chimpanzee's big project

[chimpanzee]

Hey chimp - you do realize that lipo batteries without battery management are a lot different than the LiMn used in the Volt with regards to safety and stability? Your posts are FUD.

Again, a lack of Engineering "situational awareness". I have a PhD & have DONE digital & analog design.

"We live in an IMPERFECT WORLD"

"Fault Tolerant Computing"

"You can't STOP IT..only CONTROL IT"
-- female Head of Internet Security, Washington DC
[ Web attacks ]

"There is NO SUCH THING as bug-free software"
-- Y.C. Pan, office-mate to me & Martin Eberhard (way back in '81 U of Illinois/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG (Advanced Automation Research Group)

[ software & even hardware, is designed by IMPERFECT humans. Remember the Stanford Math prof who tracked down why his computer program spit out BAD result? He traced it to a BUG in the hardware fabrication of the Intel CPU chip!! WOW, if that doesn't send a chill down your spine..nothing will ]

OK, now we address the question of this "Battery Management" thing (hardware & software)

You are talking like it is PERFECT, 100% success in various environments (120 deg in Death Valley, 60 below in Urbana/IL..home of U of Illinois where Martin/me/YC Pan were at in 1981). DO YOU REALLY think this hardware/software can pass these various environmental extremes ("extreme duty environment") with 100% success rate??

Heck no.

Mathematical models, Physical models, Computer models..they ALL have "error bars".

Precision (# bits) /Accuracy (how close it is to reality) /Repeatability (probabilistic nature of measurement, etc)

[ the above is taught in Middle School "Introductory to Physical Science" ]

FACT: there is NO WAY..I mean NO WAY, the various pathological conditions (environment, prolonged shock, worn out battery chemistry, etc) could be modeled in Simulations. Not in Durability/Reliability tests (some fake simulation on track, etc).

Only Real World tests (which is KING)

"Real World Knowledge always TRUMPS Book Knowledge"

"I do not know"
-- 1800's math Giant, "Uncertainty is the ruling paradigm"

If that "flexy" Model S chassis finally breaks, say getting high-centered on object (like a metal paper clip when bent cycled repeatedly), IT WILL DESTROY the battery pack & fire might result. TOo complicated to model, just do real world tests.

Your comments NEVER address worst-case pathological scenarios. I go back to my AUto Racing analogy, race-cars WILL BREAK if you push them hard enough. Have you seen F1 & Indycars in accidents, they are pretty fragile (to minimize weight, increase Power/Weight ratio), they seem to distentegrate. It's designed to ABSORB ENERGY, to protect the driver.

I'm sure Model S engineers are real concerned about weight (cutting corners in ridigity/durability), given early generation Battery Technology. Trying to get as much range. It was reported on a Physics blog that the ~3K lb Tesla Roadster had worse handling, than the equivalent gas Lotus Elise (~2300 lbs). The 900 lb battery pack is a real liability (put in rear), leads to over-steer

I defer to another vehicle that was undergoing Real World Durability/Reliability testing..the Space Shuttle:

Space Shuttle Challenger disaster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

One of the commission's most well-known members was theoretical physicist Richard Feynman. During a televised hearing, he famously demonstrated how the O-rings became less resilient and subject to seal failures at ice-cold temperatures by immersing a sample of the material in a glass of ice water. He was so critical of flaws in NASA's "safety culture" that he threatened to remove his name from the report unless it included his personal observations on the reliability of the shuttle, which appeared as Appendix F.[SUP][41][/SUP] In the appendix, he argued that the estimates of reliability offered by NASA management were wildly unrealistic, differing as much as a thousandfold from the estimates of working engineers. "For a successful technology," he concluded, "reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

Recall that Wally Rippel (Tesla engineer hired by Martin from Aerovironment, who worked on GM EV1 prototype along w/Alan Cocconi, who posted Tesla Motors article "Richard Feynman, a curious character") & Alan Cocconi went to Caltech & had Feynman as instructor.

