China / Taiwan discussion

[Tam]

...Apple...

Apple said it diversified the locations due to the rising tension between Washington and Beijing.

It doesn't cite cost savings as the reason:

"But manufacturing in India does not mean the phones will be cheaper in the country because of high import duties on components and other taxes."

iPhone in India: Apple makes new handset in India in shift from China

The announcement marks the technology giant's latest move to diversify its supply chains outside China.

www.bbc.com

 

[CLK350]

Can't remember if I already said it .. anyway, just in case: no worries, China is NOT going to invade Taiwan in the next future (aka next few years).

Why, because that's their way: if they can invade successfully they will (would) simply do it. Till then they talk big, scaring people enough with the requisite gestures.

I just wanted to interrupt the current discussion for an entertaining view of Chinese politics. Seems like the Hu incident was a trick gone awry at the last minute in full view of the assembled CCP. Seems like they just prevented Hu from raising an objection (thus preventing the maybe faked list of candidates to be opposed). So in a few seconds we saw -live- the coup putting Xi in power.

See this video for details

TBH I much prefer Elon's humoristic TWTR sink meme and all the previous skirmishing

 

[Cosmacelf]

Can't remember if I already said it .. anyway, just in case: no worries, China is NOT going to invade Taiwan in the next future (aka next few years).

Why, because that's their way: if they can invade successfully they will (would) simply do it. Till then they talk big, scaring people enough with the requisite gestures.

I just wanted to interrupt the current discussion for an entertaining view of Chinese politics. Seems like the Hu incident was a trick gone awry at the last minute in full view of the assembled CCP. Seems like they just prevented Hu from raising an objection (thus preventing the maybe faked list of candidates to be opposed). So in a few seconds we saw -live- the coup putting Xi in power.

See this video for details

TBH I much prefer Elon's humoristic TWTR sink meme and all the previous skirmishing

I gave up after 8 minutes. She never actually says anything other than laborious observations on what we could see in the videos. What was her conclusion?

 

[CLK350]

I gave up after 8 minutes. She never actually says anything other than laborious observations on what we could see in the videos. What was her conclusion?

That it was an attempt of Hu to derail Xi's power grab, which Xi had to handle on the spot in full view of the world. Illustrated thanks to a sharp cameraman who happened to have filmed the previous 2 minutes.

Agreed she's a bit longish, BUT she's the first person I know who gave a very plausible scenario of what happened. Better than all the pro journalists on the usual news.

 

[spacerfc]

The end of the system of the world

A critical point has been reached; decoupling is for real this time.

noahpinion.substack.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Apple said it diversified the locations due to the rising tension between Washington and Beijing.

It doesn't cite cost savings as the reason:

"But manufacturing in India does not mean the phones will be cheaper in the country because of high import duties on components and other taxes."

iPhone in India: Apple makes new handset in India in shift from China

The announcement marks the technology giant's latest move to diversify its supply chains outside China.

www.bbc.com

They have to dampen any expectations of price reductions for the Indian market.

But more importantly it's a message to the Indian government that if they want them to expand rapidly they need some breaks, otherwise they'd need to move slower as they'd have to build up all the component supply.

Definitely one to watch.

 

[betstarship]

Odds 'very high' of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says

A top Republican in the U.S. Congress said on Sunday the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a U.S. general caused consternation with a memo that warned that the United States would fight China in the next two years.

www.reuters.com

I'm worried how a potential conflict between the US and China might result in problems for Tesla/TSLA. Climate change is a bigger problem set and Elon might be a bridge for peace between the countries with how much he's been able to broker in China for Tesla (compared to any other CEO in the past). It's interesting the source explicitly calls out 2025, which is after the next US presidential election.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Odds 'very high' of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says

A top Republican in the U.S. Congress said on Sunday the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a U.S. general caused consternation with a memo that warned that the United States would fight China in the next two years.

www.reuters.com

I'm worried how a potential conflict between the US and China might result in problems for Tesla/TSLA. Climate change is a bigger problem set and Elon might be a bridge for peace between the countries with how much he's been able to broker in China for Tesla (compared to any other CEO in the past). It's interesting the source explicitly calls out 2025, which is after the next US presidential election.

