Choose my Tesla: Comparing True Cost of Ownership

[rDunivin]

Okay well today is the day, well tomorrow is when I buy so I decide today.

This is a follow up post to one I created yesterday and got some much appreciated feedback from the community here. I really do appreciate it and will also monitor those.

I wanted to update some numbers, streamline the post to have all the numbers in one place, and add in some of the thoughts I now have.
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Ultimately I am looking for the lowest cost of ownership on my new Tesla. My current car is likely to be totaled so finding it's replacement.

What has already been decided:
I like the X's door gimmicks, but these have found to be out of budget.
I want FSD, mostly bc I want to be able to get the upgrades down the road.
I think I will be happy either with an S or stealth 3 for everyday use. Enjoyed both test drives.
I currently won't have the ability to add a home charger, but there are genuine superchargers right at work that are usually not in use.
I will be driving about 15k miles a year.
I will want AWD as living in New England
I used Teslanomics cost of charge calculator and found that at $.23 kWh 15k miles a year on a 3 costs $1,284

What are the options:

Car: Dec 2016 Facelited Model S 75D, 55k miles, FSD, premium package, no cold weather upgraded stereo or air suspension
Cost of car: $50k (Will need to add $2k for MCU 2.0 update claimed)
Cost of fuel: $0
Cost of insurance: $2,500 per year currently.
Excise tax over 5 years: $1,150
Warranty: 1.5 years or 20k miles left on extended service plan, 5 years unlimited miles left on battery.
Cost of car over 5 year private party auto loan at 5.89%, including excise tax, fuel, insurance, and upgraded MCU: $77,600

Car: 2018 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 35k miles, FSD
Cost of car: $50k
Cost of fuel: $1,284 per year currently
Cost of insurance: $1,500 per year currently.
Excise tax over 5 years: $1,190
Warranty: 2 years or 15k miles left on original warranty, 6 years or 85k miles left on battery.
Cost of car over 5 year private party auto loan at 5.89%, including excise tax, fuel, insurance: $79,000

Car: 2020 Model 3 Stealth Performance, 0 miles, FSD
Cost of car: $57k
Cost of fuel: $1,284 per year currently
Cost of insurance: $2,100 per year currently.
Excise tax over 5 years: $4,300
Warranty: 4 yr or 50k miles new car warranty, 8 year or 120k mile battery warranty.
Cost of car over 5 year private party auto loan at 3.5%, including excise tax, fuel, insurance: $89,400

Okay so that was a lot. If you made it here, thank you. I value your opinion highly!

 

[A-Wimoweh]

Don't forget about the cost of the tires. Especially with the model 3 performance, which probably has summer tires on it that you will wear thru in about 20k miles. Not to mention if you want awd for snow, you'll likely want a second set of winter tires and wheels. The performance rubber will turn into a hockey puck in the cold up there. Best bet is probably the 2018 model 3, it's got the latest tech. The 2016 S already can't support most of the features released in the recent updates.

 

[rDunivin]

Don't forget about the cost of the tires. Especially with the model 3 performance, which probably has summer tires on it that you will wear thru in about 20k miles. Not to mention if you want awd for snow, you'll likely want a second set of winter tires and wheels. The performance rubber will turn into a hockey puck in the cold up there. Best bet is probably the 2018 model 3, it's got the latest tech. The 2016 S already can't support most of the features released in the recent updates.

Thats a good point.
Since I'm looking at stealth performance they like the S will have all seasons and in these cases 18's.

 

[N..8]

It's always hard to give advice on something like this. I would shy away from the MS, if you are comparing it with a M3 in that the range will be a lot lower in 5 years of usage and repair cost of the MS is going to start adding into the budget on a car with over 100k by then. As for choosing between the 2018 and 2020 the known cost over 5 years is pretty small per month. Same thing as above you're starting with 35k already, also does the 2018 have the FSD computer in it because the 2020 will have it already installed. I have a Dec 2017 MS75 and really like the car but for me my next will be a MY. Unless your willing to buy a new MS the used market of MS is behind on the tech and the mileage is not up to the M3 for normal usage.

 

[rDunivin]

It's always hard to give advice on something like this. I would shy away from the MS, if you are comparing it with a M3 in that the range will be a lot lower in 5 years of usage and repair cost of the MS is going to start adding into the budget on a car with over 100k by then. As for choosing between the 2018 and 2020 the known cost over 5 years is pretty small per month. Same thing as above you're starting with 35k already, also does the 2018 have the FSD computer in it because the 2020 will have it already installed. I have a Dec 2017 MS75 and really like the car but for me my next will be a MY. Unless your willing to buy a new MS the used market of MS is behind on the tech and the mileage is not up to the M3 for normal usage.

Both the 2018 and 2020 have the FSD package, not sure if the 2018 will need to go to a SC for a upgrade though.

The behind the tech is a worrying thing for the S. I really do hope the MCU 2 for $2k is true and ideally in the next couple months as Elon says but hey if its a year it's a year...just hopefully not more than that...
and then becomes the question of wether even the 3 gets MCU 3 depending on how far out that is.

I've degradation on the S inst very much, am I incorrect?
Will be interesting to see how the batteries in the S and 3 will compare with the revised formulation.

One thing I noted is that the S is sold with 8 year unlimited milage battery/drive warranty. vs the 3 has the 8 year but a milage cap at 120k miles (though also mention of degradation coverage)

 

[Simon_Emes]

The mcu is not so important - at least to me. Mcu 1 is fast enough. For Netflix there are always other devices with me.

S rolls differently, if you drive mainly city there is no difference in range need and s covers that easily.

