Chevy Bolt Article: Is it really so hard to be fair or balanced?

[SageBrush]

This is getting dangerously close to the John Peterson argument, which presumes that the limiting factor is battery capacity in kWh.

I'm not making that argument since demand does not exceed battery supply, for now at least. It would be a nice problem to have !

I'm pointing out that a subsidized PHEV might have better pocket attraction (be cheaper) than a subsidized EV and offer 90% of the decarbonization, today.

E.g., if carbon taxation added $6,000 to the lifetime costs of an ICE, $600 to a PHEV and $0 to an EV, and a $6,000 rebate was offered on EVs, a $6,000 rebate on PHEVs and a $0 rebate on ICE cars, what would people buy who currently look to spend $20k on a car ? My thoughts are to a large extent motivated by my ownership of an 8.8 kWh Prius Prime PHEV that was 27k USD before tax credits.

Another way to frame the problem: When do you expect world-wide availability of long range EVs for $28k USD (before taxes or credits), and what would you have those people drive in the meantime ?

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm not making that argument since demand exceeds battery supply, for now at least. It would be a nice problem to have !

I'm pointing out that a subsidized PHEV might have better pocket attraction (be cheaper) than a subsidized EV and offer 90% of the decarbonization, today.

E.g., if carbon taxation added $6,000 to the lifetime costs of an ICE, $600 to a PHEV and $0 to an EV, and a $6,000 rebate was offered on EVs, a $6,000 rebate on PHEVs and a $0 rebate on ICE cars, what would people buy who currently look to spend $20k on a car ? My thoughts are to a large extent motivated by my ownership of an 8.8 kWh Prius Prime PHEV that was 27k USD before tax credits.

Look at the sales numbers, the Model S still outsells the Prius Prime despite costing 2.5x the price. I'm pretty sure when the Model 3 is out, it'll handily outsell the Prime despite costing more money (even after subsidies).

I think the PHEV was designed to get through the transition period when affordable long range EVs were not available. But I think the launch of the Model 3 will mark the end of that era. And hopefully that gets other automakers to follow and make serious EVs (including the necessary investment into the infrastructure). To bring it back on topic, the early sales of the Bolt seems to indicate it's not quite there yet.

 

[SageBrush]

Look at the sales numbers, the Model S still outsells the Prius Prime despite costing 2.5x the price. I'm pretty sure when the Model 3 is out, it'll handily outsell the Prime despite costing more money (even after subsidies).

Certainly true today, but the Tesla is not selling at all to the $20k USD segment and I doubt it ever will. The Prime has a chance, in the right soical and regulatory environment. If I am right, I'll see it in Europe first.

 

[McRat]

Certainly true today, but the Tesla is not selling at all to the $20k USD segment and I doubt it ever will. The Prime has a chance, in the right soical and regulatory environment. If I am right, I'll see it in Europe first.

The Prime is everything that is bad about Government Mandates. It is not significantly more efficient or greener than the base Prius in the real world. But it gets all the perks of a BEV. HOV access, CAFE/Carbon credits, Fed Bux, State Bux. But it only offers 20th century performance and very little EV range.

You would almost believe Toyota was in bed with Sacramento. But if that was the case, then Sacramento would be helping Toyota with their utterly pointless Mirai project. Wait... The head of CARB drives one.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Certainly true today, but the Tesla is not selling at all to the $20k USD segment and I doubt it ever will. The Prime has a chance, in the right soical and regulatory environment. If I am right, I'll see it in Europe first.

Why does $20k segment matter if the $30k segment handily outsells it? We are comparing volume. To use an extreme example, the iMIEV is squarely in the $20k segment (under it after subsidies), but no one wants to buy one.

For whatever reason, the PHEV just doesn't seem to have the same attraction as a long range EV. I don't think scaling down the price will change that (keep in mind EV prices also will go down).

 

[SageBrush]

Why does $20k segment matter if the $30k segment handily outsells it?

From the POV of Tesla -- sure.
I was talking about the $20k market per se, which is a huge swath of the world car market that is currently dominated by high emissions ICE cars that we need to to convert soon to much lower emissions. How do you see that happening ?