I am saying what R Feynman is saying: "marketing/PR idiots" (similar to Tesla fanboys with NO Engineering background, who read Tesla (or any other mfr for that matter) brochures) are WILDLY UNREALISTIC, as per what I heard from Tesla "propaganda" at last year's Detroit Auto Show. They are "setting themselves up for DISASTER", just like the Space Shuttle. Not listening to the hard-core engineers (like myself, who have ACTUALLY DONE it), who are putting some grounded Reality to the whole situation.

I don't have an Agenda (against Tesla), I absolutely hope they succeed. The eventuality of EV (sooner than later) depends on it. I think Elon Musk's CRAZINESS works to his advantage in "pushing Tesla to success". But, it can also work against him, in pushing the engineers to hard (there ARE limits to EXISTING TECHNOLOGY). WHich is what led to the tragedy: Martin getting pushed out & Wally Rippel (& many others) FIRED..the so-called "stealth bloodbath" (as per Martin's blog)

My agenda is Scientific/Engineering REALITY. As per Feynman, "Nature cannot be Fooled".

Look at the HUGE thread on RCGroups.com & the Failures of LiPo batteries, & the incriminating videos & pics. Any type of "energy density" cell can catch fire, it's a FACT. Firemen call wood "fuel", houses can go up in an instant!

My point is that a relatively new immature Technology like LiPo, LiFe Phosphate, etc simply don't have a Durability/Reliability track-record, to make any sort of valid long-term statements on Validity!

PseudoScience (crackpottery) is all based on Ignorance of STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics), & STEM ignorant public making all sorts of invalid/kook statements. Hate to say it, but most of Tesla Motors Club is just fanboys (like Apple fanboys), they don't argue based on reason, just on Passion (more like fanaticism). THIS will be the enemy of Tesla Motors, just look at the Space Shuttle. They had TWO catastrophic failures (significant delays in the Space Shuttle Program), which laid bare the chronic problems at NASA. I know, since I used to work there (COUGH CHOKE).

BTW, there is an oncoming MAJOR SCANDAL about to hit Caltech JPL NASA, which will basically be an EXTINCTION EVENT. 7 million/yr overbilling by JPL contractor, gone unchecked for god knows how many years.

Tesla is a new company, but they better be "out of the box" in terms of Management & Engineering. During the time about when Tesla almost CLOSED DOWN (down to 9 million in cash, Xmas 2008?), whistleblowers inside company were going Public with damning dysfunctional behavior. Elon Musk even hired a security outfit to track it down (indicates Tesla Motors was dysfunctional on 2 levels: internal dissent & couldn't track it down!). An interesting comment appeared in an article, which I remember to THIS day:

"that Tesla Motors is certainly a funny little company. Not what I consider a smooth running organization"

I happened to talk to Lotus at this last 2011 LA Auto Show, & got an interesting viewpoint (from Lotus insider):

"Tesla was run like a computer company, not like a car company. You can't do shift-control-delete to make software work, you're BUILDING CARS"

I realize Tesla hired a bunch of EXPERIENCED car veterans, that's good. However, I've been sampling some car people (experienced veterans), & it's 100% that Tesla will fail in the Model S

"Experience is a GREAT TEACHER"

They have NO EXPERIENCE in mass manufacturing a car. PERIOD. The Roadster was a systems engineering exercise, all the parts converged to N. Cal, & they assembled it. Look at Fiskar, they seem to be having problems "ramping up" production.

Going back to 2011 LA Auto Show. You can TELL the experience/critical-mass ($$, resources, etc) of the major mfrs, they are GOLIATHS. Tesla is a "David", trying to beat Goliath. They may pull it off, but oddsmakers would be betting against them.

Again, I DO hope they pull off the "David vs Goliath". But, it's an INCREDIBLY competitive business. Little guys get SQUASHED. I mean, opening up dealerships all over the world & trying to compete with other $50K pricepoint luxury sedans. THe name of the game in any business is Customer Service, consumer experience. I guarantee you there will be issues & problems, one mistake (PR disaster, cars w./problems which can't be addressed by scattered dealerships)..GAME OVER. People will abandon ship like a rat in a toilet.

