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China Wins Electric Bus War

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mspohr

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2014
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California
The bus wars are over. Electricity — and China — won.

China has 421,000 electric buses. The United States has 300.

But in recent years, it has become overwhelmingly clear that nothing can compete with electricity for the highest efficiency and performance along with lowest emissions and lifetime cost, including fuel and maintenance.

“Everything that has an urban drive cycle will ultimately be an electric vehicle,” Ryan Popple, the president and CEO of Proterra, the leading U.S. electric bus company, explained to ThinkProgress back in 2016.

But electric buses aren’t just winning because they have no tailpipe emissions. They are also so efficient they have one-fourth the per-mile fueling cost of regular diesel buses and the other alternatives — even running on renewable power, thanks to the rapid price drops of solar and wind power.

In addition, electric buses have considerably lower maintenance costs, as many studieshave shown. So over the 10- to 12-year lifetime of a typical urban transport bus, an electric bus can save $400,000 in total operational costs compared to a typical diesel.

The Chinese have a 99% stranglehold on production and use of electric batteries. The United States has little chance of matching China until we have a president and Congress that understand that the urgency and inevitability of a carbon-free future means the nation that makes the biggest bets on clean technology will reap the most rewards in the years to come.

upload_2019-5-24_14-12-34.png
 
I'd be OK with a coherent strategy that delivers progress that can be felt in a useful amount of time.

Makes no sense aiming for a goal that is simply out of reach [China's electric bus market penetration]. Skating backwards and blindfolded towards the puck... in

Alternative goals make a lot more sense - say massive investments in renewables science, and working on making the US the attractive first stop for top-flight scientists again by removing barriers to movement and cooperation. Transparent regulatory frameworks conducive to growth. Free trade mechanisms like TTIP and TPP.

Ryan Popple used to work for Tesla - he's an interesting person for sure.
Here's an audio interview that I recommend:
Watt It Takes: Assessing the Promise of Electric Buses With Proterra CEO Ryan Popple

Just a teeny addendum: this is not a war. Pet peeve.
 
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I'd be OK with a coherent strategy that delivers progress that can be felt in a useful amount of time.

Makes no sense aiming for a goal that is simply out of reach [China's electric bus market penetration]. Skating backwards and blindfolded towards the puck... in

Alternative goals make a lot more sense - say massive investments in renewables science, and working on making the US the attractive first stop for top-flight scientists again by removing barriers to movement and cooperation. Transparent regulatory frameworks conducive to growth. Free trade mechanisms like TTIP and TPP.

Ryan Popple used to work for Tesla - he's an interesting person for sure.
Here's an audio interview that I recommend:
Watt It Takes: Assessing the Promise of Electric Buses With Proterra CEO Ryan Popple

Just a teeny addendum: this is not a war. Pet peeve.
I agree that labeling everything a "war" is stupid. It's a competition.

Research is all fine and good but China has taken over the electric bus market using existing technology. US excels in research... not so much in development.

Free trade will help the Chinese take over the world bus market.
 
TTIP was meant to be with Europe, TPP expressly with Asian countries other than China.

The EU now has FTAs with Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Chile, and probably quite some more countries. A Jaguar e-Pace built in Austria by Magna can now be exported tariff-free to Japan.

I agree that it's not only in our interest to treat China separately. Useful rules and some clarity of conduct would still be a net benefit, though.

As for the scientific angle, Tesla certainly looks like it will benefit from Maxwell's tech. The question must be why the heck so very many American enterprises just have no staying power in or strategy for the gigantic world market?
 
The following list is instructive, I think:
Top 100 global OEM parts suppliers – Ranked by sales of original equipment parts in 2017
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA116090622.PDF

Elon Musk said during his visit to Germany in 2016 [I think] that Tesla couldn't find American suppliers of sufficient quality for certain interior parts and had to use a German company. Likewise for the Model 3's special electric cabling sourced from Austria [that small firm invested early in advanced products]. Etc...
 
The following list is instructive, I think:
Top 100 global OEM parts suppliers – Ranked by sales of original equipment parts in 2017
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA116090622.PDF

Elon Musk said during his visit to Germany in 2016 [I think] that Tesla couldn't find American suppliers of sufficient quality for certain interior parts and had to use a German company. Likewise for the Model 3's special electric cabling sourced from Austria [that small firm invested early in advanced products]. Etc...
Wow! That's interesting... Not many US suppliers there. Europe dominates the list.
 
Don't think the US even have that many buses alltogether. That could be one reason why there is not a very high interest from manufactures. It should not be too hard for Tesla to make self driving electric bus if there is enough demand to make it worthwhile.
 
