Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)

[ecarfan]

I am slightly modifying this bet rerun. The upcoming expected SpaceX test where Starship reaches orbit velocity and then does a 3/4 orbit around the earth and splash down will count IF Starship actually survives intact enough to do a landing burn. ie. this bet is for a successful orbit velocity and re-entry (but not necessarily landing since it is expected to do an initial "landing" in the water).

By “landing burn” do you mean like an F9 booster where it is essentially vertical and over the target area and then the engines ignite just to null out the velocity?

I give a near zero probability of that happening on the upcoming Starship mission. While I firmly believe that by the end of this year SpaceX will land a Starship intact and on target after reaching orbital velocity I very much doubt that will happen on the first try.

I hope I’m wrong!
———————-

EDIT: Apologies, now I see the bet is about when a landing — as defined in your post — will be successful, not if the first test flight landing will be successful.

 

[Cosmacelf]

While I firmly believe that by the end of this year SpaceX will land a Starship intact and on target after reaching orbital velocity I very much doubt that will happen on the first try.

I hope I’m wrong!
———————-

EDIT: Apologies, now I see the bet is about when a landing — as defined in your post — will be successful, not if the first test flight landing will be successful.

Correct, and I note that December is still available!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Gotta get my gloating in as I sit on the August date. The date will probably either slip or the contraption will blow up, but I can at least dream.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544742010946461697

 

[EVCollies]

Gotta get my gloating in as I sit on the August date. The date will probably either slip or the contraption will blow up, but I can at least dream.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544742010946461697

I have many dreams on this forum and hope some of them realize.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sigh, looks like @ICUDoc is sitting on prime real estate now with this charity bet. The pad explosion, while not major, was apparently major enough to cause months of delay, according to this tweet. I will note that December is still available for anyone who hasn't bet yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549668274580905984

 

[ICUDoc]

The pad explosion

I had NOTHING to do with it, Cosmacelf!
I wasn't even in the hemisphere!!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon's latest prediction. Come on guys, there's still some choice months within Elon's predicted timeframe.

BTW, Tesla shareholder meeting Bingo is up: https://mfbc.us/v/pkqj387

Everyone gets a randomized card. If you get BINGO, post your screenshot in the perpetual investor's thread to win a prize.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Well, looks like I‘ve lost this bet since August has come and gone.

Or have I? No one grabbed December 2022, so I’m double dipping according to the new rules and now have a December 2022 bet active. I’ll have to now pay $100 to the charity…

According to this, NET is now October. I don’t know how accurate this is, but @EVCollies who has September 2022 might be getting a bit worried…

 

[Electroman]

Q2 next year

 

[Cosmacelf]

Q2 next year

Want to be part of the charity bet? Just pick a free month. See first post for open months and rules.

 

[EVCollies]

Well, looks like I‘ve lost this bet since August has come and gone.

Or have I? No one grabbed December 2022, so I’m double dipping according to the new rules and now have a December 2022 bet active. I’ll have to now pay $100 to the charity…

According to this, NET is now October. I don’t know how accurate this is, but @EVCollies who has September 2022 might be getting a bit worried…

I haven't spent anytime considering who should receive donations.

Want to be part of the charity bet? Just pick a free month. See first post for open months and rules.

Not really a free month but an available month...

 

[Electroman]

Ma

Want to be part of the charity bet? Just pick a free month. See first post for open months and rules.

Thanks. Read the rules. April 2023.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks. Read the rules. April 2023.

Yea! Another sucker contestant! Hey, there are two more SpaceX charity bets and an Investor charity bet on-going:

Charity bet #4: First Successful Starship Landing

A discussion thread to figure out what our next charity bet regarding Starship progress will be, along with any updates to how we conduct and judge the bet. As the winner of bet #3 I get to start this discussion. My primary contribution is the mechanics side. What the bet itself will be -...

teslamotorsclub.com

Charity bet #5: First Starship Booster Intact Landing

New charity bet to select the month/year when SpaceX will land a Starship BOOSTER, intact on the ground (or ocean platform), such that it could be reflown if they chose to do so. All participants must pinky swear they will donate $50 to the winner's chosen charity (to be chosen at time of...

teslamotorsclub.com

Charity Bet #1: When Will TSLA close above $1250 (Post-split $416.67)

This charity bet is meant to be FUN. You get to predict which month/year TSLA will close at or above $1250 $416.67 (post split). If your prediction wins, you get to select a charity at that time that everyone participating in this charity bet will pinky swear they will donate $50 to. When I last...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[EVCollies]

So much new info on Twitter

• Booster 7 getting reliability upgrades
• Booters 9 (in process) has many design changes, especially for isolating engine RUD
• (Sub) orbital test late October or, more likely, November
• Will have two full stacks ready in November and a production rate of one full stack every two months
• Can transport ships from Brownsville to Cape
• 39-A launch around Q2 2023 with TX built stack

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572568337263243264

September 2022 please!!!!

Snnfff

 

[Cosmacelf]

Snnfff

Hey, you‘ll get a chance to double down and pick another month…

 

[Cosmacelf]

Uh oh. Looks like Grendal has the inside track right now, with ICUdoc and me with my double or nothing bet having an outside chance.

SpaceX Starship orbital flight 'highly likely' in November, Elon Musk says

But late October is still in play as well.

www.space.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

And another one bites the dust. @EVCollies lost the September position. There's still a month not far from now you can scoop up if you want to double down like I did.

 

[EVCollies]

I'll take Jan 2023 for the double. I better not be choosing the charity!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Oooohhh! I'm sitting in the catbird seat right now with my second crack at the bet!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1587094533136957444

 

[Grendal]

More on the December launch:

NASA predicts first Starship orbital launch as soon as December - SpaceNews

NASA expects SpaceX to be ready to attempt a first orbital flight of its Starship vehicle as soon as early December, pending tests and regulatory approvals.

spacenews.com