I think Tesla's contribution (Martin's vision) is that of a catalyst, "waking up major Mfrs" that a David could challenge the Goliaths. I went to 2011 LA Auto Show to check out EVs, & that Audi e-tron is pretty killer.

2011 LA Auto Show
[ will be uploading videos soon, hang in there ]

As is that BMW concept hybrid.

Sun Nov 27 [ '11 LA Auto Show ] - a set on Flickr

You can point to my former grad school officemate Martin Eberhard for that!

"It's good to be IDEALISTIC!"
-- Dr Alan Barr, Caltech Computer Science prof

It was Martin Eberhard's IDEALISM, that created all the exciting new EV activity in Automotive!

 

[chimpanzee]

I think you are missing the major distinction between battery cells (Tesla uses many small 18650 laptop cells) and a battery "pack" (which is inclusive of the metal enclosure designed to protect the individual cells from an impact/intrusion). I don't see any issue with using the pack as a stressed member. Just like how most cars today use the passenger cell (akin to the enclosure part of the battery pack) as a stressed member while placing no mechanical stress on the passengers (akin to the individual cells); the same can be done with the battery pack.

The pack is a stressed member in the Roadster too:
http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/technology/battery

The Roadster has been on the market for 4 years, sold over 2000 units, and as vfx says, accumulated 15 million miles of data (the empiricism you are talking about). So far there is no indication that there is any issue with this type of design; I think Tesla has enough data to proceed with the same idea in the Model S.


Same as I was about to say about the chemistry. Plus a home brew BMS/charger can't be compared to one any highway capable BEV for sale today (esp. in a pack that has it's own liquid cooling system!). Also, the issue right now isn't really any danger from overcharging/overheating in normal operation.

The issue with the Volt is that the puncturing of the battery cells and coolant line in a severe accident may lead to fires (although delayed). That points to either a defect/design issue (Leaf didn't have similar issues, although it's important to note the battery is air cooled LiMn, not liquid cooled), or that there needs to be special procedures for handling the car after a severe accident (esp. one that punctures the battery compartment).

I disagree with your flippant remark about R/C electric airplanes as "hobby", home brew chargers. These are NOT home brew, but professionally designed chargers by legit engineering outfits. The LiPo batter packs have sensor leads for each cell, to properly "balance charge" the packs, the chargers support this. Again, I go back to

"we live in an imperfect world"

Some battery packs come shipped as defective, they won't take a "balanced charge". I actually bought a LiPo battery pack, which sat for 3 yrs. It "puffed up", & was in danger of EXPLODING! My house could have "gone up". The Mfr was a major supplier (Korean origins), who mfrs for the Automotive industry!! Just goes to show, how "new" this Technology is, & EVERYONE is learning. "Puffing up" is simple degradation of LiPo batteries, the standard batteries have a shelf-life. That thing is sitting outside in my backyard, I will go & post a picture of it soon.

Electric has REVOLUTIONIZED R/C flying, more so than Automotive! Gas R/C planes are nicknamed "slimers", messy. Again, these vendors have spunoff into DoD/Dept of Defense contractors, a notable one being Aerovironment! (where Alan Cocconi & Wally Rippel used to work). Supplying R/C surveillance aircraft, using the LiPo battery packs charged by legit chargers (not homebrew like you say).

Again, it's Tesla Fanboy syndrome, not properly maintaining PERSPECTIVE:

"+" & "-"

If you don't address minus, that flaw will CREEP into Model S & cause problems! I don't think Tesla has the CRITICAL MASS (customer support in dealerships & even PR) to handle a catastrophic failure. Look at Ford, they are ALWAYS recalling cars. If a major mfr with all the resources CAN have defects in Engineering, what chance does Tesla Motors have? FACT: Problems WILL arise, & how they deal with it is essentially Make/Break for the company

"Life is 20% what happens to you, 80% HOW YOU RESPOND TO IT"
-- a wise man once said

Tesla is completely & totally unprepared to deal with an engineering issue & mass recall. PERIOD. No dealership network, just mobile vans.