I am hoping this is a nothingburger. The military general could just have been doing what I hope every general in every country does. Make sure his command is ready for any possibility. Whether or not China is about to launch an attack or not, the US military had better be prepared in case that happens.

I personally don’t think this is going to happen. You can bet, though, that if it does, the US response is going to be massive in comparison with Russia and Ukraine. Taiwan is ground zero for advanced semiconductors. The US and more importantly, the military, cares a lot about that. While China might be stupid enough to try something (you never know), such a war won’t last long.

 

[betstarship]

Some more news coming out of China:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619892221184184320

 

[Daniel in SD]

Odds 'very high' of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says

A top Republican in the U.S. Congress said on Sunday the odds of conflict with China over Taiwan "are very high" after a U.S. general caused consternation with a memo that warned that the United States would fight China in the next two years.

www.reuters.com

I'm worried how a potential conflict between the US and China might result in problems for Tesla/TSLA. Climate change is a bigger problem set and Elon might be a bridge for peace between the countries with how much he's been able to broker in China for Tesla (compared to any other CEO in the past). It's interesting the source explicitly calls out 2025, which is after the next US presidential election.

I don’t think Elon would be a good mediator, he’s already said he supports the CCP’s position.

 

[Tam]

...worried...

Taiwan and China have been excellent partners for years, even now, despite all the tensions. "Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the U.S."

Most Taiwanese want the status quo.

But that status quo has been rattled by the US.

So war or peace for Taiwan is in the hand of the US.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Taiwan and China have been excellent partners for years, even now, despite all the tensions. "Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the U.S."

Most Taiwanese want the status quo.

But that status quo has been rattled by the US.

So war or peace for Taiwan is in the hand of the US.

Yes, the Taiwanese are our puppets. They have no free will.

 

[STS-134]

Taiwan and China have been excellent partners for years, even now, despite all the tensions. "Data show that Taiwan depends more on China for trade than it does on the U.S."

Most Taiwanese want the status quo.

But that status quo has been rattled by the US.

So war or peace for Taiwan is in the hand of the US.

US and ROC aren't the ones doing the saber rattling here. The Ukrainians and NATO aren't the ones doing the saber rattling on the other end of the continent either.

 

[Tam]

US and ROC aren't the ones doing the saber rattling here.

This is the US Embassy statement that supports One China Policy and does not support Taiwan Independence:

"On Taiwan, our approach has been consistent across decades and administrations. As the President has said, our policy has not changed. The United States remains committed to our “one China” policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."

From time to time, we hear that the beasts attack some people who are not assigned to care for the zoo animals! Somehow they don't acknowledge the dangers of those beasts and would cross over the visitor's barriers and get close next to those cages.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn't care and visited Taiwan anyhow despite China's opposition.

After her, the current House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, will visit Taiwan in 2023.

The Ukrainians and NATO aren't the ones doing the saber rattling on the other end of the continent either.

James Bake told Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would stop expanding eastward once NATO is allowed to expand to East Germany: "If you let your part of Germany go, we will move NATO not one inch eastward."

50 American foreign policy leaders, wrote to President Bill Clinton in 1997 that pushing NATO’s borders eastward would be “a policy error of historic proportions. We believe that NATO expansion will decrease allied security and unsettle European stability … In Russia, NATO expansion, which continues to be opposed across the entire political spectrum, will strengthen the nondemocratic opposition, undercut those who favor reform and cooperation with the West, bring the Russians to question the entire post-Cold War settlement, and galvanize resistance in the Duma …”

Those warnings were ignored and James Baker's statement was violated as NATO kept expanding eastward.

That's because the US doesn't take Russia seriously (remember those zoo attacks above?) because Russia is perceived as weak and can't fight back.

However, even when the enemies are weak, war is unpredictable, and it is best to settle an issue diplomatically rather than provoke each other into war.

 

[Tam]

Yes, the Taiwanese are our puppets. They have no free will.

Taiwan needs business from China. However, the US has put up some obstacles so Taiwan cannot trade with China in certain areas such as advanced chips.

