Climate Change Update Investor Thread

[goinfraftw]

Think it'd be good to track climate change events and worldwide disaster recovery efforts alongside prioritization opportunities in the "market" for Tesla, if possible.

e.g. stuff like this is happening:
Rick Thoman on Twitter
Bill McKibben on Twitter

With the top 3 polluters being China, USA, and India (not in that order)...think we should look and size the various markets per country as well as the efforts in each to identify market opportunities in transportation and utilities (basically products, companies, market calculations, and updates). It might also be good to understand the major climate disasters that are occurring worldwide and share, specifically, the financing problems and opportunities available to recommend strategy in Tesla's current offerings.

Thoughts?

 

[HG Wells]

WHY ?
Our fearless leader says its a Chinese plot !

It will be addressed after the current administration is gone.

 

[goinfraftw]

WHY ?
Our fearless leader says its a Chinese plot !

It will be addressed after the current administration is gone.

Well, it's about trends to me - for example, think the opportunities in India with Ola (i.e. ridesharing) and electric rikshas (already being produced out by current/new manufacturers) is greater now (and much more permanent in innovation occuring because of climate events). Also, it's something worthwhile for Tesla to get involved in (even though it goes against national interests to make everything in-country). Love Modi as a leader in India, but I wonder what activities and strategies Tesla can do to help spur emissions in India while still helping the country's national interests.

Riksha's primer: Auto rickshaw - Wikipedia
Top 10 e-rikshas: Top 10 e-rickshaw Manufacturers in India 2019
Battery swapping: India Goes Electric With Battery-Swapping Rickshaws

Much like what they're doing in China with having a specially made car for the region, think there's many countries that have a different feel and look for their tastes. Further, their needs, based on cultural and environmental needs, may change depending on how climate changes as well per country. Musk has talked about a mini-version Tesla vehicle in the past (which we haven't heard much of lately):

Tesla is working on a 'Tesla mini-car', says Elon Musk - Electrek

 

[Ocelot]

Well, might as well put this here.


1. If anyone thinks Tesla/Elon cares at all about the share price, they have not been paying attention for the last decade or so.
2. Elon cares about raising enough money to go to another planet. That is his vision. Elon probably cares about this as...
3. Last year the Amazon rain forest, emitted more carbon than it took in. This equals more than all US traffic combined.
4. some scientists think , we have passed the point of no return. we have fallen over the cliff. the planet will continue to heat. the ocean ecosystem, and subsequently the earths will collapse.
5. . we are in the sixth great extinction, right now ( i know, hard to believe when standing in line at Costco).
6. estimates say we lose 100 species PER DAY.
7. remember grade 5 science- the 'web' of life. we are dependent on other organisms for survival. without them, there will be widespread famine, drought, and a collapse of life as we know it.
8. money will be worthless in probably our kids lifetimes. Not grandkids. our kids.

so getting back to investing in climate change. to me the question, is where to buy/invest in some land, and become a "50 year prepper" that might, just might give my kids another few years of food/water/shelter that is a least a bit removed for the utter chaos that likely is coming.

 

[ggr]

3. Last year the Amazon rain forest, emitted more carbon than it took in. This equals more than all US traffic combined.

Well, really, humans in the Amazon basin emitted more carbon dioxide by burning what used to be rainforest. :-(

 

[goinfraftw]

Well, might as well put this here.


1. If anyone thinks Tesla/Elon cares at all about the share price, they have not been paying attention for the last decade or so.
2. Elon cares about raising enough money to go to another planet. That is his vision. Elon probably cares about this as...
3. Last year the Amazon rain forest, emitted more carbon than it took in. This equals more than all US traffic combined.
4. some scientists think , we have passed the point of no return. we have fallen over the cliff. the planet will continue to heat. the ocean ecosystem, and subsequently the earths will collapse.
5. . we are in the sixth great extinction, right now ( i know, hard to believe when standing in line at Costco).
6. estimates say we lose 100 species PER DAY.
7. remember grade 5 science- the 'web' of life. we are dependent on other organisms for survival. without them, there will be widespread famine, drought, and a collapse of life as we know it.
8. money will be worthless in probably our kids lifetimes. Not grandkids. our kids.

so getting back to investing in climate change. to me the question, is where to buy/invest in some land, and become a "50 year prepper" that might, just might give my kids another few years of food/water/shelter that is a least a bit removed for the utter chaos that likely is coming.