I had to take the s because for a family of 4 the 3 is simply too small. Less range than a model 3 means a few longer breaks, like 10 to 15 mins per stop - not important too me, usually fast enough. Of course YMMV.

All that said I found free super charging is not important or economical, would not count that high into future decisions.

Next one will be CT and model Y, ideal for the family.

 

[N..8]

Both the 2018 and 2020 have the FSD package, not sure if the 2018 will need to go to a SC for a upgrade though.

The behind the tech is a worrying thing for the S. I really do hope the MCU 2 for $2k is true and ideally in the next couple months as Elon says but hey if its a year it's a year...just hopefully not more than that...
and then becomes the question of wether even the 3 gets MCU 3 depending on how far out that is.

I've degradation on the S inst very much, am I incorrect?
Will be interesting to see how the batteries in the S and 3 will compare with the revised formulation.

One thing I noted is that the S is sold with 8 year unlimited milage battery/drive warranty. vs the 3 has the 8 year but a milage cap at 120k miles (though also mention of degradation coverage)

I don't think that the MCU1 will ever be upgraded to the MCU2 it's not cost effective for Tesla to do it. As for the warranty of the Battery and DU, the MS will expire in 4 years and the M3 you will not have 120k in four years unless you drive crazy a lot. So the unlimited factor should be removed from your equation and you will not have to worry about it until 120k of miles you drive. So maybe 5 or so years from now rather than the guaranteed 4 years of the MS. It seems like you really like running the numbers so I can relate to you. For me a Tesla isn't like a normal car when if it's out of warranty it will nickel and dime you. When things get worn out currently we are at the mercy of Tesla with very little aftermarket parts. The volume of MS sales over the past 6 years isn't as high as the current M3 so in five years parts for the M3 from wrecked cars will be more available than MS. So if you can get the MS for 12k cheaper than a new M3 will it be lost in 6 years from now when drive shafts at 1k need to be replaced and other normal suspension parts wear out? All things to think about.

 

[rDunivin]

I don't think that the MCU1 will ever be upgraded to the MCU2 it's not cost effective for Tesla to do it. As for the warranty of the Battery and DU, the MS will expire in 4 years and the M3 you will not have 120k in four years unless you drive crazy a lot. So the unlimited factor should be removed from your equation and you will not have to worry about it until 120k of miles you drive. So maybe 5 or so years from now rather than the guaranteed 4 years of the MS. It seems like you really like running the numbers so I can relate to you. For me a Tesla isn't like a normal car when if it's out of warranty it will nickel and dime you. When things get worn out currently we are at the mercy of Tesla with very little aftermarket parts. The volume of MS sales over the past 6 years isn't as high as the current M3 so in five years parts for the M3 from wrecked cars will be more available than MS. So if you can get the MS for 12k cheaper than a new M3 will it be lost in 6 years from now when drive shafts at 1k need to be replaced and other normal suspension parts wear out? All things to think about.

Well it is funny you bring up suspension. A big part of why I am thinking a normal coil S vs an air suspension S.

Crystal balling there is the aspect of depreciation, but then even if the S depreciates less does the added repair end up costing more. Impossible to know for sure. It's just educated guessing.

I am hopeful on the MCU 2 upgrade. Recent chatter giving a timeline and price helped. Plus they need to figure out a way to get full FSD on the MCU 1 AP2 Tesla's. Tesla says they have this whole sustainable mission and don't want any obsolescence in the cars, plus they can always upgrade their own pre owned inventory and charge more for it.

I honestly don't care too much about Netflix, could care less about the games or karaoke mode - but would like Sentry and the better all around speed, and not sure what will come in the future.

 

[ewoodrick]

You don't buy a Tesla for the least depreciation. You can buy many other EVs for the amount a Tesla depreciates

 

[rDunivin]

You don't buy a Tesla for the least depreciation. You can buy many other EVs for the amount a Tesla depreciates

While this is definitely the case, I also am weighing in the other ownership costs - chiefly maintenance and repair. There are definitely some other electric vehicles with lower cost - but to get decent range I only saw the bolt and the new leaf. These didn't seem much cheaper and I like how with Tesla you have the charging network.

Helpful way of thinking of it all the same though.

 

[geoffmanley]

$7k more for a brand new car with 35k less miles? I would have no problem making that decision.

 

[Max*]

Don't buy a car in hopes of vaporware. It's unlikely that true FSD will come out anytime soon. If you're willing to pay extra for the added features of the "FSD", that's different.

Also, having both an S and a 3, I wouldn't get an S again. It's been the most unreliable car I've owned, and I get it, that's just my experience (it's the opposite for other people).

 

[geoffmanley]

Don't buy a car in hopes of vaporware. It's unlikely that true FSD will come out anytime soon. If you're willing to pay extra for the added features of the "FSD", that's different.

Also, having both an S and a 3, I wouldn't get an S again. It's been the most unreliable car I've owned, and I get it, that's just my experience (it's the opposite for other people).

Yes, I've mentioned this before, when Tesla figures out how to negotiate a two way stop on a divided road, let me know. Smart summon really gives us an idea of where FSD really is...it's pretty far off. And regulations will kick it even further back. When I get the Cybertruck I will get FSD but mainly to be able to summon it into and out of tight parking spots. Is that worth $7k, laughably no, but hopefully we will be closer to actual FSD in two years.

 

[rDunivin]

Don't buy a car in hopes of vaporware. It's unlikely that true FSD will come out anytime soon. If you're willing to pay extra for the added features of the "FSD", that's different.

Also, having both an S and a 3, I wouldn't get an S again. It's been the most unreliable car I've owned, and I get it, that's just my experience (it's the opposite for other people).

Well that's concerning about the S haha