China / Taiwan discussion

[Cosmacelf]

Not sure I follow. Russia has lost a tremendous amount-lives, expensive military equipment, money spent supporting a war, international prestige, led to the expansion of NATO, various sanctions costing them billions just as a start. Yet that did nothing to deter their leadership. And the CCP leadership is at least as blinded to other cultures and as arrogant concerning their position of superiority as Russia's leaders. They could attack the Republic of China at any time. But invasion is unlikely given their lack of amphibious transport capability.

The number one thing Chinese leaders fear is their own population. China has a habit of latching onto the next new movement and violently overthrowing their leaders. It’s why modern Chinese leaders brutally suppresses anything that might be ideological against them and why they work so hard on their social credit system. The question is does Xi think he has his country cowed enough to launch a major war? Bear in mind that China imports both energy and food. And it is still a predominantly export economy. Frankly, I think the biggest deterrent has been watching the world impose meaningful sanctions against Russia. If those same sanctions were imposed on China, it wouldn’t be pretty. And the US could easily impose an oil import embargo on China by having a few carriers stationed at key shipping points.

 

[Tommy O]

The number one thing Chinese leaders fear is their own population. China has a habit of latching onto the next new movement and violently overthrowing their leaders.

Smart comment and an accurate depiction of the last 50+ years for China, in my opinion.

China is about to get strip mined over the next 10-30 years. The resource the world will mine will be people.

The 高考 has created a population that’s amenable to modern day cognitive labor (and of course there’s a lot more than this single factor).

In plain words, the Chinese are intelligent as f***. I’m bearish on the Chinese government, bullish on their culture and their people.

The next half century is going to be a wild ride. Hang tight. 老虎

 

[Snerruc]

Highly probable the world fractures in ways we Western Folk aren’t expecting in the near future. I’ve argued in public and in private that Tesla’s presence in China will be overall beneficial.

There may come a time in the future where they need to quickly pull out of China. Not putting a lot of energy into thinking about that, right now. Key Man Risk insurance seems more pressing…

As I wrote before, you really need to read THE WORLD IS ENDING AND THAT IS JUST THE BEGINNING by Peter Zeihan to understand what is happening in the world today.

 

[Tommy O]

As I wrote before, you really need to read THE WORLD IS ENDING AND THAT IS JUST THE BEGINNING by Peter Zeihan to understand what is happening in the world today.

Yes, I’ve read Zeihan. He has very interesting and compelling predictions about the geopolitical future of earth.

 

[spacerfc]

The number one thing Chinese leaders fear is their own population. China has a habit of latching onto the next new movement and violently overthrowing their leaders. It’s why modern Chinese leaders brutally suppresses anything that might be ideological against them and why they work so hard on their social credit system. The question is does Xi think he has his country cowed enough to launch a major war? Bear in mind that China imports both energy and food. And it is still a predominantly export economy. Frankly, I think the biggest deterrent has been watching the world impose meaningful sanctions against Russia. If those same sanctions were imposed on China, it wouldn’t be pretty. And the US could easily impose an oil import embargo on China by having a few carriers stationed at key shipping points.

At the risk of drawing the ire of mods, have you been following Chinese navy build up? They already have a bigger navy (in # of ships) than the US, and they're still expanding it, US observers are shocked that at one Chinese shipyard 5 destroyers are being built at the same time. This doesn't even count Chinese's various ballistic anti-carrier missiles specifically designed to kill US carriers.

10 years, that's when I estimate they'll have enough force to counter the US, that's when there'll be war over Taiwan. As long as Xi is in power this is pretty much inevitable, so I agree with Thekiwi and do hope Tesla be careful when further expanding its Chinese footprint. Note if there is war (or even hostilities without formal declaration of war), Tesla would become a target not just because it's a US company, but also because SpaceX will be heavily involved in any US military actions against China, the Starlink actions in Ukraine is a sign of things to come.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

The number one thing Chinese leaders fear is their own population. China has a habit of latching onto the next new movement and violently overthrowing their leaders. It’s why modern Chinese leaders brutally suppresses anything that might be ideological against them and why they work so hard on their social credit system. The question is does Xi think he has his country cowed enough to launch a major war? Bear in mind that China imports both energy and food. And it is still a predominantly export economy. Frankly, I think the biggest deterrent has been watching the world impose meaningful sanctions against Russia. If those same sanctions were imposed on China, it wouldn’t be pretty. And the US could easily impose an oil import embargo on China by having a few carriers stationed at key shipping points.

