Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[FlasherZ]

I'm understanding the above as:
GM knows how to scale production of electric vehicles, and tesla still does not know hot to increase production.

Please remove the distortion field from my eyes and let me see how GM is increasing production and tesla is standing still. Please.

I didn't say they were standing still, I said - very simply - that GM knows a level of scale that Tesla has not figured out yet, and is even struggling with.

I said the following:

Tesla has its largest scaling issues ahead of it: sales, service, charging, production. You're already seeing overloading stress at Superchargers in California, production missed their original targets for 2015, some service centers have a month wait for moderate-level issues.

Those very issues are an example of scaling challenges they haven't figured out yet.

Tesla's level is 1/200th that of GM. GM has much greater experience than Tesla in manufacturing scale - and while you might argue that electric vehicles are different, certainly the manufacturing processes aren't radically different. In some ways, that's a positive for GM (been there before), and in some ways it's a negative (tribal knowledge resistance).

I never said Tesla wouldn't figure it out; I said that GM has an advantage here over Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

The Volt has a max regen option that can always be on (L-low gear I've put 65K on my 2011 Volt in "Low). We have the paddle regen in the 2016 Volt and it works excellent. Very handy for corners, stoplights, and offramps that are slow ... and it added to the regen from "low". For stoplights/signs, it means you can let off your accel pedal just a little bit later ... which is great when you are in a variety of traffic situations with people following you. Paddle regen turns on the brake light too.

I was thinking that extra paddle regen might be interesting, but is it any better than just mapping the max regen allowed to the acceleration pedal and sticking with one pedal driving?

 

[dsm363]

Wrong, just wrong.

Tesla is doing everything necessary (GF) and GM is the one who is doing nothing (limited from the start up to 30k vehicles per year for at least next 4 years). No internal know how, not internal resources. Dependant on LG that is also doing nothing to expand.

Feel free to short the stock.

mod note: when you quote someone try and leave the quote tags in place so people can see who you are quoting and click on the arrow to go directly to the post.

 

[Oba]

Wasn't LG already quoted saying $145/kWh?

Yes, $145 now, $100 in 2020.

 

[jgs]

I was thinking that extra paddle regen might be interesting, but is it any better than just mapping the max regen allowed to the acceleration pedal and sticking with one pedal driving?

For my money: no.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla is doing NOTHING near the level that is required to generate 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars per year, much less GM's 9.9M in 2014.

Let's put it in perspective, last year Tesla delivered 0.5% of what GM did in 2014.

Tesla has its largest scaling issues ahead of it: sales, service, charging, production. You're already seeing overloading stress at Superchargers in California, production missed their original targets for 2015, some service centers have a month wait for moderate-level issues.

I think you are talking past each other. You are talking about scaling in general. He is talking about scaling in terms of EVs (particularly large battery BEVs).

For EVs, Tesla has scaled faster than anyone outside of Nissan (depending on what metric, perhaps even surpassing them if you count by battery capacity or revenue). There are unique challenges to EVs (in particular the battery supply) that limit the amount of scaling you can do. GM can't make more than 30k Bolts a year without the battery supply. I think his point is Tesla is readying their battery supply to support 500k annual BEVs by 2020, while GM (and their supplier) has not.

GM also faces a new challenge in promoting and servicing EVs using their dealer network (as does Nissan). It's almost like starting all over again (they need "specialists"). While previously they got away with situations where the prospective buyers knew more about the car than the dealership, I don't think GM/Nissan can reach 100k+ annual sales a year without changing this. Their dealerships also have conflicting interests (much easier to sell a cheaper Trax today given the low gas prices). I'm not convinced their sales and service network is ahead of Tesla in this regard.

The charging network, I don't need to go into detail. GM has done almost nothing in this regard (other than using politics to try to trip others, for example calling CARB to ban any public funding of CHAdeMO stations going forward). Nissan has done far more and yet their network is still far less useful than Tesla's. So far no automaker has demonstrated they can build a charging network anywhere close to Tesla's. If you think the weekend example of Tejon ranch is that significant, you have not seen the daily challenges of using competing networks (location off hours, waiting half an hour to find a person to let you charge, chargers broken for months and not repaired, only one charger per location so long waits if there is even moderate demand, etc).

Certainly Model 3 will be a challenge in terms of scaling in general, but at least on the EV side, Tesla has demonstrated they can scale in a rapid pace.

 

[tga]

Ok, so I'm blinded by those distortion fields...

Would you pleas explain this statement of yours then?



I'm understanding the above as:
GM knows how to scale production of electric vehicles, and tesla still does not know hot to increase production.

Please remove the distortion field from my eyes and let me see how GM is increasing production and tesla is standing still. Please.

You can't fixate on EV's, else you ignore all the other issues common to building ICE's and EV's.

There's much more to building and selling 500,000 EVs/year. It's more than just building/acquiring lots of batteries. Sales, service, distribution, factory space, brake systems, steering, interiors, etc, etc, etc. Ignore the drivetrains (for the moment), and GM has already figured out how to do everything else at scale. Tesla hasn't demonstrated that ability yet on anything but battery production.