It's easy to be cynical when you see trends well. Though, I think it's more useful to work towards improving things that may seem dire, if nothing's changed (e.g. null hypothesis is EV and Electrification not happening). It's probably best to work off of the null hypothesis in order to continue forcing the issue, at hand, of climate change IMO. Then, make recommendations to improve off of it. That's why I created this topic in the first place. Thanks.

 

[Ocelot]

It's easy to be cynical when you see trends well. Though, I think it's more useful to work towards improving things that may seem dire, if nothing's changed (e.g. null hypothesis is EV and Electrification not happening). It's probably best to work off of the null hypothesis in order to continue forcing the issue, at hand, of climate change IMO. Then, make recommendations to improve off of it. That's why I created this topic in the first place. Thanks.

Sorry. Was not tying to be cynical. Was trying to be factual. Cynicism involves belief, or disregard for the norm. What I stated was factual, evidenced based. I actually agree things seem more dire than dead, but truly dire is now the defacto optimistic viewpoint on climate change. Does not mean I won’t do what I can, but I am of the strong belief, we need laws governing the actions of corporations and individuals to stop what is happening. Laws that need enactment NOW. Immediately. It’s a crisis unfolding before our eyes, yet it’s business as usual. In war governments have drafted people to fight, and have a significant chance of dying. So why are we so scared to disrupt the business norm with harsh laws and major shifts? People would survive as long as programs were put into place to endure these mass shifts, providing those with unemployment food, and shelter. Would that be more than the cost of war? Even if it was who cares. You can’t eat money.


So as said if you want to profit off that, the opportunity arises to build a bio dome that is its own self supporting ecosystem. Who says you need mars to do that?

 

[goinfraftw]

Sorry. Was not tying to be cynical. Was trying to be factual.

Well, thanks for trying!

 

[UrsS]

Listen to Greta Thunberg:

Greta Thunberg addressing the British Parliament (excerpts):

My name is Greta Thunberg. I am 16 years old. I come from Sweden. And I speak on behalf of future generations. I know many of you don’t want to listen to us — you say we are just children. But we’re only repeating the message of the united climate science.

Now we probably don’t even have a future any more. Because that future was sold so that a small number of people could make unimaginable amounts of money. It was stolen from us every time you said that the sky was the limit, and that you only live once.

You lied to us. You gave us false hope. You told us that the future was something to look forward to. And the saddest thing is that most children are not even aware of the fate that awaits us. We will not understand it until it’s too late. And yet we are the lucky ones. Those who will be affected the hardest are already suffering the consequences. But their voices are not heard.

During the last six months I have traveled around Europe for hundreds of hours in trains, electric cars and buses, repeating these life-changing words over and over again. But no one seems to be talking about it, and nothing has changed. In fact, the emissions are still rising.

When I have been traveling around to speak in different countries, I am always offered help to write about the specific climate policies in specific countries. But that is not really necessary. Because the basic problem is the same everywhere. And the basic problem is that basically nothing is being done to halt – or even slow – climate and ecological breakdown, despite all the beautiful words and promises.

But perhaps the most dangerous misconception about the climate crisis is that we have to “lower” our emissions. Because that is far from enough. Our emissions have to stop if we are to stay below 1.5-2º C of warming. The “lowering of emissions” is of course necessary but it is only the beginning of a fast process that must lead to a stop within a couple of decades, or less. And by “stop” I mean net zero — and then quickly on to negative figures. That rules out most of today’s politics.

The fact that we are speaking of “lowering” instead of “stopping” emissions is perhaps the greatest force behind the continuing business as usual. The UK’s active current support of new exploitation of fossil fuels — for example, the UK shale gas fracking industry, the expansion of its North Sea oil and gas fields, the expansion of airports as well as the planning permission for a brand new coal mine — is beyond absurd."

“So, exactly how do we solve that?” you ask us — the schoolchildren striking for the climate. And we say, “No one knows for sure. But we have to stop burning fossil fuels and restore nature and many other things that we may not have quite figured out yet.

Then you say: “That’s not an answer!” So we say: “We have to start treating the crisis like a crisis — and act even if we don’t have all the solutions.

