Model Y production out of Giga Shanghai is set to shut down in early July for minimum 3 days but more likely 2 weeks for production line refit. Unless a back log is sat in the parking lot ready for shipment at end of June I cannot imagine any sailings until Mid July.. source Rob Maurer @ TeslaDaily
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China and Berlin production news
- Thread starter Mikescratch0
- Start date
Pre-planned maintenance to take place 1 - 4 of July. Then production should be higher. Tesla are asking staff to carry out other duties. Maybe driving cars to the dock? If there is a ship waiting there at the end of this month would give an indication
Based on:
- moderator comments above (yes, the moderator can't tell the difference between NEWS ON PRODUCTION SHUTDOWN AFFECTING SHIPPING and DISCUSSION ON PRODUCTION LEVELS; to him it's all the same i.e. not shipping-related, and he has a short fuse; that resulted in
- my post on this exact topic being deleted with no feedback
- my comments on the topic of arbitrary post deletion by the mod resulted in it being moved to the Snippiness thread
- I received a message in which I was threatened with my access to the forum being limited; nobody gets to question the mod's AUTHORITAH!
I fully expect this post to also be removed, in the spirit of fairness. Right, @GeorgeSymonds ?
BTW, I get that being a mod is a thankless effort which involves trawling through hundreds of posts and trying hard to keep threads clean and on-topic. And yes, it can get too much to keep repeating the same warnings. But that doesn't justify summarily deleting posts without providing any feedback on the reasons for deletion, or getting aggressive when questioned on it.
As such, if you intend to continue this policy of arbitrary deletion / removal with no recourse for the forum contributors, you should probably go ahead ban my access to the thread. I will, obviously, stop my financial support of the site and contact the admin on this matter.
Moderator comment: I'll not delete this, surfice to say the poster didn't like the posts being removed or being advised to start a new thread on the topic (which I have done for them). I can only assume they've completely missed all the messages about keeping thie shipping thread to shipping insight. Most reasonable people just accept that and don't get upset. It's all part of life for the unpaid moderators.
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One more time, for the people in the back: news on extensive production shutdowns at the Shanghai GigaFactory, whether planned or not, absolutely have an impact on the number of vehicles shipped to Europe, and therefore on the number of RORO ships leaving Shanghai. Pretending that's not the case, or that the news of such shutdowns will not be repeatedly posted on this thread, is shortsighted (to be nice about it).
Jason71
Well-Known Member
Leaving before the fight starts?... blimey ... the China production Vs Shipping discussion is a bit tense... I think I'll get my coat before the fisticuffs start ...
I am not sure which part of Scotland you are from but I guess we just established its not Glasgow then.
Ok I’ll admit it … born in (looks both ways to check the coast is clear) England!
Zilla91
Active Member
I ordered a MYLR yesterday morning and the EDD was December - February but by the end of the day it jumped to September 20 - November 4 so it doesn’t look like this shut down will delay anything
I don't think its too big a stretch of the imagination for Tesla to have a rough allocation per quarter for each market that takes into account any planned volume changes. I suspect many dates got pushed back because of a combination of covid closures and the failuire to make these changes when planned earlier in the year. So unless the upgrades don't go ahead or are unsuccessful, you'd expect their production volumes to be more or less as expected going forward and any dates not unreasonable, or slightly pessimistic as before.
What impacts deliveries are unexpected changes, not the planned ones like this. But try telling some people that.
Roughly the first half of July will see no production at Giga Shanghai, due to production line upgrades for both the Model Y and the Model 3.
I'm sure there will be no effect on the number of cars shipped to Europe in July, or the number and timing of ships carrying those cars.
I'm sure there will be no effect on the number of cars shipped to Europe in July, or the number and timing of ships carrying those cars.
So yeah, unfortunately it would seem that the 4-day closure reported was incomplete. It is indeed 4 day total interruption factory-wide - but then two weeks with no MYs (only 3s) - then two weeks with no 3s .....Roughly the first half of July will see no production at Giga Shanghai, due to production line upgrades for both the Model Y and the Model 3.
I'm sure there will be no effect on the number of cars shipped to Europe in July, or the number and timing of ships carrying those cars.
I begin to understand while there are no EDDs planned before the end of August now...
Individual production lines get shut down all the time for various reasons, and the shutdown of the whole factory hasn’t changed.
The changes will add ~30% more capacity at the loss of 2 weeks of the 13 in the quarter on each line, call it 15%, so they’re still up 15% over the quarter compared to historic run rates. Things rarely work out to plan but barring unforeseen issues they could still possibly deliver the best production numbers in China in quarter. As said in earlier post, they’ll have a view on expected volumes through all this and be planning and reacting accordingly,
As for no August EDD, usual Tesla production cycles would normally result in limited August numbers compared to Sept, plus UK reg updates in Sept result in more wanting to defer by the week or so to get a 72 plate. Last year may not be the best example due to Covid but tesla delivered 500 or so cars in August compared to 7k in Sept.
TL;DR it’s a non issue, and don’t start looking for boats leaving in July like you wouldn’t in any other year.
Isn't the M3 export run scheduled for early in the quarter (i.e. July)? Last time they shut down, Australia missed out on any deliveries because the shut down limited output and they then moved straight onto the planned domestic production with the date apparently being the trigger to switch (a date trigger makes sense from likely scheduled dates with trucking companies etc).
From that experience, is it possible that this won't be a non-issue if Europe and Australia production happens to fall on the line shut down?
Not trying to be argumentative, trying to work out delays.
I.e. Production may well increase but that doesn't mean export deliveries aren't pushed into Q4.
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You’re right that the first half of a quarter is usually for long distance export but we’re no insider knowledge on their exact allocations, what they’re doing with current production etc.. We’ve also had no MYPs yet from Germany, we’ve had no new MS from Fremont, this is just second guessing. We could spend hours debating the minute details of what’s happening at each location based on very little actual information.
My point is there’s potential for a lot of production in quarter, these changes have been planned months in advance and were delayed due to Covid, the individual production lines being closed was almost certainly always part of the plans, the only thing that seems new is people have suddenly realised the factory halting production for a few days was only part of the plan. If you have an EDD I don’t see anything here that’s going to change it, EDDs have been swinging around for weeks but seem to have stabilised recently from what I’ve been reading.
I guess we don’t know for sure, time will tell, but news like this just makes people worry needlessly. And if your car does get bumped, it won’t be the first time and could be due to a host of other reasons. Berlin ramp hasn’t been as fast as hoped. MYP was never expected to come from China, if I was Tesla I’d maybe bump a MY LR owners to make and ship higher margin MYP to customers who have been waiting a year to address a slow Berlin. There are many levers that need to be pushed and pulled to balance global production.
We've had EDDs push out whole quarters in Australia at the last second. We don't have the wavering you guys have for our EDDs. It's set as a static block (was 14-20 weeks) and then after they switched to domestic, blew out to Aug - Nov. I don't think EDDs are a reliable metric whatsoever, only VIN.
Would be nice if Tesla just announced what was actually happening. I think there's a high likelihood exports could be blown out a quarter. Whether that be for Y or 3. And people should know.
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