To Tesla Fan Boys, try brainstorming on how Tesla or a customer will deal with a Model S engineering "issue", then get back to me. They have scattered dealerships, no way can customers just DRIVE to a dealership, drop it off, get it repaired, then pick it up. They have these roving mobile vans, NO WAY that would address a mass recall, forget it.

THe more I think about this, Tesla was just a "Proof of Concept", NOT a legit automotive start up.

 

[VolkerP]

This is the Tesla enthusiast forum not the Tesla engineer's board.
What we post here will have NO impact on Tesla's battery pack design.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Chimp, you fail to address the very facts that you claim to be seeking: Tesla has about 2,000 BEVs on the road with over 15 million miles of data on the battery performance. I'll grant that those Roadster owners have been running a vast experiment, but now the data is in. So why do you ignore those data in reaching your conclusion that the Model S is just a "proof of concept" vehicle?

 

[dpeilow]

Tesla is completely & totally unprepared to deal with an engineering issue & mass recall. PERIOD. No dealership network, just mobile vans.

Tesla recalls 439 Roadster 2.0 and 2.5 electric cars due to fire hazard -- Engadget

 

[JRP3]

Chimp you are bordering on rambling insanity once again as you did before. Actually you've crossed the border. Keep it in check and stay on topic.

 

[ckessel]

I have a PhD & have DONE digital & analog design.

So, you don't believe the degree of a very public figure like Elon has been vetted, but we're supposed to believe you have a degree?

This has descended into birther levels of crazy.

 

[AnOutsider]

Chimp you are bordering on rambling insanity once again as you did before. Actually you've crossed the border. Keep it in check and stay on topic.

Sounds like he has a personal beef with Tesla, especially with all the "Martin and I are chums" talk. Such an obvious bias works against credibility as you can't be seen as objective chimp.

 

[vfx]

... During the time about when Tesla almost CLOSED DOWN (down to 9 million in cash, Xmas 2008?), whistleblowers inside company were going Public with damning dysfunctional behavior. Elon Musk even hired a security outfit to track it down (indicates Tesla Motors was dysfunctional on 2 levels: internal dissent & couldn't track it down!). An interesting comment appeared in an article, which I remember to THIS day:

Do you have a link to this article? It's old news but might have interesting historical context.

 

[qwk]

Chimp must have got a job with exxon. He just ignores facts, and posts irrelevant nonsense. If you do indeed have a phd in anything, I hate to say it, but you wasted your money.

 

[dpeilow]

I personally called U of Penn/Physics prof..NEVER CALLED BACK! Kinda suspect!

You don't say.

 

[Doug_G]

You don't say.

I suspect sarcasm is lost on him.

Let's be explicit: no prof is ever going to return that call. No interest in stepping into it. Highly unlikely to have open access to student records. 'Nuff said.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Let's be explicit: no prof is ever going to return that call. No interest in stepping into it. Highly unlikely to have open access to student records. 'Nuff said.

I'm surprised chimp wouldn't know this, given he claims he's a PhD. From my experience as a undergraduate and also working with universities on other projects, student privacy is a huge deal in the US. Even parents have to be given explicit permission in order to access student records, much less unknown third parties.

 

[chimpanzee]

Regarding the low groan at highway speeds:

I have a P85 loaner right now as mine is in for the 12,500 mile service. The car only has about 1,500 miles on it, so must be a fairly recent VIN (forgot to check)--but I heard this groan start around 55mph (faint) and grow in pitch and volume toward 70+mph....so it seems like it may not just be very early VINs. I'll mention it to the service center when they drop my car back off.

P85 = fun.

"Low Groan"

I've read thru the various complaints about this noise. An owner which had the problem addressed with "replacement", still hears it. This is clearly a chronic-bug in the car (worthy of recall), not a mfr QA (Quality Assurance) issue.

