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Chrysler 200 - What I think Model 3 should look like.

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Yeah, as cool as the XL1 looks it's pretty solid proof that anything in the 0.20 range or better has got to be a near teardrop shape. Fine for a two seater but difficult to pull off when you need to seat five and still have good luggage capacity. That pointy tail isn't going to haul a whole lot. I think the S/X 0.24 number will be tough to beat.

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I can pick a Model S out of a crowd in a blink. I think the S is a very unique looking car and I wouldn't change anything on it externally. Absolutely beautiful!
Everyone is different and I'd love to see a study on this, as my anecdotal experience (family, friends, co-workers I showed it to last week) has been completely opposite. Any idea if Tesla did any market research like this that's publicly available?


Some of those designs presented in the above post are too radical for most people. Remember that the Model 3 is the car that Tesla wants everyone to buy.
I disagree. Yearly Camaro and Mustang sales have held steady at around a quarter of a million, approximately the same as they were in the early 2000s when the F-bodies went away. The Model S numbers I've seen usually come in at around 10% of that. Will Tesla really have the production capacity to saturate a market 10x the size of the Model S sales? If not, then they should not have a problem selling a muscle car. And I think an EV that stands out in a positive way in the average person's mind is a lot better than one that blends in. The former speaks to public awareness, and has the potential to shatter common misconceptions: EVs are weird-looking (compared to ICEs), EVs perform poorly, EVs aren't 'sexy'.

The Roadster made a lot of progress in terms of shattering the public opinion of what limitations EVs had to have at the time. The Model S was a great step forward showing that they can have all the common amenities and features of a classy luxury car, but with the price tag it's still so far out of the reach of the common person I don't think many 'everymans' have taken notice (based on my week driving the S around and talking to people about it). Now Tesla is looking to show that EVs can compete with other cars in the $35k-$50k price range, but that's not actually an 'everyman' car. In fact, that's the range ruled by all current sports cars (Camaro, Mustang, Corvette), designed to stand out in the crowd of lower cost vehicles in middle-class neighborhoods. The actual 'everyman' car (given the $48k median income for Americans) is likely to be closer to a $16k Corolla (heck, the average American can't even afford that), and a fourth generation Tesla in that range is the better choice for a less aggressive design.

Though I will admit a little personal bias. Another Roadster sounds nice and all, but even though my income puts me at close to the 96th percentile I would have absolutely zero chance of affording one new. And my Roadster, while awesome to own, is terribly inconvenient when going out with the family. That's why my last car was a Mustang instead of a Corvette: four seats. Even when the kids grow up we have a social life and often go out with friends. What we really need is a 2+2 supercar for those who want (and can afford) superior performance and appearance without having to also be able to afford a second car that we hate to drive and the space to garage it, but I'd settle for an electric Camaro.


It certainly won't be shooting for any niche buyers with gimmicky doors or air scoops. Personally, I've never been a fan of muscle cars -- I appreciate them, but I'd never buy one. And that's where I mentally place anything with air scoops over the engine. And yes, they do scream out, "I have a gas engine that needs cooling and/or better air flow to get the most power." Not on the Model 3, thank you.
Now I think we're getting more into the topic of how much deviation from standard ICE design the public will take, and I think that's going to be a very very slow transition. The Roadster did just fine with scoops and heat extractors in the design. And the truth is the battery does require some cooling, and scoops can play a part in passive cooling.

And those scoops don't need to be right over the engine, nor are they necessarily needed. There are plenty of other possible design options for making a car look 'sporty'. The Corvette team, for instance, went almost two decades without a single scoop until the newest designs, though they could have used some ground effects and a spoiler (both relevant to EVs).
 
The Roadster made a lot of progress in terms of shattering the public opinion of what limitations EVs had to have at the time.

Most of the public never saw or had any exposure to the Roadster at the time, nor even knew about Tesla. The Model S is what really moved Tesla into the spotlight, though I'd still bet that a large portion of the public is to this day completely unaware of Tesla.
 