“That’s still not an answer,” you say. Then we start talking about circular economy and rewilding nature and the need for a just transition. Then you don’t understand what we are talking about.

We say that all those solutions needed are not known to anyone and therefore we must unite behind the science and find them together along the way. But you do not listen to that. Because those answers are for solving a crisis that most of you don’t even fully understand. Or don’t want to understand.

We children are doing this to wake the adults up. We children are doing this for you to put your differences aside and start acting as you would in a crisis. We children are doing this because we want our hopes and dreams back.

I hope my microphone was on. I hope you could all hear me.

 

[goinfraftw]

Well, looks like another event is being reported in the news:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...and-ice-sheet-have-seen-record-june-ice-loss/
...and twitter: Eric Holthaus on Twitter

Greenland's obviously not a huge market for Tesla, but will the rising sea levels affect shipping and logistics at all?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The eye of #Dorian viewed from onboard NOAA Hurricane Hunters WP-3. Dorian is now the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 85 years (2nd strongest hurricane on record):

Parts of Florida is being evacuated right now. The entire coastlines of Georgia and South Carolina will be evacuated starting at noon tomorrow. This scale of interruption of peoples lives and the economy will only become more frequent as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue their inexorable rise over the coming decades.

Much of this damage is baked in to our future, due to inertial in the climate system. C02 we emit today will not be fully felt as climate impacts for 20 years or more. When we fight to limit climate change, we are fighting to keep things from getting worse after 2040. Til then, its already out of our hands. Those choices were made by Clinton, Bush Jr, and by the entire 1st World collectively who decided that action on the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 wasn't 'urgent'.

FACEPALM.

Let's not make things worse for the people of 2040.

 

[Paracelsus]

The Fossil Fuel divestment movement has grown rapidly despite an almost complete lack of coverage by US media, and is now accelerating into the September 20th Global Climate Strike and summit in Cape Town.


"Ahead of an historic summit in Cape Town this week and the global climate strike planned for Sept. 20, the environmental group 350.org announced Monday that the international movement demanding divestment from fossil fuels and investment in clean energy had secured commitments from more than 1,110 institutions with over $11 trillion in assets.........................
.........What began as a moral call to action by students is now a mainstream financial response to growing climate risk to portfolios, the people, and the planet," the report explains. "Assets committed to divestment have leapt from $52 billion in 2014 to more than $11 trillion today—a stunning increase of 22,000 percent."

'People Power Is Winning': Fossil Fuel Divestment Movement Celebrates $11 Trillion Milestone


And as a result we are now finally seeing people vote with their investments on industries other than fossil fuels, such as Big Agriculture and the meat industries that are believed to have an almost similar Carbon Footprint on the planet as fossil fuels..........and the fires across the Amazon and Africa have further intensified this 'divestment focus' in an effort to improve the sustainability of our Planet. For instance, the following fund tracking the US Vegan Climate Index is scheduled to hit NYSE today -


"U.S.-based investment advisor, Beyond Investing is soon going to provide a brand-new investment option to activists protecting the planet, primarily animals, from being exploited for commercial gains. Set to hit the New York Stock Exchange on Sep 10, the US Vegan Climate ETF (VEGN) will be the first of its kind globally. The fund has been developed by Beyond Investing’s team of experienced vegan finance professionals in the United States, Switzerland and the U.K.

VEGN in a Nutshell

The fund will track the US Vegan Climate Index introduced by Beyond Investing last June. The fund charges a fee of 60 basis points, basically for the large amount of research that is needed to construct the index. The index considers the constituents of the Solactive US Large Cap Index that is made up of roughly 500 of the largest U.S.-listed companies.

Notably, the index screens and removes companies that derive more than 'a de minimis proportion' of their total revenue from activities that involve exploitation of animals or humans, largely the planet, for commercial gains. In fact, companies involved in animal testing, animal-derived products, animal farming, use of animals in sports, entertainment and R&D purposes can’t be part of the index.

Companies selling tobacco products, armaments and products specifically developed for military and defense usages along with companies involved in extracting or refining, or services majorly related to the extraction or refining, of fossil fuels, burning of fossil fuels for energy production are mostly subject to the above criterion to be part of the US Vegan Climate Index......................."

