charity bet in the Autonomous/AI area, and well, look at what happened:

Charity bet #1: When will existing FSD buyers get FSD?

In the TMC SpaceX forum we started some charity bets to predict when things will occur (Like first Starship orbital flight). The idea is that if you win, you get to name a charity, and all losers pinky swear they will donate $50 to that charity (to be chosen at time of winning). So I though...

teslamotorsclub.com

Is it me?

Yikes! You walked into a buzzsaw there. ...You should really define what "driving" is... LOL What about "self"? "Full" has too many definitions. Does eating a meal before you activate it count?

They sure sucked the playful fun out of it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hey guys, July is still open for the bet…

 

[Grendal]

Even Elon is skeptical the first one will reach orbit. The timing for the second one is about right for the guesses.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Even Elon is skeptical the first one will reach orbit. The timing for the second one is about right for the guesses.

Ah, but he was skeptical that the first Falcon Heavy would succeed too. Come on folks, no one is taking July???

 

[adiggs]

Ah, but he was skeptical that the first Falcon Heavy would succeed too. Come on folks, no one is taking July???

Apparently we are all dubious of something happening that fast

 

[Cosmacelf]

Oblivious to the damage I sustained trying to get a charity bet going in the Autonomous/AI area, I went into the breach again, this time in the much larger Tesla Investment thread, and ... success!

Charity Bet #1: When Will TSLA close above $1250 (Post-split $416.67)

This charity bet is meant to be FUN. You get to predict which month/year TSLA will close at or above $1250 $416.67 (post split). If your prediction wins, you get to select a charity at that time that everyone participating in this charity bet will pinky swear they will donate $50 to. When I last...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Nikxice]

I'm sitting this one out, mainly because I think the Starship winner will fall somewhere between the chosen date range of August thru November '22.....Started thinking about some crazy odds. We're just shy of 50 years since a Saturn 5 rocket last launched. It too was unmanned, lofting the first US space station, Skylab. Now we have two vastly different heavy rockets, both with considerably more thrust, that could soon be leaving the planet. Incredibly these launches could happen within days of each other. NASA recently announced an SLS launch window between August 22 thru September 6.... So, perhaps an appeal is in the offing for anyone seeking minimal recognition as a non-wagering, potential Steely-Eyed (Heavy) Missile Man.....Who gets it up first, SLS or Starship? Banking on a higher probability of another Boeing/NASA rollback, my monopoly money is on SpaceX/Elon to upstage SLS.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm sitting this one out, mainly because I think the Starship winner will fall somewhere between the chosen date range of August thru November '22.....Started thinking about some crazy odds. We're just shy of 50 years since a Saturn 5 rocket last launched. It too was unmanned, lofting the first US space station, Skylab. Now we have two vastly different heavy rockets, both with considerably more thrust, that could soon be leaving the planet. Incredibly these launches could happen within days of each other. NASA recently announced an SLS launch window between August 22 thru September 6.... So, perhaps an appeal is in the offing for anyone seeking minimal recognition as a non-wagering, potential Steely-Eyed (Heavy) Missile Man.....Who gets it up first, SLS or Starship? Banking on a higher probability of another Boeing/NASA rollback, my monopoly money is on SpaceX/Elon to upstage SLS.

Remember that this is a modified first orbit bet. The Starship must make it back intact, not burn up or blow up in the atmosphere upon return. This might not happen until the third try. IMHO, there are lots of solid months to pick.

 

[EVCollies]

Remember that this is a modified first orbit bet. The Starship must make it back intact, not burn up or blow up in the atmosphere upon return. This might not happen until the third try. IMHO, there are lots of solid months to pick.

Still hoping to lose to your 8/22 bet.