] Now Tesla is looking to show that EVs can compete with other cars in the $35k-$50k price range, but that's not actually an 'everyman' car. In fact, that's the range ruled by all current sports cars (Camaro, Mustang, Corvette), designed to stand out in the crowd of lower cost vehicles in middle-class neighborhoods.

First, I think you want a car that the Model 3 is not going to be. It's not going to be a 2 door coupe or sports car, it's going to be a 4 door family sedan. Also, the BMW 3 series sells 400-500K a year (not even counting Audi A4 and Mercedes C class), so I really don't think that the cars you are talking about rule that price range.
 
First, I think you want a car that the Model 3 is not going to be. It's not going to be a 2 door coupe or sports car, it's going to be a 4 door family sedan. Also, the BMW 3 series sells 400-500K a year (not even counting Audi A4 and Mercedes C class), so I really don't think that the cars you are talking about rule that price range.

+1.
As much as I'd love a sporty coupe there's just no way that's going to happen with the 3 platform on release. It needs to have the widest possible appeal and that by today's definition is some form of sedan, crossover or both. It's also been stated many times over that this car will targeting the BMW 3 series and its rivals (A4, C-Class, etc) which makes a lot of sense as they are also in the $35K to $50K range. So that's what we're going to get.
A coupe and pickup variant sometime between in 2020 and 2023? Now that I can see.
As well as a "true" mass market compact in the $20K - $25K range.
 
I disagree. Yearly Camaro and Mustang sales have held steady at around a quarter of a million, approximately the same as they were in the early 2000s when the F-bodies went away.

Do you have a source for those figures? I ask because the totals on Wikipedia are very different. They show Camaros in the range of 80-90k per year, and Mustangs between 130k and 166k early in the new product cycle in 2005-2007, then dropping to a range of 66-83k in the years since then. Mustang and Camaro sales combined totaled 169k in 2014. That pales in comparison to sedans like the Camry (428k), Corolla (339k), and Accord (near 400k). And they sell in large numbers in other markets as well, whereas Camaro and Mustang sales are nearly non-existent outside the USA. The F bodies were discontinued largely because of low sales, and even as they planned the re-introduction of the Camaro they had no plans to bring back the Firebird. The market is not that big.

The Model S numbers I've seen usually come in at around 10% of that. Will Tesla really have the production capacity to saturate a market 10x the size of the Model S sales? If not, then they should not have a problem selling a muscle car.

It's not really a matter of whether they would have a problem selling one. That's just not the target they're aiming for. A sedan has a much, much bigger potential market and is usable for a much larger pool of buyers. Even considering that it will cost more than a Camry (although a nicely-equipped Camry has an MSRP near $35k), you look at BMW 3 Series sales and they are roughly double those of the Mustang in the US, plus an overseas market that is even larger, with total production around half a million cars. That's where Tesla is aiming. A sports coupe/muscle car is small-time by comparison. I wouldn't expect them to make one until they expand to a full product line, and maybe not even then. The next Roadster will be filling at least part of that segment.

I am guessing the preorders for the Model 3 will eclipse yearly sales of Mustang and Camaro combined, before it even begins production.
 
I bet we're going to see a front grille on the Model 3 that's quite similar to the Model X. The rest of the sedan will probably resemble a Model S (but 20% smaller), with 1/3 less trunk space, and 1/2 the frunk space. It will probably have more of a hatchback look (for headroom in the 2nd row). It could have a similar shape to a Lexus NX.
 
I bet we're going to see a front grille on the Model 3 that's quite similar to the Model X. The rest of the sedan will probably resemble a Model S (but 20% smaller), with 1/3 less trunk space, and 1/2 the frunk space. It will probably have more of a hatchback look (for headroom in the 2nd row). It could have a similar shape to a Lexus NX.

Lexus NX is a CUV, not a sedan. It doesn't resemble a Model S in any way whatsoever.