Interesting thoughts. IMO CCP leadership has similar motivations for attacking/capturing Taiwan as Russia did with Donbas. They both see it as an accomplishment, one that might be seen as making their country more powerful and cementing a legacy and degree of prestige for the leadership. I don't think the leadership of either nation has significant empathy for their citizens; however, I would agree that Chinese leadership perhaps has more to fear from them. I do think that an assault on Taiwan would bring us into a military response to counter the offensive moves, likely air battles. But I personally doubt that it would devolve to an economic blockade, which is perhaps more provocative and pushes China more "into a corner" than a limited shooting war. Much like the oil embargo of Japan in the late 30s, it might lead to results no one wants.

Lets hope cooler heads prevail and that, as you said, CCP leadership has learned some lessons from the response to Russian aggression.

 

[MC3OZ]

At the risk of drawing the ire of mods, have you been following Chinese navy build up? They already have a bigger navy (in # of ships) than the US, and they're still expanding it, US observers are shocked that at one Chinese shipyard 5 destroyers are being built at the same time. This doesn't even count Chinese's various ballistic anti-carrier missiles specifically designed to kill US carriers.

10 years, that's when I estimate they'll have enough force to counter the US, that's when there'll be war over Taiwan. As long as Xi is in power this is pretty much inevitable, so I agree with Thekiwi and do hope Tesla be careful when further expanding its Chinese footprint. Note if there is war (or even hostilities without formal declaration of war), Tesla would become a target not just because it's a US company, but also because SpaceX will be heavily involved in any US military actions against China, the Starlink actions in Ukraine is a sign of things to come.

The counter argument is, we know a factory in China can achieve a quick ROI.

It is also likely the profits and cash flow from Shanghai can help fund the new factory, and staff from Shanghai can help build/ramp it.

The way warfare is going, a $20,000 stealth drone sub may exist in 10 years time, that can easily sink a $20,000,000 destroyer.
When leaders do a proper, professional, well researched investigation, before starting a war, they usually choose not to start the war.

War is no certainty, but good profits from the factory are a practical certainty.
China is where the "value for money" EV competition is situated, Tesla needs to go head-to-head with them, and they need to go head-to-head with Tesla.

Finally if we consider the mission, accelerating clean energy and transport, an additional factory in China ticks a lot of boxes.

 

[Singuy]

At the risk of drawing the ire of mods, have you been following Chinese navy build up? They already have a bigger navy (in # of ships) than the US, and they're still expanding it, US observers are shocked that at one Chinese shipyard 5 destroyers are being built at the same time. This doesn't even count Chinese's various ballistic anti-carrier missiles specifically designed to kill US carriers.

10 years, that's when I estimate they'll have enough force to counter the US, that's when there'll be war over Taiwan. As long as Xi is in power this is pretty much inevitable, so I agree with Thekiwi and do hope Tesla be careful when further expanding its Chinese footprint. Note if there is war (or even hostilities without formal declaration of war), Tesla would become a target not just because it's a US company, but also because SpaceX will be heavily involved in any US military actions against China, the Starlink actions in Ukraine is a sign of things to come.

Yeah the Chinese are so prepared to challenge the west to the point of sending food and blankets to Russia because they are afraid of retaliation/sanctions while the West gives about 2 Fs sending Ukraine whatever they want.

Action speaks louder than words. If they really had plans of taking Taiwan, then they really needed all the allies they can muster, and currently Russia is not exactly happy with China's support.

Russia be like "hey China, lets show these western imperialists they can't push us around. Lets take Ukraine and I'll help you with Taiwan"
China is like "how about you do you...I'll send over some thoughts and prayers"

China's support is what Russia hoped EU's support was going to be..send over some blankets to Ukraine and look the other way. However we can tell from this event that China is way more scared of sanctions than EU with energy cut off.

 

[SmokyPeat]

At the risk of drawing the ire of mods, have you been following Chinese navy build up? They already have a bigger navy (in # of ships) than the US, and they're still expanding it, US observers are shocked that at one Chinese shipyard 5 destroyers are being built at the same time. This doesn't even count Chinese's various ballistic anti-carrier missiles specifically designed to kill US carriers.

10 years, that's when I estimate they'll have enough force to counter the US, that's when there'll be war over Taiwan. As long as Xi is in power this is pretty much inevitable, so I agree with Thekiwi and do hope Tesla be careful when further expanding its Chinese footprint. Note if there is war (or even hostilities without formal declaration of war), Tesla would become a target not just because it's a US company, but also because SpaceX will be heavily involved in any US military actions against China, the Starlink actions in Ukraine is a sign of things to come.

Xi will be 79 in ten years. If he's still in power at that point I doubt he'll have much stomach for a war with the West.

 

[Artful Dodger]

a $20,000 stealth drone sub may exist in 10 years time, that can easily sink a $20,000,000 destroyer.

Hahaha, $20 million bucks for a Destroyer? The USN Arleigh Burke class cost $1.85B each. So 100x your number.

TL;dr Drone swarms are deadly force multipliers. AEGIS can track 100 tgts simultaneously. They might face 2K drones.