Most likely, Taiwan would be a neutral party behind the scenes while acting obediently to the US. It would quietly work with China to circumvent the advanced chip ban ordered by the US.

As long as Taiwan is cooperating with China, I don't think there will be war even when the US provokes China into war.

 

[STS-134]

This is the US Embassy statement that supports One China Policy and does not support Taiwan Independence:

"On Taiwan, our approach has been consistent across decades and administrations. As the President has said, our policy has not changed. The United States remains committed to our “one China” policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means."

From time to time, we hear that the beasts attack some people who are not assigned to care for the zoo animals! Somehow they don't acknowledge the dangers of those beasts and would cross over the visitor's barriers and get close next to those cages.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn't care and visited Taiwan anyhow despite China's opposition.

After her, the current House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, will visit Taiwan in 2023.

Such visits aren't statements for, not are they statements against, the idea of there being One China.

This is the US Embassy statement that supports One China Policy and does not support Taiwan Independence:

James Bake told Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would stop expanding eastward once NATO is allowed to expand to East Germany: "If you let your part of Germany go, we will move NATO not one inch eastward."

50 American foreign policy leaders, wrote to President Bill Clinton in 1997 that pushing NATO’s borders eastward would be “a policy error of historic proportions. We believe that NATO expansion will decrease allied security and unsettle European stability … In Russia, NATO expansion, which continues to be opposed across the entire political spectrum, will strengthen the nondemocratic opposition, undercut those who favor reform and cooperation with the West, bring the Russians to question the entire post-Cold War settlement, and galvanize resistance in the Duma …”

Those warnings were ignored and James Baker's statement was violated as NATO kept expanding eastward.

That's because the US doesn't take Russia seriously (remember those zoo attacks above?) because Russia is perceived as weak and can't fight back.

However, even when the enemies are weak, war is unpredictable, and it is best to settle an issue diplomatically rather than provoke each other into war.

1. Where was this supposed promise not to expand NATO eastward ever put down in writing? Show me the document. (BTW, do you know what was put down in writing and violated by Russia? Lookup the Minsk Agreements.)

2. NATO is a mutual defense treaty that is open to all countries in Europe, including Russia. Only reason countries are running to NATO is because of Putin's bullying. Unlike the Warsaw Pact, no country has ever been bullied into joining NATO, nor has NATO ever attacked itself (the same cannot be said of the Warsaw Pact, which attacked Hungary in the 1950s).

It is Putin's fault that NATO has expanded. It is also Putin's fault that Russia isn't in NATO and isn't welcome. It is the PRC's fault that the ROC populace generally wants nothing to do with the PRC's political system (see also: Hong Kong National Security Law).

 

[Tam]

Such visits aren't statements for, not are they statements against, the idea of there being One China.


1. Where was this supposed promise not to expand NATO eastward ever put down in writing? Show me the document. (BTW, do you know what was put down in writing and violated by Russia? Lookup the Minsk Agreements.)

It is true that James Baker's statement is not a written treaty but its assurances have been well documented:

NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard | National Security Archive

Western leaders gave multiple assurances against NATO expansion to Gorbachev in 1990-1991 according to declassified American, Russian, British, Germans documents

nsarchive.gwu.edu

 

[Tam]

It is Putin's fault that NATO has expanded...

It is true that when a beast attacks humans, the protocol is to hunt it down and kill that beast.

However, some zoos would refuse to do that, citing that humans underestimate the beasts and disregard the visitor's barriers to get close to the cage.

 

[Tam]

...It is the PRC's fault that the ROC populace generally wants nothing to do with the PRC's political system (see also: Hong Kong National Security Law).

Not according to the Taiwanese. They do not want change. The philosophy is : "Not on my shift", "Kick the can down the road."

See Message #44 above with the link from the Taipei Times

 

[Daniel in SD]

Not according to the Taiwanese. They do not want change. The philosophy is : "Not on my shift", "Kick the can down the road."

See Message #44 above with the link from the Taipei Times

It sounds like we all agree that the Taiwanese do not* want to become a special administrative region like Hong Kong.
*oops left out the not!