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Chevy Bolt Article: Is it really so hard to be fair or balanced?

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Pedantically speaking all cars are compliance cars. If they weren't they wouldn't comply with seatbelt/abs/smog/xxx regulations.

TBH I think what will be interesting is how the EU's 2019 regulations play out. It's no coincidence that is when the EU manufacturers are all claiming starting EV production. The interesting thing the EU legislators have done is to make the penalties for CO2 emission painful enough the firms can no longer simply pay off the fines, but also forced it to be on decent sales volume, not just a super low volume model in their line up.
So, the EU might become the "New CARB", driving emissions reduction and the transition to electric cars? Interesting proposition...
 
So, the EU might become the "New CARB", driving emissions reduction and the transition to electric cars? Interesting proposition...

There has been a road map in play for a while. The background can be found here:
Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars - Climate Action - European Commission

I've heard lots of theories why the incumbent manufacturers aren't taking EV's seriously, some bordering on conspiracy grade. I think a more simplistic approach to why incumbent car makers are dragging their feet is more a financial decision. Basically they want to maximise profits up until they very last minute of the EU deadlines, and big batteries eat into margin. (Much like they did in the days of catalytic converter introduction).

I find it strange coincidence that Audi, MB and JLR all say they have cars coming in line with the changes to EU fleet targets, and in Jaguars case it will be launched in Europe first, despite CA seemingly being a "tamer" market. The two large scale battery plants coming on stream (LG Chem and Samsung both announcing big EU battery plants) are also around the same timescale.

Another interesting point that is happening over here is the changes for the testing process coming in to play in a couple of months.
From NEDC to WLTP: what will change? | WLTPfacts.eu


We all know that the NEDC is wildly unrepresentative. What is probably less well understood is how it can be mathematically gamed when you take into account PHEV's. There is a "magic number" baked in to the equivalency formula (if memory serves around 25km). Cars must be able to do an entire 11km cycle in pure EV mode, but get weighted based on if they hit the 25km figure which is supposed to represent typical commute distances. In theory this sounds sensible, but in practice it has lead to manufacturers all promoting cars with this sort of level of ideal battery range, even if it's a joke they would get near the rated mpg of the test. With tumbling mpg figures go escalating CO2/km figures.

If you start discounting these PHEVs (and bear in mind Mitsubishi alone has sold huge numbers of Outlander PHEV's here in the UK, probably an order of magnitude more than Tesla have Model S's) from the fleet averages the pressures get even more acute on manufacturers transitioning to BEV's (or PHEV's like the Volt with usable EV range).

Tail end of 2018 is going to be an interesting time for EV's globally IMHO. The EU manufacturers, forced by home soil legislation, will have a product that fits equally well both side of the pond.
 
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Unfortunately, long range EVs is not a scalable solution for the world. The world doesn't have enough battery resources and it requires massive charging infrastructure and change of habits for people. According to my math, with one new 35 GWh gigafactory built each year, it will take 200 years to transition the 2B cars to pure EVs, which may be a little too late. With a similar battery production ramp, entire worldwide new car production can be hybridized in 5-6 years, cutting global vehicle emissions in half within 20-25 years.

The alternate solution of hybrids is way better and more efficient, and works for all countries and living conditions. The adoption barrier is much lower as well.
With one 60 KWh battery pack, 40 hybrids can be produced, each consuming 40-50% less gasoline, thereby cutting emissions of ~20 cars. In effect, hybrid cars' efficient use of batteries is 20 times more powerful compared to a pure EV with 60KWh battery. Compared to a 100 KWh battery pack car, a hybrid with 1.5KWh battery is 33 times more effective in using the battery pack.
Moreover, a hybrid's reduction of emissions is completely decoupled from electric grid mix. it is a straight reduction of 40-50% over its non-hybrid counterpart.

There is also a question on the benefit of long range EVs when emissions and other environmental factors are considered for the entire lifecycle (LCA) of the car, not just tailpipe emissions.
New Study: Large CO2 Emissions From Batteries Of Electric Cars | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

If the governments of Europe are truly interested in cutting emissions, they should be promoting hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Otherwise, pushing a few million people to an unscalable solution may lead to a fiasco similar to the promotion of diesel vehicles in Europe over the last decade.
 
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each consuming 40-50% less gasoline, thereby cutting emissions of ~20 cars. In effect, hybrid cars' efficient use of batteries is 20 times more powerful compared to a pure EV with 60KWh battery
This is optimistic, but your overall point is spot-on. I'm going to buy a Model 3 because I can and want to support Tesla, and I have succumbed to the joy of all EV driving, but the Prius Prime in my driveway is a study in efficiency. I use it for my 90 mile work commute, and in our 3 months of ownership the car is at 112 mpg lifetime. That is a fantastic result from an 8.8 kWh battery and in widespread use would be much better since average car trip, even in the US, is considerably shorter.

