That thread already shows there will be 200 chargers installed in California (where a bulk of the first cars will go). I suspect GM will push from some in Oregon too. But all this comes down to UL certification being done first.
I don't think that you actually read the "dissenting" posts. Yes, *IF* GM can convince CARB that their Spark EV sold in California and Oregon is NOT a compliance car (that's in the NRG/EVgo agreement), and there are TWO available Frankenplug charger manufacturers on the market, THEN there will be 200 Frankenplugs.... drum roll... in FOUR YEARS.
I'm not concerned whether GM meets that threshold or not, because I believe that in January 2014, when BMW releases the i3 to the USA, it obviously is NOT a compliance car since BMW is not one of the six Very Large Manufacturers. If it has Frankenplug, as everybody believes, then sometime in 2014 the NRG/EVgo deal will kick into gear.
One bad part of the California NRG/EVgo deal for the Frankenplug consortium... it doesn't kill CHAdeMO... actually, there will be 200 CHAdeMOs sitting right next to a Frankenplug in FOUR years.
And Plugshare shows 165 CHAdeMO charging locations right now (this includes some "residential" ones, so some are probably not really CHAdeMO ones), which matches with the recent 160 public chargers estimate from Nissan in the beginning of the year (doesn't match with the 368 on Tony's slide, I suspect that counts multiple chargers for the superchargers since there's multiple bays, and might count blink chargers twice because of the dual connectors).
I was merely quoted their data, but yes, I suspect your thoughts are correct as to the count.
I've already gone through the reasons why they didn't stick with CHAdeMO: mainly single socket AC/DC, V2G support out of the box (CHAdeMO has V2H which was added recently, still no V2G capability yet). With the EU exclusion of CHAdeMO, the Combo connector is also the better choice for international harmonization.
Ingineer seems to think that CHAdeMO might get some official sanction in EU, but obviously, the Germans will lock up their country to protect their German manufacturers who have all signed on to the Frankenplug Euro 3 phase Spec.
I can't wait to plug in my BMW i3 purchased in Germany that I had shipped over here... oops, it won't plug in to the "international harmonization".
The single socket concept was silly from the get-go, unless they wanted to do it like Tesla. That makes sense. Frankly, I'd like a more robust latch mechanism when 200+ amps are flowing, but I don't really like the "aircraft refueling nozzle" that is the Yazaki CHAdeMO plug (no, they aren't all that heavy and clunky!!!).
Please expand on the difference between V2G and V2H. You write like Frankenplug "had it first" when you realize that there really isn't a Frankenplug yet. Yes, CHAdeMO updated their firmware (without telling anybody) for V2H.