 

[scottf200]

I think you are talking past each other. You are talking about scaling in general. He is talking about scaling in terms of EVs (particularly large battery BEVs).

For EVs, Tesla has scaled faster than anyone outside of Nissan (depending on what metric, perhaps even surpassing them if you count by battery capacity or revenue). There are unique challenges to EVs (in particular the battery supply) that limit the amount of scaling you can do. GM can't make more than 30k Bolts a year without the battery supply. I think his point is Tesla is readying their battery supply to support 500k annual BEVs by 2020, while GM (and their supplier) has not.

GM also faces a new challenge in promoting and servicing EVs using their dealer network (as does Nissan). It's almost like starting all over again (they need "specialists"). While previously they got away with situations where the prospective buyers knew more about the car than the dealership, I don't think GM/Nissan can reach 100k+ annual sales a year without changing this. Their dealerships also have conflicting interests (much easier to sell a cheaper Trax today given the low gas prices). I'm not convinced their sales and service network is ahead of Tesla in this regard.

The charging network, I don't need to go into detail. GM has done almost nothing in this regard. Nissan has done far more and yet their network is still far less useful than Tesla's. So far no automaker has demonstrated they can build a charging network anywhere close to Tesla's.

Certainly Model 3 will be a challenge in terms of scaling in general, but at least on the EV side, Tesla has demonstrated they can scale in a rapid pace.

Good points BUT you have to appreciate that LG Chem knows how to build batteries and can scale. Numerous articles on this and their growing factories ( lg chem battery factory - Google Search ). LG Chem has experience and is growing rapidly.

The First American Gigafactory Probably Won’t Be from Tesla-- Sam Abuelsamid — October 26, 2015
Link: t Be from Tesla Navigant Research

All these big players know how to scale vehicles in general. Lines, suppliers, workers, etc, etc. This is what they deliver MONTHLY!
AND they deliver products on time. My Gen II 2016 Volt was 1 week late. I had a deposit on an X for 3 years.

Via: Top 30 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - December 2015 - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

 

[SmartElectric]

On the other hand where I am in Minnesota is about -5f today and I am not sure that people who live in California and the south know how difficult it is for the average person who does not want to make a lot of sacrifice to run pure EV during a polar vortex.

Um, this guy has a lot of proof that Tesla got it right when it comes to designing a car for adverse winter conditions:
Bjørn's Tesla Model S videos

Are all of us thousands of Canadian owners wrong too? Please!! Tesla is an amazing winter car.

My Smart ED is also awesome in the winter (see my blog for proof):
Smart Electric Drive: Smart in the snow

There is nothing better in the winter than a car that warms up quick, when idle at a stop light doesn't smell like gas fumes, and pre-heats before you get in it in your garage.

 

[Cyclone]

Um, this guy has a lot of proof that Tesla got it right when it comes to designing a car for adverse winter conditions:
Bjørn's Tesla Model S videos

Are all of us thousands of Canadian owners wrong too? Please!! Tesla is an amazing winter car.

My Smart ED is also awesome in the winter (see my blog for proof):
Smart Electric Drive: Smart in the snow

There is nothing better in the winter than a car that warms up quick, when idle at a stop light doesn't smell like gas fumes, and pre-heats before you get in it in your garage.

Agreed. While some decisions around operational characteristics could be better inclined to winter regions (such as early 7.0's energy efficiency over heat performance decision), the car's capabilities are well done for the most part (the concave radar unit being an notable exception here).

 

[Yuri_G]

Good points BUT you have to appreciate that LG Chem knows how to build batteries and can scale. Numerous articles on this and their growing factories ( lg chem battery factory - Google Search ). LG Chem has experience and is growing rapidly.

The First American Gigafactory Probably Won’t Be from Tesla-- Sam Abuelsamid — October 26, 2015
Link: t Be from Tesla Navigant Research
View attachment 107668

All these big players know how to scale vehicles in general. Lines, suppliers, workers, etc, etc. This is what they deliver MONTHLY!
AND they deliver products on time. My Gen II 2016 Volt was 1 week late. I had a deposit on an X for 3 years.

View attachment 107669
Via: Top 30 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - December 2015 - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

Yes, LG has made it clear that they will scale to make enough batteries for 30k Bolts per year. Wake us up when that number is over 100k. Until then it is not a mass market car, just another headline grab before another recall catastrophe.

 

[Jeff N]

Wrong, just wrong.

GM is the one who is doing nothing (limited from the start up to 30k vehicles per year for at least next 4 years). No internal know how, not internal resources. Dependant on LG that is also doing nothing to expand.

I doubt you are in a position to know this as fact. Are Bolt battery packs and thus car sales limited to 30k a year for the next four years? I've seen nothing to substantiate that. As far as I know, that 30k pack estimate came from people guessing at the spare production capacity at LG's Michigan battery cell factory but the cells are actually being made at a factory in Korea. GM itself has been saying they can scale up production within some unspecified boundaries that they don't think will limit them in reality. They have spokespeople telling media folks that they can make as many as they think they can realistically sell in the next several years. The cells and packs are being made, at least for now, at an LG factory in Korea. I doubt that you know the ability of LG to scale up production at that facility or to begin additional production in their Michigan plant.

