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Cheap Oil; Long-term Good or Bad environmentally?

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by nwdiver, Mar 30, 2015.

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Cheap Oil; Good or Bad for long-term climate change?

  1. Good

    6 vote(s)
    23.1%
  2. Bad

    15 vote(s)
    57.7%
  3. Not Sure

    5 vote(s)
    19.2%
  1. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    I'm of two minds on this topic....

    Good thing;
    Cheap oil like the Saudis have is probably going to get extracted no matter what... Oil <$50/bbl means that as a percentage of our consumption we're using the cheap stuff far more than the more expensive dirty stuff. Tar Sands will also stay where it is until oil is >$100/bbl.

    Bad thing;
    It does make it slightly more challenging to sell people on not burning oil when gasoline is <$3/gal.
     
  2. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    A couple well placed Scud missiles from Iran in the upcoming war will remove the phrase "cheap oil" from the blogosphere forever. All the oil will end up being burned, just not in the way that you are thinking...

    RT
     
  3. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    That escalated quickly.
     
  4. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Saudi has Patriot PAC-3's, don't they?

    Can't imaging a Scud B still being successful nowadays.
     
  5. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    Further escalation of the conflict in the Mid-East would make it more difficult for the Saudis to export oil but that oil would still be there... ready to be cheaply extracted and sold once things calm down.

    The question is; cheap oil today (the stuff that's probably going to get extracted no matter what) or higher oil prices today (encouraging a more rapid transition to EVs)
     
  6. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    I've been going back and forth for a while now too. I say since Tesla is production constrained and needs the Gigafactory for Model 3 and other manufacturers won't release EVs that go over 150 miles until 2017-18, gas prices are doable now. Otherwise if they were high, what EV would people jump to that can't afford a Model S? It would just be a hit on people's finances while still polluting the air.....

    I would love for oil prices to jump fast in late 2016/early 2017. Make it where it hurts the American people's pocket for a little bit and then they will see the light once the new EVs hit production.
     
  7. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    Agreed; IMO the primary benefit of this collapse is that it's destroying and delaying a lot of infrastructure. Banks are losing $100s of Millions and will likely be a little more reluctant in the future to loan money for oil exploration and extraction. Volatility will probably be a better motivator for switching than a high price that people gradually grow accustomed to. I expect oil to get one more pop >$100/bbl before alternatives suppress it <$30/bbl and it loses relevance.
     
  8. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    Of course cheap oil/poison is bad for the environment,
     
  9. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    This is one of the reasons European Governments heavily tax gas. Another reason is for funding the public sector.

    So gas prices have not gone down as much as in the US - percentage wise.
     
  10. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    True... but it's a bit more complicated than that; Oil is an inelastic commodity... consumption generally doesn't respond quickly to a change in price. Wether oil is $30/bbl or $200/bbl the US is going to use ~30Mbbl/day. The only question is where that oil is coming from... @$30/bbl you're losing money unless you're getting it from the mid-east or a few wells in Texas. >$100/bbl and oil sands are viable.

    If cheap oil persists longer than ~5 years that's probably bad but a few dips below $50/bbl is bad for the industry and good for the planet IMO.
     
  11. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    I say very bad, my concerns are two fold:

    a) Cheap oil from anywhere kills off low carbon alternatives worldwide because stop and go development is very expensive.
    b) Cheap Middle East oil sets back energy independence from very unstable areas thereby increasing the probability of the US waging more oil wars.
     
  12. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    That, and where the money is going to...
     
  13. bluenation

    bluenation Member

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    it's good

    1) it ****s up alberta's oil profitability

    2) US military shares the brunt of subsidizing the hidden cost of oil (lets face it, they gonna b there til Jesus comes)

    3) extra $$$ in my pocket. and my friends pockets.

    4) OPEC life expectancy (and esp Saudi oil) is shorter and shorter

    5) it ****s up Russia's oil profitability

    basically , it helps the poor plebes of the world, and hurts the rich oilmen. Wel, kinda. Sorta.
     
  14. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Yes, but none of these points relate to the environment, which was the question posed.
     
  15. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Active Member

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    Any slowing down of tar sands extraction or operations that require steaming or some other expensive waste of energy is a good thing.
     
  16. drinkerofkoolaid

    drinkerofkoolaid Active Member

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    #16 drinkerofkoolaid, Mar 31, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2015
    If there is too much oil, due to over supply, and the oil needs to be moved, but it isn't cost effective to ship it anywhere, what happens to the oil?

    Gas prices continuing to fall, won't cause people to drive more, and would just cause the public roads to wear out faster, since people will be less conscious about fuel efficiency when buying new vehicles. What sane politician wants the roads to fall apart, and US carbon emissions to skyrocket?

    Why is North Carolina trying to reduce the gasoline tax? Isn't gas in North Carolina already among the cheapest in the USA?

    New NC gas tax bill could cut costs at the pump | myfox8.com
     
  17. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    Bad. Awful. Terrible. Stupid.
     
  18. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    + 1
     
  19. bluenation

    bluenation Member

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  20. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    #20 nwdiver, Apr 5, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016
    Well; Cheap oil has created an opportunity... sadly the odds are good that we're going to squander it.

     

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