 

[stopcrazypp]

From the POV of Tesla -- sure.
I was talking about the $20k market per se, which is a huge swath of the world car market that is currently dominated by high emissions ICE cars that we need to to convert soon to much lower emissions. How do you see that happening ?

That will be handled by other automakers (like Nissan with Leaf 2). Tesla will first set the example in the $30k market.

The market price of new cars will also creep up with inflation, and the $30k cars will also be going into the used car market.

 

[Zythryn]

From the POV of Tesla -- sure.
I was talking about the $20k market per se, which is a huge swath of the world car market that is currently dominated by high emissions ICE cars that we need to to convert soon to much lower emissions. How do you see that happening ?

Interesting supposition.
Do you have any references? I would think the more costly, low end performance, trucks, etc would bring the $30k vehicles to a lower mpg than the $20k economy cars.
But I have no evidence one way or the other.

 

[SageBrush]

like Nissan with Leaf 2

I'll be quite surprised if the LEAF 2 sells for less than $30k, and it doesn't really fit the bill as a long distance car.

And that is really my point, that EVs are still not on the horizon of the $20k market, even with subsidy. PHEVs can be, in fact are, today.
Nothing is going to happen while AGW denialist bozos are in charge, but the right regulatory environment that sets ~ neutral costs through carbon taxation and tax credits for *EVs can change things quickly by EVs who want and can afford them and PHEVs for the mainstream.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'll be quite surprised if the LEAF 2 sells for less than $30k, and it doesn't really fit the bill as a long distance car.

And that is really my point, that EVs are still not on the horizon of the $20k market, even with subsidy. PHEVs can be, in fact are, today.
Nothing is going to happen while AGW denialist bozos are in charge, but the right regulatory environment that sets ~ neutral costs through carbon taxation and tax credits for *EVs can change things quickly by EVs who want and can afford them and PHEVs for the mainstream.

Leaf 2 maybe not, but I suspect Leaf 3 will even if Leaf 2 doesn't get there yet. The Leaf is Nissan's economy EV line, so with battery improvements it'll eventually go down to ~$20k mark (like the current Leaf is with subsidies).

The scenario I am seeing is the $30k EVs (after subsidy) will outpace the $20k PHEVs in the near term, and then by the time when the $20k EVs come out, the PHEVs will become relatively irrelevant. In the pathway to transitioning away from pure ICE, what matters is volume, not the price.

 

[SageBrush]

The scenario I am seeing is the $30k EVs (after subsidy) will outpace the $20k PHEVs in the near term, and then by the time when the $20k EVs come out, the PHEVs will become relatively irrelevant. In the pathway to transitioning away from pure ICE, what matters is volume, not the price.

This is a scenario we really need to avoid, because it implies ICE ownership until those $20k long distance EVs are available.

 

[mmd]

Both estimates appear to point towards 150 full-fledged Gigafactories to convert the world transport to eV only. That sounds like 50 years of building at a minimum but more likely 100. In the meantime ICE are running around at around 20 mpg, combusting around 600 gallons of petrol a year, at least in the US. So I think of these approximate numbers:

50 kWh EV: 0 gallons a year
10 kWh PHEV: 50 Gallons a year
HV: 250 Gallons a year
ICE: 500 Gallons a year

Every year that an ICE is on the road waiting for conversion to EV could have been 10 years for a PHEV.
That is a a lot of time gained while awaiting the world-wide GF expansion.

Now, this is ideal and presumes a battery demand that exceeds supply for *EV but I don't know why people dismiss or disagree with this outline.

Yes, very correct. 50 kwh EV is on the low side, leaving lot of range anxiety. Also, EV drive is not zero carbon. You will need to consider the grid mix. Argument that "I installed solar" doesn't hold. The solar could have reduced the non-solar grid production if not used up by the EV. So, here is a more complete picture. Considering compact cars for simplicity. All yearly numbers. Assuming ~12k miles/year.

1. 60 kWh EV: 0 gallons gas + 3 MWh of grid mix electricity
2. 10 kWh battery PHEV: 50 Gallons a year + 2.7 MWh of grid mix elelctricity
3. 1.5 KWH battery Hybrid: 250 Gallons a year + 0 electricity
4. 0 KWH battery ICE: 500 Gallons a year + 0 electricity

3 & 4 don't need any charging infra and don't increase electricity demand.
2,3 & 4 don't have range anxiety as people know for EVs.