In reality, GM is said to have about 1,000 people assigned to developing the Bolt. They are likely to be closely collaborating and reviewing the design of these components. We know from the wired article that GM is doing their own extensive "shake and bake" reliability testing of the Bolt battery pack and likely of the other components as well. I've been to one of GM's test labs but not the one discussed in the article. GM is said to have designed the motor that LG is manufacturing for the Bolt just like GM designed the motors for the Volt, Spark EV, and Malibu and build the Spark motor themselves. The smaller ferrite PM motor that has no rare earth metals in the Volt is quite innovative and the bigger Volt motor is state-of-the-art in reducing rare-earth metal use in its permanent magnets. The new Volt's inverter was designed together with Delphi and is very efficient and closely mirrors innovations designed independently by Toyota for their 4th gen Prius inverter. GM builds their own battery packs for the Volt, ELR, Spark EV, and CT6 hybrid plugin. There is little reason to believe that GM cannot or will not both design and build their own future motors, packs, etc. if it provides the best time-to-market and economic path. They also have limited resources at the moment who can engineer new plugin vehicles and platforms. Partnering with LG on the Bolt may not only provide cost and time-to-market benefits but it may also have freed-up GM resources to develop other plugin vehicles in parallel. For instance, they recently filed trademarks that seem related to an electrified Stingray Corvette. Trademarking names is usually a reliable sign that they are developing a production vehicle.

 

[techmaven]

Good points BUT you have to appreciate that LG Chem knows how to build batteries and can scale. Numerous articles on this and their growing factories ( lg chem battery factory - Google Search ). LG Chem has experience and is growing rapidly.

The First American Gigafactory Probably Won’t Be from Tesla-- Sam Abuelsamid — October 26, 2015
Link: t Be from Tesla Navigant Research

Hmm...

EV Sales: Battery Makers - June 2015

LG Chem sold about 0.9 GWh of automotive cells in 2014 and maybe 1.2 GWh in 2015. Soon they hope to move 2 GWh out of their roughly 5-6 GWh of capacity. Tesla sold almost 4 GWh last year, Panasonic obviously ramped up for far more than that (more like 5 GWh). The Gigafactory should add another 7 GWh while Panasonic ramps their Japanese plants to almost 6 GWh. At the end of 2017, LG might have around 6-7 GWh of capacity with another 1-2 coming on line in 2018. What's really big for them is actually using more than 50% of their nameplate capacity, so that their 2010-2012 investments actually start to pay off. Tesla will likely have 13 GWh, with another 7-8 GWh coming online.

The scale is completely different until the big automakers pony up some significant cash to alter the balance.

 

[scaesare]

Help me out. What is all this stuff?

View attachment 107641

All of this:

Plus all of this:

 

[Jeff N]

I was thinking that extra paddle regen might be interesting, but is it any better than just mapping the max regen allowed to the acceleration pedal and sticking with one pedal driving?

Being able to select substantial regen via the "accelerator pedal" is great but there is a downside to making it too strong. Drivers sometimes react to unexpected changes in traffic by taking their foot off the pedal in preparation to possibly use the brake pedal. In that circumstance, some good regen is useful but if it is too strong it can be unpleasant or undesired if the brake pedal doesn't actually end up needing to be used. It's useful to have a way for the driver to request additional regen with a paddle or some device other than the brake pedal because it guarantees that no friction brakes will unintentionally be used. I'm not sure, because I haven't driven the Bolt yet, but one video showing the Bolt being driven seemed to imply that using the paddle in the Bolt to bring the car to a complete stop would also "hold" the car (likely with friction brakes as with hill assist) and disable auto-creep without the driver needing to step on the brake pedal.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I'll say this. I'm impressed with the specs of the Bolt. I'll probably go test drive one when it comes out. It could fit my needs, but it will need a better quick charging network.

 

[Jeff N]

Yes, $145 now, $100 in 2020.

That was disclosed by GM in a financial conference call with Wall Street analysts. It was not disclosed by LG. The battery makers have been secretive about their pricing.

 

[rabar10]

One post moved to snippiness. Please be civil.

 

[igotzzoom]

I'll say this. I'm impressed with the specs of the Bolt. I'll probably go test drive one when it comes out. It could fit my needs, but it will need a better quick charging network.

Yes. Charging network is an issue for J1772/CCS cars. Hope this will be addressed at some point.

 

[flathillll]

The price of poor quality cells being higher than your claims for quality cells doesn't exactly support your position. Also, higher power cells usually have thinner components for faster ion transfer, which increases power delivery but reduces their capacity. Higher capacity cells usually have thicker components which slow their power delivery but increase their capacity. You've made some pretty extreme claims about cell costs with no credible sources to back it up. How about some good links showing the dramatic drop in lithium ion commodity pricing to prove your point?

high power cells require thicker foils, more doping to increase conductivity, and more binder.


I already provided a link to a cell cost calculator. again 5v operation changes the game. LG is only charging to 4.3V. NCM is designed to fail over time (manganese dissolution impossible to stop, first principles)

NCM is fine for the powerwall but sucks for a vehicle