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Choosing a new electricity plan in Texas...

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I have a MY on order that is set to arrive at the same time my electricity plan renews. Since plan terms in Texas have gotten so complicated, I base my plan choice on the previous years usage + 3rd party tools to help me find the best plan. The trick with finding the right plan is making sure your projections are somewhat accurate, as rates can vary WILDY at different increments. So it pays to be as accurate as possible and try to pick a plan that doesn't penalize you too badly if you think you'll go a little over or under.

For example, my current plan has an effective rate of 8.5 cents, but varies based on monthly usage tiers:
500kwh: 10.0 cents
1,000kwh: 9.3 cents
2,000kwh: 9.0 cents

The Tesla will increase my electricity usage, but I can easily add additional kWh each month based on the numbers of miles I think I'll be driving. If I average 3 miles/kWh in the MY and drive 1,000 miles a month, that'd be 333 extra kWh per month that I should add to my projections.

Some questions:

1. Is there an agreed upon average Mi/kWh for the MY LR with Gemini wheels? I'm aware there are many factors, but since I don't have the vehicle yet, looking for a realistic "middle of the road" estimate.

2. Has anyone done similar projections? How has it worked out? Anything else worth considering?
 
1. Is there an agreed upon average Mi/kWh for the MY LR with Gemini wheels? I'm aware there are many factors, but since I don't have the vehicle yet, looking for a realistic "middle of the road" estimate.
Sorry, I don't have a direct answer for your question, but even if you already had one you would need to be careful about using it. The problem with such values is that they are almost always strictly about efficiency of travel, not about total electrical usage. This means that the various sources of energy loss/usage that aren't directly about moving the car or aren't occurring while the car is moving aren't accounted for. A partial list of things that won't be included or accounted for are: electrical resistance during charging, the round-trip efficiency of the car's battery, vampire drain, electrical usage for sentry mode if applicable, usage for climate control prior to travel (i.e. heating up or cooling down the car before you get in and start driving), pre-conditioning the battery when driving to a supercharger in cold weather. Some of the things on that list may not apply to your situation, e.g. if you're parking inside a closed private garage you may not be using sentry mode and the heating/cooling needs may be lower than those for someone parking on the street or uncovered, etc.

None of the things on the list should be overly concerning, it's just a caution to not find some value that will tell you how many miles you can drive for a given amount of electricity and then automatically assume that that is also the proper number to use for figuring out how your home electrical usage will increase. You need to account for more than the driving efficiency.
 
This means that the various sources of energy loss/usage that aren't directly about moving the car or aren't occurring while the car is moving aren't accounted for.

Gotcha. I was hoping those items were accounted for in that 3 miles/kWh figure. Perhaps a better question would be: Is there a common range of Mi/kWh for the MY? At this point I can't tell just how big those differences might be...
 
I don't have a good answer to your "common power draw expectations" question - I had my car and direct numbers to use when I moved to TX and had to sign up in the first place.

I'm assuming some of the tools you use are SmartMeterTexas and PowerToChoose.

In the vein of "going green", I'm on a 100% Renewable Free Nights plan (aka help use up excess West Texas wind power). I can tell you that with scheduled charging, if you drive any appreciable amount daily, you will save more than the average consumer...the EFLs on the plans when I signed up estimated 38% of use at night - for my household, it has been closer to 65%!

Anecdotally, pre-WFH, our 85D S would use 15%ish of battery daily and recharge via NEMA14-50. Combined with trying to reduce AC runtime during the day and trying to only use the 30A dryer at night, our total 2019 power cost was $1000 less than what a flat-rate plan would have been (effective rate came out as 4.9c/kWh). Being WFH in 2020 hurt the efficiency (less driving and more AC runtime), so our savings are down to $800ish (6.5c/kWh effective). My renewal is coming up, and even knowing my increased daytime use at the higher rate, the flat-rate options can't compete unless I literally sell the Tesla and have the AC at 68 all day.

Of course, YMMV. Good luck.
 
I don't have a good answer to your "common power draw expectations" question - I had my car and direct numbers to use when I moved to TX and had to sign up in the first place.

I'm assuming some of the tools you use are SmartMeterTexas and PowerToChoose.

I'm using https://www.smartmetertexas.com/ to pull the data and https://www.texaspowerguide.com/ to compare plans based on monthly usage projections. Texas Power Guide costs $10, but I find it worth the small fee to better navigate all the hidden complexities on the PowerToChoose site. Honestly, it's what the PTC site should offer.

We haven't been able to take advantage of a free nights plan. Our biggest draw is a salt water pool that needs to run ~8hrs during the day in the summer. I don't think we'll be able to overcome that, but maybe the numbers will look different after having the Y for a year...
 
Long before I got my Tesla Model S, I have tracked my electricity usage by the kwh, total dollars paid (incl. taxes/fees) by month. I can tell you when I used the heater any given month/year going back several years. I have used Power To Choose | Home everytime my contract is due for renewal, and I pick the best priced plan knowing my usage does not fluctuate much month-to-month.

The vehicle I had before got 30mpg. And after getting my Tesla, my family drives it more on weekends - and with more usage, my "fuel" costs are LOWER because electricity costs are much lower than gasoline. On average with a gas car, I paid $50-$75 per month with less vehicle usage. Now with more usage, I am paying about $10 per month in electricity to charge at home (using a NEMA 14-50 and a GEN 1 UMC )

and then there is no oil changes or belts or other engine type things to maintain.

obviously your usage/mileage/costs may vary - but this is what I realized.