From a battery efficiency perspective,
60 KWH = 1 Bolt like EV = 6 10kwh PHEV = 40 Hybrids

If you don't believe battery capacity is a limitation, see DiCaprio's documentary. Elon himself says we need 100 GF.
But whole 100 mil cars sold today could be hybridized with just 150-250 Gwh of batteries a year. No need to wait 100 years till we reach 100 GF capacity.

 

[mmd]

If a company can make money by making batteries, they will. Like drilling for oil, it will not take them long to ramp if the rewards are high enough.

If you are not seeing enough battery production today, you will see the prices of EVs climb.

In a way, a free market would automatically reward the hybrids and plug-in hybrids, if battery cost/supply becomes a critical factor.
A look at markets without big incentives only for BEVs suggests this to be the case.
Even in US, we see much less incentives to move the PHEVs and hybrids compared to EVs.

 

[stopcrazypp]

From a battery efficiency perspective,
60 KWH = 1 Bolt like EV = 6 10kwh PHEV = 40 Hybrids

If you don't believe battery capacity is a limitation, see DiCaprio's documentary. Elon himself says we need 100 GF.
But whole 100 mil cars sold today could be hybridized with just 150-250 Gwh of batteries a year. No need to wait 100 years till we reach 100 GF capacity.

Lol. Exactly the John Petersen argument. Let me just straight tell you that you can't make six 10 kWh PHEV packs from the materials/cost of one 60kWh pack, nor can you make 40 Hybrid packs from the same 60kWh pack.

That assumption completely ignores the power requirements of PHEVs/hybrids, and the cycling requirements. The PHEVs and hybrids need more power optimized chemistries (which tend to be worse in terms of kWh for the same material), and proportionally shallower cycles so that the batteries can last through their warranty period (since they get proportionally less miles per cycle).

A good proxy to material is weight (parentheses is relative scale to Bolt as reference).
Bolt 60 kWh (1): 960 lbs (1)
Volt 18.4 kWh (3.26): 405 lbs (2.37)
Malibu Hybrid Li-ion 1.5 kWh (40): 95 lbs (10.1)
Prius Prime 8.8 kWh (6.82): 265 lbs (3.62)
Prius Hybrid Nimh 1 kWh (60): 89 lbs (10.8)
Prius Hybrid Li-ion 0.75 kWh (80): 54 lbs (17.8)
Drive Unit and Battery at the Heart of Chevrolet Bolt EV
Chevrolet Pressroom - United States - Volt
2016 Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid Tech Dive: Voltec 2.0 - Motor Trend
https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/ebrochure
Why Toyota offers 2 battery choices in next Prius
Toyota Uses Smaller Li-ion, NiMH Batteries for New Prius (1)

As you can see, for a Bolt equivalent, you can build roughly 2-4 PHEVs, roughly 10-20 hybrids (or 0 depending on how you count Nimh, as that does not conflict with lithium-ion demand).

The problem isn't that we can't build the batteries fast enough, it's that there is not enough demand. Do you seriously think the PHEVs and hybrids are supply limited right now due to batteries? I don't think the sales data reflects that.

Some of the initially launched EVs might have short term supply issues (the Bolt seems to be past that now though), but that is a different matter (short term).

 

[stopcrazypp]

This is a scenario we really need to avoid, because it implies ICE ownership until those $20k long distance EVs are available.

Not really, like me, those people considering a $20k PHEV might stretch for a $27k EV instead (or a used EV for less). Then for the next new car, maybe it'll be a $20k EV purchase.

 

[mmd]

Lol. Exactly the John Petersen argument. Let me just straight tell you that you can't make six 10 kWh PHEV packs from the materials/cost of one 60kWh pack, nor can you make 40 Hybrid packs from the same 60kWh pack.

That assumption completely ignores the power requirements of PHEVs/hybrids, and the cycling requirements. The PHEVs and hybrids need more power optimized chemistries (which tend to be worse in terms of kWh for the same material), and proportionally shallower cycles so that the batteries can last through their warranty period (since they get proportionally less miles per cycle).