The people shelling out $55k + (nearing $100K), will find this unnacceptable. This & other chronic issues:

- software bugs galore
car won't start, hood/door opening at random, etc

- panorama sun-roof window frame breaking
clearly a design+mfr issue

- form-and-fit issues
driver side passenger door gap, front hood gap (right front)


means that Model S is a "poser luxury car". Rule #1 -- Never buy Version 1 of anything. To put out a feature-laden luxury sedan as your FIRST attempt, is going to have the above type of

"rookie problems"

Luxury sedans by Merceds/BMW/Acura, etc, all have EXPERIENCE on their side. It's like spacecraft, initial attempts will have mistakes/failures. Look at the American Space Program (NASA), frought with initial failures. SpaceX (where Elon Musk is also CEO), has its problems..the engine failures (all missions)

"Experience is a Great Teacher"

Tesla Motors & SpaceX are both approaching the Market in a flawed manner:

"Too Much, Too Fast"

They should be using a more Conservative progressive approach

"Rome wasn't built overnight"

They are both approaching it with a "hyper aggressive approach", which violates a long known maxim in Aviation:

"There are Old Pilots, there are Bold Pilots, but there no Old Bold Pilots"

Many famous aggresive fighter pilots never survived their respective conflicts:

1) Manfred von Richtofen (aka "Red Baron")
tried an ill-advised pursuit of enemy aircraft over enemy territory, got nailed

2) Thomas McGuire (P-38 Lightning, Pacific Theatre WWII)
over-stressed his P-38, broke apart, DNF (Did not Finish). His P-38 counterpart Dick Bong survived the war (over 40 kills), but was killed in Air Force test accident post WWII

Many other top fighter pilots were shot-down (e.g. Frances Gabreski, WWII EUropean Theater), but survived.

Injury/Death "goes with the territory", Tesla Motors & SpaceX is no exception.

These nagging problems are symptomatic of a wild/uncontrolled M.O. (Modus Operanda), that will eventually catch up with them. These problems don't seem to be addressed in Customer Service ("low groan" problem), ANNOYING as heck for a high-end buyer at highway speeds. These high-end clientele will NOT buy such a problem riddled car, word will get around. A bad-recall could very likely "sink" the Model S, & thus Tesla Motors. SpaceX will suffer the same fate, if this nagging engine issue keeps popping up

"It's all about PREPARATION"
-- Motorsports saying

Tesla Motors & SpaceX are both "rookie" companies trying to attack an incredibly DIFFICULT problem. Aviation/Space & Mass Production Cars (even more difficult than the one-off type of Space missions)

The GLARING THING about Tesla Motors, is lack of R&D (Applied Research) program

1) Collaborative Academic/Industrial R&D Consortium/Infrastructure
similar to Fraunhofer Inst (German program), designed to "bridge the gap" between Academia ("Book Knowledge") & Industry ("Real World Knowledge"). This would have helped back in 2007, when Tesla Roadster had production delays, the most significant being the multi-speed gearbox breaking during Durability/Reliability testing. This comes down to a R&D problem, which takes Time & Talent. You need PhD level researchers to take the TIME, to research advanced materials (huge stress loads present by instantaneous torque-curve electric-motor). There was also a "timing issue", according to Vice President of Xtrac (Masters in Mechanical Engineering, who I know) -- Xtrac has extensive Partnership program in Motorsports (Indycar, Offroad, etc). They actually SOLVED the gearbox breakage issue (that plagued Tesla Roadster) with a Development Partner in xxx Racing, gearbox issue are commonplace in Motorsports.