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I'd be OK with a coherent strategy that delivers progress that can be felt in a useful amount of time.

Makes no sense aiming for a goal that is simply out of reach [China's electric bus market penetration]. Skating backwards and blindfolded towards the puck... in

Alternative goals make a lot more sense - say massive investments in renewables science, and working on making the US the attractive first stop for top-flight scientists again by removing barriers to movement and cooperation. Transparent regulatory frameworks conducive to growth. Free trade mechanisms like TTIP and TPP.

Ryan Popple used to work for Tesla - he's an interesting person for sure.
Here's an audio interview that I recommend:
Watt It Takes: Assessing the Promise of Electric Buses With Proterra CEO Ryan Popple

Just a teeny addendum: this is not a war. Pet peeve.
Sadly, IMHO, you can't underestimate the corruption in many local governments. In ~ 1995 here in Seattle, Natural Gas fueled Buses were tested - simple modified diesel engines to burn Natural Gas - or buy replacements. Seattle was replacing and expanding large articulated buses [some over head electric with diesel engines to go beyond over head electric line to near by towns]. Of course great success. AND yet unexplained diesel replacements - no natural gas (Seattle/Tacoma area) were bought. Of course this increased fuel costs 4x for the next 25 years. When will we get electrics? still unknown. Oil companies love it. Also our Ferry system could save a small fortune by going electric, but we rebuilt these Ferry boats and used diesel generators to drive electric motors. Short range could have meant batteries and short ~ 10 mile runs solar panels on top of Ferry would have been forward thinking to help in charging (inspire/encourage solar panels - would have been great).

So I suspect Koch brothers and other oil companies have made sure bus/ferry electrification has been delayed.
The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles | HuffPost
 
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I agree that labeling everything a "war" is stupid. It's a competition.

Research is all fine and good but China has taken over the electric bus market using existing technology. US excels in research... not so much in development.

Free trade will help the Chinese take over the world bus market.
IF you listen/watch mainstream media CNN, MSNBC, FOX, major newspapers etc... You would "know" we are already at war with China.
Expansion of US Naval bases. Trillion Dollar expansion of atomic weapons. Military Planning of China & Russia wars. Venezuela and Iran. Africa
Bombing of Yemen (billions in sales of weapons, bombs, droning missions to allow Saudi to killing citizens in Yemen. Very dangerous times and really sad.
 
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side note: about 1,000 electric buses being tested by both BYD and Proterra. Only ~70,000 diesel buses to replace in the US. (per the interview see link OP at the top of this thread)
Another example of corruption - School buses - 400,000 are used twice per day. On my small island, I suspect taxis would be cheaper as I see so few kids on the bus. They must be sleeping on the seats. Island ~ 10 miles long. So bus diesel engines barely get to operating temp.

These are some of the reasons electric markets are China, Europe and US a distant third. Except for Tesla which supplies much of the electrics in California & US.
13 Amazing Tesla Sales Milestones (+ 17 Charts) | CleanTechnica
 
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There's a huge weight penalty. Because so much mass needs moving forward, before even one passenger has set foot aboard, a huge battery pack is required. With these guys What’s in a Battery Anyway? – Battery Electric Buses in London - AVID Technology I also came to the conclusion that the batteries must be weighing around 4 metric tons. With an expected range of 250 km. Not a problem when the bus is full of passengers (commuting). But when their number tapers off, the ratio gets bad rapidly.

evolution%2B%25281%2529.jpg
 
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There's a huge weight penalty. Because so much mass needs moving forward, before even one passenger has set foot aboard, a huge battery pack is required. With these guys What’s in a Battery Anyway? – Battery Electric Buses in London - AVID Technology I also came to the conclusion that the batteries must be weighing around 4 metric tons. With an expected range of 250 km. Not a problem when the bus is full of passengers (commuting). But when their number tapers off, the ratio gets bad rapidly.

evolution%2B%25281%2529.jpg
I think we need to consider factors other than weight. Yes, more weight does take more energy to get the bus up to speed and does take more energy when going uphill. However, a lot of that energy is recaptured by regeneration as the bus slows down or goes down hill.
Other factors which would influence battery size would be wind and tire resistance which are relatively low at typical bus speeds.
It may take a lot of power to get a bus moving but not much energy so I don't think their assumptions about battery size are realistic.
 
Empty bus Diesel & Electric - which weighs more?
Which one is cheaper to run? Either empty or full of people.

yes, it was a trick question. Electric is always much cheaper.

And it looks like China may own the Bus market - except of course with government. Buy American for example. you get the idea