Another interesting point about hybrids (I'm familiar with the Toyota variety) is their tolerance of battery degradation. A group of 10 year old Toyota hybrids tested showed no drop in MPG even though the batteries had degraded up to 50%.

And lastly, criteria pollutants are drastically decreased in a well designed hybrid. My use case of the Prius Prime works out to about 3 mg/mile Nox. To the extent that EVs are used with dirty grid power, they are waaay inferior .... in fact about as dirty as diesels. Up to 1000x more emissions per mile.
 
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@mmd I too am on the side of hybrids (especially plug in ones).

While one can argue that we are only moving the emission production problem from the tailpipe to the power station (or the battery production facility under LCA) it is hard to dispute the benefits of cleaner air in city centres, and the health benefits they bring. The next thing under the spotlight will be the health issues around direct injected gasoline engines, something the latest round of euro regulation is addressing to a point by mandating particulate filters in all ICE's not just diesel ones.

As for the EU rules pushing an unscalable technology, actually I think it's a bit more balanced than the ZEV system, and they way the "ZEV Classes" work, in effect promoting EV range over efficiency. Personally (and I am sure I'm in the minority here) I think it's a shame that the REX version of the Model S never came to life, something the ZEV rating system probably played a part in.
 
TBH I think what will be interesting is how the EU's 2019 regulations play out. It's no coincidence that is when the EU manufacturers are all claiming starting EV production. The interesting thing the EU legislators have done is to make the penalties for CO2 emission painful enough the firms can no longer simply pay off the fines, but also forced it to be on decent sales volume, not just a super low volume model in their line up.

GM pulling out of Europe was a sign of how the market's becoming less important, and it wasn't worth it to beat it's money-losing Opel/Vauxhall there.

What I think you're seeing a combination of factors at play including the EU targets, the China effect, Tesla proving long-range BEV and threatening to release a more affordable car, overall industry cost trends and, VW killing diesel.

The last was very important because it meant that Germany joined China, the USA, Japan, the UK and France in long-term support of electric (and/or electrification) over diesel. There was really nowhere to run after that and manufacturers simply _have_ to be vocal on electrification.
 
Sure, lets promote the continuation of technical gimmicks (PHEVs) over pure BEVs and spread FUD about GigaFactories where (gasp) batteries are being created from mud. And never ever refer to BEVs as 'solar/wind/hydro' cars. Always keep one foot firmly in the last century.
--
 
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According to my math, with one new 35 GWh gigafactory built each year, it will take 200 years to transition the 2B cars to pure EVs, which may be a little too late.
If and when battery demand outstrips supply your point will require careful consideration. As it is, the important metals are recycled so I don't have any qualms about being a battery pig today or for the next decade. I do agree with you that public subsidy would be best directed at PHEVs. In conjuction with a carbon tax the entire chain could be revenue and cost neutral and speed up the decarbonization of transport dramatically.

In anticipation of a probable response from someone (not you) that PHEVs will never be carbon free, that is an incomplete view of the carbon problem because it ignores all the ICEs that drain our remaining carbon budget while waiting for the inexpensive EV to come along.
 
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GM pulling out of Europe was a sign of how the market's becoming less important, and it wasn't worth it to beat it's money-losing Opel/Vauxhall there.

In part, but also in part due to some really clunky product. They really were squeezed between the premium brands and the budget stuff coming out of Korea.

It is interesting, to me at least that under the change of ownership PSA are saying the Bolt will come to the UK in RHD form. Of all the brands Peugeot are probably the best placed to hit targets (primarily down to the majority of cars being physically smaller), rather than needing major changes toward EV-ification.

Peugeot leads average CO2 emissions league table, as European total fell in 2016

What is quite ironic is that all the savings in the sports car segment were wiped out by the V8 Mustang, which has gone down a storm. Despite what manufacturers and regulators do, it seems that buyers are still being dragged kicking and screaming.
 
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You probably mean well, but conspiracy theories are not actually 'pro-EV', they are 'anti-EV' and help fuel the contempt many people, including the author of the article in question, have towards EV technology.

It's a pretty valid conspiracy theory when the conspirators admit that they're conspiring to hold back EVs....