Another R&D program that needs to be addressed is Battery Technology. Tesla just can't sit around, & wait for new Battery Technology to "seep in" via the Infrastructure. They need to have a Pro-active partnership with a University (A123 Batteries came out of an MIT sourced battery technology), or the above Academic/Industrial consortium/infrastrucutre. My model of Tesla Motors is a "toy company", who is attacking a big problem -- Mass Production of Cars. They're missing what GEneral Motors has -- General Motors Research, & what Ford has (similar named Research facility). I've met (& know) the principals who run them, the GM guy is a Harvard PhD. I mentioned "Time" in attacking R&D problems, he came back with

"Talent" [ PhD level researchers ]

LUCRATIVE Silicon Valley Industry came about as convergence of TWO factors:

a) invention of Transistor (Nobel Prize in Physics, Bardeen/Brattain/Shockley)
SHockley started the whole Silicon Valley startup thing, which led to Fairchild Semidonductor (many spinoffs), then Intel. Martin Eberhard & I are both U of Illinois Electrical Eng grads (Masters & PhD), guess who was on Electrical Eng & Physics faculty -- John Bardeen! His son Bill Bardeen went to my high-school (University High on U of Illinois campus), which produced 3 Nobelists (Economics..Dr James Tobin, Physics..Dr Phillip Anderson, Medicine..Dr Hamilton Smith). Dr Craig Venter (of Biotech fame..Celera startup, who co-sequenced Human Genome), who owns a Roadster & Model S, is leading the way with his Synthetic Genomics, 400 million $$ deal with Exxon Mobil to synthesize hydrocarbon fuel from (genetically modified) Algae. His R&D Institute JCVI (J Craig Venter Institute) hired a Nobelist top-gun..Dr Hamilton Smith (!!), that made breakthrough

"1st organism designed by computer"

You can see my high-school

[ where Dr Hamilton Smith was "seeded", across street from U of Illinois Computer Science Dept..which produced the 3 co-founders of Youtube, who were tied into Paypal, which Elon Musk made part of his Internet fortune ]

from Coordinated Science Lab 2nd floor (where Martin & I worked at AARG/Advanced Automation Research Group). Here you have an interesting link, tying in Elon Musk & Martin Eberhard to U of Illinois "21st Century Technology based Industrialist". The value of Academic R&D, to US Economy (as per Dr Larry Summers, PhD Economics/Harvard, former Harvard President & Clinton/Obama cabinet member) is IMMEASURABLE

b) NASA Manned Space Program (Man on the Moon)
pressure to miniaturize electronics => Integrated Circuit

So, Academic R&D is VITAL to any "Future Technology" startups like SpaceX & Tesla Motors. HUGE gap in Tesla Motors portfolio, without it..THEY'RE TOAST.


2) Motorsports
traditionally, EVERY major AUto Mfr (incl American) have had extensive Motorsports involvement as a "Real World" test-bed, Development Partners in NASCAR & Indycar, etc You can do $20K miles of testing (say at General Motors Test Track facility), in ONE Indycar or NASCAR race. These EDE (Extreme Duty Environment) sectors have produced MANY innovations in Mass Consumer cars -- rear-view mirror (Indycar), disc brakes, helmets & restraint systems, etc. They have TWO areas of interest -- Performance & Safety


Academic/Industrial R&D Consortium & Motorsports, a key "wildcard" (to lessen risky game of Poker they're playing) in a winning poker-hand for Tesla Motors. They are MISSING this "wild-card"..

Whoah.


Good classic Aviation Book "Fate is the Hunter"

http://www.amazon.com/FATE-THE-HUNTER-Ernest-Gann/dp/0671636030

Fate is "hunting" Tesla MOtors & SpaceX. I can feel it "catching up with them" It's all about

"Risk Management"

They are playing a DANGEROUS game of poker, risking "everything" on a weak hand (missing a key card -- R&D & Motorsports). Call it a "wild card" that reduces risk-factor.

 

[JRP3]

Who let the chimp out of his cage?

 

[JRP3]

Chimp's been known to overreact a tad.

 

[chimpanzee]

Who let the chimp out of his cage?

