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Charity bets: $100/$1K/$10K -> EAP/FSD feature release by 12/31, 1/31, 3/31

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Dear Elon - please help me again. You saved my buttocks from a "Pwned by Mobileye" tattoo when you bestowed firmware 0.40 and its cousins on the world before October 31. Now please save my wallet from intense pain:

$100 bet that new AP features will be released by 12/31/17: I've pledged $100 to charity in a bet against @TaoJones - I am confident you'll give the world at least one new feature of EAP/FSD by December 31 2017.

$1,000 bet on new AP feature release by January 31 2018: This is valid if no features are released by 01/31/17

$10,000 of mah money to charity if not even one EAP/FSD feature goes into wide release by end of Q1 2018 - Yes really.

If I can't find any takers for the one thousand dollar bet I'll bet against myself. Yes - either way I will donate $1,000 to charity (but I damn well hope that the "yes" bet wins). If there is a taker for the $10,000 bet it's on - but if not, sorry won't bet on myself with this one - I really want to keep my ten grand.

BTW - I still owe car washes to some folks in So Cal but it ain't my fault nobody ever collected.

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Just posting to say that I'll join the festivities. I'll put down $10 that EAP will not see any truly new features by 12/31. That means I exclude those that would bring it up to AP1 parity, e.g. showing car / motorcycle / truck on the dash, etc... I'll just bet against myself, but if I lose, I will let @calisnow decide to which charity the money goes.

Good luck everyone!
 
$100 bet that new AP features will be released by 12/31/17: I've pledged $100 to charity in a bet against @TaoJones - I am confident you'll give the world at least one new feature of EAP/FSD by December 31 2017.

$1,000 bet on new AP feature release by January 31 2018: This is valid if no features are released by 01/31/17

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These bet's are way to wide open, you need to define what qualifies as a new AP feature, is better lane holding new for example? Or does it have to be something explicit in the EAP guidelines ie onramp to onramp for highways? And what happens if the $100 bet is made (not likely), does that mean you must have an "additional" new feature for Jan 31 or does the Dec release win both bets?

next month highly doubtful, jan 2018 less doubtful but unlikely
 
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Good lord I can't afford a $10K loss. This is really testing my faith.
Just posting to say that I'll join the festivities. I'll put down $10 that EAP will not see any truly new features by 12/31. That means I exclude those that would bring it up to AP1 parity, e.g. showing car / motorcycle / truck on the dash, etc... I'll just bet against myself, but if I lose, I will let @calisnow decide to which charity the money goes.

Good luck everyone!
And the same to you sir!
 
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These bet's are way to wide open, you need to define what qualifies as a new AP feature, is better lane holding new for example? Or does it have to be something explicit in the EAP guidelines ie onramp to onramp for highways? And what happens if the $100 bet is made (not likely), does that mean you must have an "additional" new feature for Jan 31 or does the Dec release win both bets?

next month highly doubtful, jan 2018 less doubtful but unlikely
Okay fair enough. Some clarification:
  • No - I am not so slimy as to try to weasel out of the bet by claiming that more reliable/smoother performance of existing functions counts. Lane holding further improved in poor lighting conditions would not count as a "new feature" for example.
  • Auto wipers would not count either, nor other "features" of that sort or easter eggs.
Examples of things which would count:
  • Elimination or drastic reduction of nags while using AP on freeways. If suddenly we tripled the time between nags because the side cameras are enabled - then that would count in my book. Lemme know if you disagree.
  • Auto lane change to maintain speed would count.
  • GPS route following across freeway interchanges and taking exits automatically would count.
  • Obviously city driving FSD would count - negotiating four way stops with other cars, turning automatically at intersections, etc. I don't expect this to happen but it would of course count.
If the 12/31 bet is won my other bets are off - i.e. they only become "active" if prior dates are missed. I am certainly *not* claiming that after a Dec 31 feature release that 4 weeks later I'm so confident another feature is released that I'm putting $1,000 on the line - and then $10K for Q1 2018, etc.

The bet amounts are increasing by factors of 10 because I'm increasingly confident that by Q1 2018 we will see *something* in terms of features.
 
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Okay fair enough. Some clarification:
  • No - I am not so slimy as to try to weasel out of the bet by claiming that more reliable/smoother performance of existing functions counts. Lane holding further improved in poor lighting conditions would not count as a "new feature" for example.
  • Auto wipers would not count either, nor other "features" of that sort or easter eggs.
Examples of things which would count:
  • Elimination or drastic reduction of nags while using AP on freeways. If suddenly we tripled the time between nags because the side cameras are enabled - then that would count in my book. Lemme know if you disagree.
  • Auto lane change to maintain speed would count.
  • GPS route following across freeway interchanges and taking exits automatically would count.
  • Obviously city driving FSD would count - negotiating four way stops with other cars, turning automatically at intersections, etc. I don't expect this to happen but it would of course count.
If the 12/31 bet is won my other bets are off - i.e. they only become "active" if prior dates are missed. I am certainly *not* claiming that after a Dec 31 feature release that 4 weeks later I'm so confident another feature is released that I'm putting $1,000 on the line - and then $10K for Q1 2018, etc.

The bet amounts are increasing by factors of 10 because I'm increasingly confident that by Q1 2018 we will see *something* in terms of features.

I don’t know about the nag thing, but the others are all spot on.

Having picked up cars at the factory twice now, both at end of quarter and one being end of year as well, I can only say that both times it’s been all hands on deck (up to just shy of senior management, and that’s not saying they weren’t - just that I didn’t see any) on the ground, moving cars, charging cars, solving delivery due bill problems and otherwise working with customers. Platooning cars in and out of very large tents by the never-ending dozens (and dozens). And now with the alternate delivery location, there’s that.

Point being, it’s all about making numbers at year end. If they haven’t QAd a (firmware) release by about next week, I don’t see it happening for 2017.

I think your money is safe for the end of Q1, certainly. That’s when we got AP1 TACC in early 2015, for example.

Whether they introduce auto lane change (the focus of our wager) or anything else by eoy 2017 is an open question.

All I know is that today with *.44 AP2, there were 2 notable disengagements as the car crossed lane markers causing adjacent cars to honk and both cars (mine and theirs) to swerve slightly (manually). AP1 didn’t cross lane markers (in CA these look like tiny speed bumps for those unfamiliar) this past Spring.

So I’d prefer if they continued to improve *that* instead of adding new features, but as I said in the other post, I also hope you’re right as it would show forward progress.

From the glass of kool aid half full department, how nice it would be to have an EAP feature, an FSD feature, and 3,000/week Model 3 production all achieved by the end of Q1. I know they said 5,000/week. Figure end of Q2 for that maybe.

And a crew cab pickup truck design rendering (that would compete with the current 1-ton, dually, and flat/stakebed market) for 2020.

Hey, a guy can dream.