A good proxy to material is weight (parentheses is relative scale to Bolt as reference).
Bolt 60 kWh (1): 960 lbs (1)
Volt 18.4 kWh (3.26): 405 lbs (2.37)
Prius Prime 8.8 kWh (6.82): 265 lbs (3.62)
Prius Hybrid Nimh 1kWh (60): 89 lbs (10.8)
Prius Hybrid Li-ion 0.75kWh (80): 54 lbs (17.8)

As you can see, for a Bolt equivalent, you can build roughly 2-4 PHEVs, roughly 10-20 hybrids (or zero depending on how you count Nimh, as that does not conflict with lithium-ion demand).

The problem isn't that we can't build the battery fast enough, it's that there is not enough demand. Do you seriously think the PHEVs and hybrids are supply limited right now due to batteries?

Some of the initially launched EVs might have short term supply issues (the Bolt seems to be past that now though), but that is a different matter (short term).

Well, didn't know someone else argued the same point I will have to check the stuff you wrote, and their meaning. In a smaller battery, ratio of protective casing etc. may be higher compared to active cells. But I admit, the battery chemistry could be different.
Can you cite your links for the weight etc. so we can double check?

But you should note that recent hybrids are also using Lithium Ion based batteries.

2017 Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Features | Hyundai USA

Lifetime Hybrid/Electric Battery Warranty
The high-capacity lithium-ion polymer battery pack is a technological marvel. And supporting this crucial component with Hyundai's exclusive Lifetime Hybrid/Electric Battery Warranty* shows our absolute commitment to earning your confidence.

2018 Camry hybrid also appears to use Li IOn batteries.
Desirable at last | 2018 Toyota Camry, Camry Hybrid First Drive

 

[SageBrush]

Not really, like me,

I'm talking about the people who spend $20k. They by definition are NOT you.

But let's fast forward 12 months or so. Now the Model 3 is $35k and no federal tax credit. There are still a whole lot of you looking for a car. What do you buy ?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Well, didn't know someone else argued the same point I will have to check the stuff you wrote, and their meaning. In a smaller battery, ratio of protective casing etc. may be higher compared to active cells. But I admit, the battery chemistry could be different.
Can you cite your links for the weight etc. so we can double check?

Sources added to original post as per request (also added Malibu hybrid for better completeness). You can do more detailed analysis: for example looking at cell count, how many cell layers per cell, and surface area of the cell layer, to get a better analysis, but I don't have the spare time for that (and that data might not be readily available).

I will say just as one example, the Malibu hybrid is a good one (since the cell source is disclosed). It uses 80 of the Hitachi cells at 80Wh/kg at cell level. Not suitable for EV use given the low energy density (cells alone for 60kWh would weigh 1653 lbs), but great for hybrid use given great power density (5kW/kg).
News Releases : May 19, 2015 : Hitachi Global

From discussion here, Bolt cells are roughly 195-215 Wh/kg.
GM/LG Gigafactory?

But you should note that recent hybrids are also using Lithium Ion based batteries.

2017 Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Features | Hyundai USA


2018 Camry hybrid also appears to use Li IOn batteries.
Desirable at last | 2018 Toyota Camry, Camry Hybrid First Drive

Yes, I know that, I cite the Prius hybrid which has both a lithium and a nimh pack option (depending on trim level).

 

[mhan00]

I had range anxiety in my ICE car today, as it went down to 0.0L on the gauge.

I absolutely got range anxiety at least once a month or so back when I had my Lexus and Pilot. I was one of those idiots who didn't always pay attention to the fuel gauge and would sometimes be speeding along the freeway and look down and see either the fuel gauge light on or the needle right on empty. I'd then panic and sweat the next ten to twenty minutes I'd spend looking for a gas station.

When I got my Leaf, I thought I'd get range anxiety, but after my first week after installing a level 2 EVSE at home, I never did. Waking up every morning with a full charge was a god send for me, even with the limited range of the Leaf. Ironically I get more range anxiety now with my Gen 2 Volt, not because I'm afraid I'll get stuck on the side of the road, but because I don't want to use gas at all, so I'll start babying the car when I get to the bottom quarter of the battery and actively look for public charging.