That "chimp" is Ham, the 1st American primate in Outer Space.

http://www.spacechimps.com/theirstory.html

The Space Program will likely be recognized as one of the most important and memorable accomplishments of the 20th Century. Many believe that when historians look back, this period will be remembered as the time when man first reached the stars and expanded the world beyond the confines of earth. Most remember Alan Shepard, John Glenn, and Gus Grissom. But few know many of the details of the early steps taken to make their historic missions more than just a dream. Before man ever rode the space ocean, there were chimps. And even before chimps there were other primates, mice, fruit flies, and other assorted creatures. But that's a whole other story for another day. These early pioneers may not be remembered like their human counterparts, but their contributions paved the path to the stars and made manned space exploration a reality. What follows is their long journey. What follows is some long overdue recognition to some American heroes. What follows is the story of man's closest relative's contributions to the study of space, their fate, and a story that doesn't have an easy, happy, Hollywood ending. This is the story of the space chimps and their incredible journey. This story has been played with on television and the big screen. But fiction can't convey the incredible reality of this story. It is not just about a couple of chimps who were sent up in a rocket. No, this is a story about Africa, New Mexico, the Cold War, Florida, President Kennedy, the Mercury Astronauts, the space program, and more. This is the beginning of what President Kennedy called the "...most hazardous and dangerous and greatest adventure on which man has ever embarked." Well, chimps went first and this is their story. This is One Small Step:The Story of the Space Chimps.

...

Chapter Three: One Small Step

The stage was now set for the space program to move forward with their goal of putting a man in space. Before a man would be permitted to fly, NASA decided a chimp would ride the space ocean. HAM, which stands for Holloman AeroMedical, a 37 pound 3-year old chimpanzee from Cameroon was selected to fly a Mercury-Redstone in a sub-orbital flight. HAM was said to be a smart, loveable chimp with a good temperament. His positive personality is said to be one of the main reasons he was chosen for flight. You can note that in most pictures his arms are not bound.

Elon Musk should take above "even temperament" to heart, it was the M.O. of Martin Eberhard, whose outstanding Public Communication skills attracted people to Tesla Motors. His engineering skills are equally good


Elon Musk should take NASA's conservative approach to Space to heart. Even Russia put Laika (dog) into Outer Space, before putting Humans into Space.

Apollo 11 manned landing, was preceded by flights which ALMOST landed on the Moon, exercising the LEM (Lunar Excursion Moduel) detaching from Command Module. They were using

"Progressive Curve" learning approach

test, re-test, more test. NASA understands "Learning Curve", as opposed to

"everything at Once"

like the ill-fated Tesla Roadster -- 2007 production delays due to

"wanting EVERYTHINNG in Version 1.0"

[ Elon Musk wanted LED lights, electric doors, COMPLETE re-design of chassis..then there was the biggest snafu -- breaking of multi-speed gearbox under long-term Durability/Reliability testing. Multiple vendors were contracted to do the never-been-done-before task, which of course couldn't be done INSTANTANEOUSLY (throwing $$ at the problem). Takes Time (design, build, testing, failure..repeat until success) & Talent (high-end STEM, Science Technology Engineering Mathematics, types like PhDs, Masters in Materials Science, Engineering, Chemistry, Physics ]

Elon Musk has this FATAL FLAW (remember, apparently he has no legitimate Engineering or Physics degree..as per M. Eberhard's lawsuit. He is hosting that POTUS (Physics of the Universe Summit) in conjunction with Caltech Physics, claiming to be a Physicist. Typical symptom of crackpot wannabee poser, see Carl Sagan's list of red-flags for crackpots. Plus, that Edge thing (media sponsored "poser Conference", like that TED..Technology Entertainment Design. TED recently got NAILED for hosting CRACKPOTS.

EM thinks he can

"throw $$ at the problem, & get instantaneous results"

Like I previously said

"Time & Talent" [ Talent was mentioned by General Motors Research head, Harvard PhD, who I talked to at 2012 CES (Consumer Electronics Show) ]

which comes about, with the help of Applied R&D (Collaborative/Cooperative Academia/Industrial Consortium & Motorsports). You need PARTNERS (PhDs, & real-life racers..JPR3 you're a real-world type), to help out. Especially, with an oft-ignored aspect of Technology -- Durability/Reliability testing. Sure, anyone can put together a "one-off" (Engineering Prototype), & get it going. The tough-part, is

Mass production, long-term testing (iron out bugs), Customer Service (addressing issues..THEY WILL HAPPEN, just part of the game)