 

[MC3OZ]

Hahaha, $20 million bucks for a Destroyer? The USN Arleigh Burke class cost $1.85B each. So 100x your number.

TL;dr Drone swarms are deadly force multipliers. AEGIS can track 100 tgts simultaneously. They might face 2K drones.

Hahaha, I'm a cheapskate,!!!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Xi will be 79 in ten years. If he's still in power at that point I doubt he'll have much stomach for a war with the West.

The same could have been said about Putin. Let's hope that Xi doesn't want to leave a legacy at all costs - one of the many downsides of being ruled by a dictator.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The same could have been said about Putin. Let's hope that Xi doesn't want to leave a legacy at all costs - one of the many downsides of being ruled by a dictator.

Putin is only 69 today. They are also considerably different men. Xi doesn't suffer from a fixation on the "glory days" of China. He's no angel either, but I think he is more of a rational actor. Of course Putin appeared that way earlier in his career, so ..... Fingers crossed!

 

[Drax7]

Xi will be 79 in ten years. If he's still in power at that point I doubt he'll have much stomach for a war with the West.

It’s the other way around, the US does not have the stomach to go to war with China.

 

[lafrisbee]

It’s the other way around, the US does not have the stomach to go to war with China.

hopefully it becomes both ways.

 

[Kenypowa]

It’s the other way around, the US does not have the stomach to go to war with China.

Despite all the blusters and threats, China is the one without the stomach to go to war.

Remember PLA threatened to shoot down Pelosi's plane? Or to "escort" her plane? Or to conduct large scale exercise while she was visiting Taiwan?

In the end, they managed to shoot a few missiles into the sea after Pelosi left. Instead of scaring off the Taiwanese, no one batted an eye on the island. Taiwanese has endured Chinese threat since 1949. This is not to say we don't take the threat seriously. But China has and always been a paper tiger.

Not saying an arm conflict is impossible (as shown in Ukraine), but the likelihood is extremely low. The day when China stops threatening Taiwan/US, and starts to build up forces, is the day we should start worrying. Until then, it's business as usual.

 

[kbM3]

Alexandra (Boomer Mama), with a brilliant takedown of Moody’s

Moody's, the world is watching

My take at an answer to Rene Lipsch, Moody's Analyst in charge of rating Tesla

alexandramerz.substack.com

 

[kbM3]

Just noticed our very own accountant has a twitter profile:

https://twitter.com/cpainnyc?s=21&t=TFg_jiZPLaQaMcbjaoWawA

 

[Drax7]

Despite all the blusters and threats, China is the one without the stomach to go to war.

Remember PLA threatened to shoot down Pelosi's plane? Or to "escort" her plane? Or to conduct large scale exercise while she was visiting Taiwan?

In the end, they managed to shoot a few missiles into the sea after Pelosi left. Instead of scaring off the Taiwanese, no one batted an eye on the island. Taiwanese has endured Chinese threat since 1949. This is not to say we don't take the threat seriously. But China has and always been a paper tiger.

Not saying an arm conflict is impossible (as shown in Ukraine), but the likelihood is extremely low. The day when China stops threatening Taiwan/US, and starts to build up forces, is the day we should start worrying. Until then, it's business as usual.

Yes we should send 18 years from the USA to defend Taiwan. It makes tons of sense,
anyways their lives are cheap.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

At the risk of drawing the ire of mods, have you been following Chinese navy build up? They already have a bigger navy (in # of ships) than the US, and they're still expanding it, US observers are shocked that at one Chinese shipyard 5 destroyers are being built at the same time. This doesn't even count Chinese's various ballistic anti-carrier missiles specifically designed to kill US carriers.

10 years, that's when I estimate they'll have enough force to counter the US, that's when there'll be war over Taiwan. As long as Xi is in power this is pretty much inevitable, so I agree with Thekiwi and do hope Tesla be careful when further expanding its Chinese footprint. Note if there is war (or even hostilities without formal declaration of war), Tesla would become a target not just because it's a US company, but also because SpaceX will be heavily involved in any US military actions against China, the Starlink actions in Ukraine is a sign of things to come.

IMO China's navy is somewhat of a paper tiger. Yes, they are building surface ships rapidly-all of which make nice targets for ADCAP torpedos. They (nominally) have carriers-but they are relatively small, with "ski jump" decks to launch aircraft-nothing close to the capability of a Nimitz or Ford class carrier. More in line with a WWII Essex or perhaps Midway class carrier than a "super carrier". From what I've read their latest "stealth" fighters are lacking-both in stealth and other areas. More in line with 1970s era western fighters than today's "5th gen" fighters. And as Russia has demonstrated so well, just having the hardware doesn't mean they are capable of using it effectively. They don't have the experience of a modern, blue ocean navy, they haven't been training the navy or air force the way we do. Yes, a danger, but perhaps not as much of one as raw numbers suggest.