Charity bet #5: First Starship Booster Intact Landing

[Cosmacelf]

New charity bet to select the month/year when SpaceX will land a Starship BOOSTER, intact on the ground (or ocean platform), such that it could be reflown if they chose to do so.

All participants must pinky swear they will donate $50 to the winner's chosen charity (to be chosen at time of winning).

Rules for this bet:

• Each participant chooses a year/month combo when the event will occur
• One contestant per month/year (get your votes in early!)
• The winner is the one that picks the month/year (or no winner if the event occurs in a month/year with no contestant)
• No Price is Right or nearest participant. Somebody gets the month/year right or not
• In the no-winner scenario then we just start up another charity bet
• If your month has gone by and you didn't win, you can choose a new month (but now you have to donate $100 if you lose).

Contestants:

Ben W: December 2022
Cosmacelf: January 2023
Grendal: March 2023
EVCollies: April 2023
adiggs: June 2023
Grendal: August 2023
Nikxice: September 2023
Cosmacelf: November 2023

 

[adiggs]

Ooh - I like that last rule -- sign up for a second month when the first goes by if desired, but then you're also in for 2 units. Much better than what I had been thinking.

Put me in for June 2023.


I've just realized my new charity bet strategy - as long as -something- happens in June 2023, I'm golden!@

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ooh - I like that last rule -- sign up for a second month when the first goes by if desired, but then you're also in for 2 units. Much better than what I had been thinking.

Yeah, in a way, it encourages people to be optimistic since they can get two or more cracks at the prize. And it keep people involved and increases the charity pot.

 

[Grendal]

March 2023

 

[Cosmacelf]

Contestants:

Cosmacelf: January 2023
Grendal: March 2023
adiggs: June 2023

Incidentally (since I'm a computer programmer, I think about edge cases all the time), the month shall be determined using the local time of the event completion (in this case, Booster landing).

 

[Ben W]

December 2022. (I'm an optimist.)

Cosmacelf, what if the booster lands precisely on the International Date Line, at the stroke of midnight, during a leap second?

 

[Cosmacelf]

December 2022. (I'm an optimist.)

Cosmacelf, what if the booster lands precisely on the International Date Line, at the stroke of midnight, during a leap second?

And that is why every program has bugs

At some point, the programmer says to themselves, you know, condition X is so unlikely and I don’t have the energy or time to write and debug an extra 100 lines of code for this crap…

 

[Ben W]

And that is why every program has bugs

At some point, the programmer says to themselves, you know, condition X is so unlikely and I don’t have the energy or time to write and debug an extra 100 lines of code for this crap…

// This should never happen.

An ironclad guarantee that this will, actually, happen.

 

[adiggs]

// This should never happen.

An ironclad guarantee that this will, actually, happen.

"Should" is a 4 letter word. And a good indicator of where to look first for problems.

 

[EVCollies]

April 2023, national collie week...

 

[Nikxice]

Going long with a prediction here. The first Super Heavy to be successfully grabbed by Mechazilla will be a sight to behold. Until that happens, further rocket iterations and/or environmental impact delays could possibly eat away months for this still unflown booster. Charity wise...thinking big. Cats and dogs?....I'll find a whole damn needy zoo!....September 2023

 

[Cosmacelf]

Going long with a prediction here. The first Super Heavy to be successfully grabbed by Mechazilla will be a sight to behold. Until that happens, further rocket iterations and/or environmental impact delays could possibly eat away months for this still unflown booster. Charity wise...thinking big. Cats and dogs?....I'll find a whole damn needy zoo!....September 2023

Note that the booster does not technically have to land at mechzilla, as long as it is a good landing. I would expect SpaceX to land Boosters at mechzilla but maybe for the first one they won’t.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, to address an annoying question (), @Ben W , the date used shall be local time of the landing itself at the landing site.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So … the plot thickens. It is possible (via a regulatory filing), that the very first booster flight will come back to Starbase for a chopstick landing. Right now, the earliest bet month is December 2022. Earlier months are available for those that want to be optimistic.

SpaceX wants to attempt Starship booster catch during first orbital launch

An updated document submitted by SpaceX to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has revealed details about the company’s plan for the first Starship booster ‘catch’ attempt. The document follows a different batch submitted by SpaceX in June 2021, when the company detailed its plans for...

www.teslarati.com

 

[EVCollies]

Anyone here without optimism?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just bumping up this thread, this bet is still active and there are lots of good months to pick. I made a second pick…

 

[Grendal]

I'll take August 2023. I might be late. If the April launch is successful at all then Elon will push for a second launch ASAP. I'd say three months or less. If there is an issue then six months or less.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like we are at least four boosters away from this happening. The first three boosters are all expected to hover slam into the ocean I believe. I’m feeling good about my revised bet position, but this could easily slip into 2024.

 

[Nikxice]

After this first test flight, hoping for six week turnarounds. Believe the inventory will be available. So barring any serious damage around the pad or major SH/Starship design iterations, September looms large for success!

 

[Grendal]

I expect the Raptor engine output will have the biggest impact on how many launches will happen. Elon made a huge fuss about this a while back. If I remember correctly, he wants the manufacturing to hit one engine a day.