Already, we are seeing bugs (galore..) & delays in Customer Service. How the HECK does a startup Auto company address service issues, WITHOUT a wide-spread dealer network? They are going to be OVERWHELMED. Upset customers, word spreads, customer-experience suffers, sales decline. Meanwhile, the "sharks" (critical mass Auto Mfrs, with deep pockets), will have caught up. Put a lower-pricepoint competitive product on the Market, Tesla sales will drop..GAME OVER. The latter is all a predictable long-term scenario, it's true in many sectors. Take Apple's iPhone which revolutionized smartphone sector. Google Android has dominant market-share, & will win

"Quantity, has a certain QUALITY about it"
-- Dr XXX, US Army War College

[ talking about Russian T-34 medium tank, sheer numbers wiping out the superior German Tiger tank..best open-field tank in WWII (superior 88mm gun, heavily armored). Also, how the Russian AK-47 (Avtomat Kalashnikov) TOOK OVER from the innovator (German STG44, automatic assault gun), via sheer numbers ]

It's a well known evolutionary tactic that is repeated in Business environment --"copy the innovator, introduce imitation at lower price-point, envelop them with sheer numbers"

I don't see the Model S a successful long-term product, it will simply

"awaken the Sleeping Giant(s)..Goliaths"

which will subsume the "David". David can beat Goliath in a one-off, but long-term..Goliath WINS.

I just saw a thing over SoCalMTB:

Stand up for your rights...in a way that won't get you killed. In sailing, there's something known as the "Law of Gross Tonnage" - any guess what that means?

Be aware of your surroundings at all times. Don't blast Dethklok on the earbuds, or you will become a statistic. Photo the offenders if possible, or at least get the lic#/description, and report the incident.

about confrontations between bikers & (heavier) vehicles.

I give Elon Musk credit for his

VIsion, Passion, Sheer Bravado ("Balls of STeel", as per his ex-wife Justine), Aggressiveness

but, "Law of Critical Mass" wins..all-the-time.

"I fought the Law [ NASCAR, the 600b gorilla ]..AND THE LAW WON"
-- ESPN documentary, NASCAR pioneer Tim Flock (winning-nest driver)

Tesla Motors is making a heroic effort, but just delaying the INEVITABLE..envelopment by the 600 lb Gorilla. The "circling sharks" of big-mass Auto Mfrs, circling the wagon.

Model X..with gull-wing doors? Model S with AWD just announced? Now, this Hyper Loop thing?

Elon is just "way over the Top", getting his hands into TOO MANY things

"Lack of Focus, is #1 cause of business-failure"
-- CISCO affiliate, personal communication

Elon has the "Curse of Genius" affliction. Success breeds more ego, which tries even harder/faster & more sectors. Implosion imminent.

Ego & Success are a dangerous combination.

Some "moderation" is required, needs to "tone it down"

"Discretion is better part of Valor"
-- Cool it


"Vince Lombardi [ Football great ] was Smart & Tough. Parcells the same way."
-- ESPN Sports Century, "Bill Parcells", 2-time Super Bowl winning coach

"Good Players play, TOUGH PLAYERS win championships"
-- Tom Izzo, Michigan State basketball coach, NCAA champ

Michigan State & Parcells teams (NY Giants, et al), ALL have "critical mass" Infrastructure, well-developed Tier 1 teams. You rarely see new franchise teams competing for Championships, with the Goliaths (NY Yankees, LA Lakers, Duke NCAA basketball, etc). Repeat champs are even harder (even for Tier 1 teams). The latter is the equivalent of a strong Successful Auto Company. Tesla Motors simply doesn't have this Experience or Critical Mass. SOmehwere along the line, they are going to "trip up"..GAME OVER

"If you scratch [ as in Pool ], THE GAME'S OVER"
-- Mitch MacAleer, Hang Gliding aerobatic (world) champion

 

[JRP3]

Chimp's been known to overreact a tad.

As I said......

 

[Doug_G]

Wow, that's quite the rant.

 

[jomo25]

My head hurts.