There A LOT of downside and very very little upside for the LAMEs (Legacy Auto Manufacturing Enterprise) when it comes to the tradition to EVs. FUD is in their best interest. Kinda silly not to call them out on it.
 
It's a pretty valid conspiracy theory when the conspirators admit that they're conspiring to hold back EVs....

There A LOT of downside and very very little upside for the LAMEs (Legacy Auto Manufacturing Enterprise) when it comes to the tradition to EVs. FUD is in their best interest. Kinda silly not to call them out on it.

So you believe that GM owns oil wells, and is a division of Fiat since 2014? And GM gets CARB credits for non-CARB overseas sales due to a magic spell they cast? And that the minimum req is no longer 16kWh, but is now actually 60kWh?
 
So you believe that GM owns oil wells, and is a division of Fiat since 2014? And GM gets CARB credits for non-CARB overseas sales due to a magic spell they cast? And that the minimum req is no longer 16kWh, but is now actually 60kWh?

If you think GM wants the Bolt to sell at the expense of any of their beloved gas guzzling cars I've got a bridge to sell you.

The goal of the LAMEs is to maintain the appearance that they want EVs to succeed while doing everything they can to ensure they remain confined to the LEAF, BOLT, VOLT and Fiat 500e niche. Crippled by either short range or the sex appeal of a Frog. Why hasn't GM tried to put a Bolt drivetrain in a Camero style body with Tesla style Fast Charging? Could it be because that car would actually sell at the expense of fools fuel powered cars?

EVs are the future... but the longer the LAMEs can delay that future the better off they'll be. They've got Billions invested in ICE, emissions control and transmission technology. Investments that are next to worthless with EVs.
 
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If and when battery demand outstrips supply your point will require careful consideration. As it is, the important metals are recycled so I don't have any qualms about being a battery pig today or for the next decade. I do agree with you that public subsidy would be best directed at PHEVs. In conjuction with a carbon tax the entire chain could be revenue and cost neutral and speed up the decarbonization of transport dramatically.

My assumption , as stated, is 35 GWh (one Nevada GF) added each year, which is equal to batteries for 0.5M long range EVs like Model 3. Under that optimistic assumption, it takes 200 years to reach 100% EV sales in the world. (I'm ignoring for the moment that larger cars and SUvs need larger battery packs). If you say, demand will grow even slower than 0.5M cars a year (implying, 35 GWh added each year will not be fully utilized), then it only means an even slower transition to EVs. And so, a slower reduction in vehicular CO2 emissions.
if EVs can't even grow by 0.5M each year in worldwide sales, it means EVs are being forced upon people, . The actual growth in the last few years has been much less. There are better alternatives that require little to no subsidies, and do a more effective job in reducing emissions.

Check out how long it is taking Tesla to ramp to 35 GWh in Reno GF with all the govt support etc. They started back in 2014, still no word on their current cell production rate. This shows, that my assumption that 35 GWh is added each year is quite reasonable, mostly on the optimistic side.
 
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35 GWh (one Nevada GF)

Your FUD would be more realistic if you looked up the actual capacity of the Gigafactory.

"Its projected capacity for 2018 is 50 GWh/yr of battery packs and its final capacity upon completion of entire factory is 150 GWh/yr. This would enable Tesla to produce 1,500,000 cars per year."
"In May 2017 at a TED Talk, Elon Musk stated his intention to announce three of four new Gigafactory sites." [my emphasis]

While your at it, look up TaaS.

Thank you kindly.
 
Your FUD would be more realistic if you looked up the actual capacity of the Gigafactory.

"Its projected capacity for 2018 is 50 GWh/yr of battery packs and its final capacity upon completion of entire factory is 150 GWh/yr. This would enable Tesla to produce 1,500,000 cars per year."
"In May 2017 at a TED Talk, Elon Musk stated his intention to announce three of four new Gigafactory sites." [my emphasis]

While your at it, look up TaaS.

Thank you kindly.

In fairness, all the things I remember reading before the factory started construction were citing the 35 GWh number. Tesla and Panasonic have raised their goals considerably since.
 
if EVs can't even grow by 0.5M each year in worldwide sales, it means EVs are being forced upon people.
Or the cars being offered are just plain not sellable (short range, poor styling, no advertising, no dealer incentives to sell them, etc.) Bear in mind that dealers hate electric cars as much as ICE car manufacturers do, so neither put any effort into selling them, and try hard to steer the customer into an old fashioned car.

Something like a Leaf is a fine second car--at least if you don't live in a hot or cold climate--but most second cars are old primary cars. The only reason for most people to ever buy a new car for a second car are either the previous one was wrecked or there is a new driver.
 
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