US Vegan Climate ETF (VEGN) to Hit US Market in September

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Does anyone know of anything like a Clean S&P 500 fund? Basically the S&P 500 but without the oil companies or anything in it. I would really like to move all my money into those types of funds.

 

[ggr]

I'm on the board of a non-profit, and we looked into Socially Responsible Investing. (I was on the research committee too.) Here is an excerpt of the resulting report, and we did move our investments over.

We unanimously recommend moving our US stock (currently targeted at 45% of our long term reserves) from VTSAX (Vanguard Total (US) Stock Market Index) to VFTSX (Vanguard FTSE Social Index Fund Investor Shares).

“This low-cost fund seeks to track a benchmark of large- and mid-capitalization stocks that have been screened for certain social, human rights, and environmental criteria. In addition to stock market volatility, one of the fund’s other key risks is that this socially conscious approach may produce returns that diverge from those of the broad market.”

This fund has actually outperformed our existing fund by a small amount for the last 8 years. It is a basket of 437 major US mid- and large-cap stocks, so it meets the requirements above. Being a Vanguard fund it is also extremely easy to move funds and manage.

 

[adiggs]

Does anyone know of anything like a Clean S&P 500 fund? Basically the S&P 500 but without the oil companies or anything in it. I would really like to move all my money into those types of funds.

The ticker symbol you're looking for is SPYX. It's an S&P 500 index fund, minus the companies that carry hydrocarbon reserves on their balance sheets. So it still includes oil services companies (is my understanding), but coal, oil, gas companies are excluded.

It's at least one option for simple index investing, minus the hydrocarbons.

 

[wipster]

Sure, reducing my life by 1 or 2 percent is a factor.
But reducing the grandkids lives by 10 or 20 percent is a bigger factor.
Reducing the opportunity of their children to inherit a planet which supports them, to nil, is a bigger factor still.
Air pollution direct health effects is the lesser factor than the enhanced greenhouse effect + ocean acidification, *mathmatically*. By a lot.

OT (slightly)
Stated on Maher Overtime recently by Neil Degrasse Tyson: if Greenland and Antarctica were to melt, the sea level would rise to the elbow of the Statue of Liberty... there was a collective gasp that was quite audible.

Should be heard around the world daily...

 

[NakedLong]

OT (slightly)
Stated on Maher Overtime recently by Neil Degrasse Tyson: if Greenland and Antarctica were to melt, the sea level would rise to the elbow of the Statue of Liberty... there was a collective gasp that was quite audible.

Should be heard around the world daily...

So what is the timeframe for Greenland and Antartica melting? (Most people have very little appreciation for climate change numbers and risks, unless they read IPCC reports or other scientific papers)

 

[Fact Checking]

So what is the timeframe for Greenland and Antartica melting? (Most people have very little appreciation for climate change numbers and risks, unless they read IPCC reports or other scientific papers)

Both the time frame and the reversibility are unclear. Best case scenario: thousands of years. Worst-case non-linear avalanche scenario: a significant part of Florida underwater within a few decades. The IPCC report doesn't include the worst-case scenarios ...

To make matters worse, climate science funding was cut and sabotaged significantly in the U.S. by the climate criminals, which underfunding is disrupting data collection and is making the quality of climate predictions worse.

I.e. we are playing Russian Roulette with our only habitable planet, and the climate criminals are calling the shots in the U.S., just to gain a few more years of illicit, blood soaked oil and coal profits...

 

[NakedLong]

Both the time frame and the reversibility are unclear. Best case scenario: thousands of years. Worst-case non-linear avalanche scenario: a significant part of Florida underwater within a few decades. The IPCC report doesn't include the worst-case scenarios ...

To make matters worse, climate science funding was cut and sabotaged significantly in the U.S. by the climate criminals, which underfunding is disrupting data collection and is making the quality of climate predictions worse.

I.e. we are playing Russian Roulette with our only habitable planet, and the climate criminals are calling the shots in the U.S., just to gain a few more years of illicit, blood soaked oil and coal profits...

Have you read the recent draft IPCC report - Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate? I skimmed through it looking at Antartica because in AR5 they said Antartica was gaining mass and now research says it is losing mass.

Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate — Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Roughly you can expect 0.43m for RPC2.6 and 0.84m for RPC8.5 by 2100, but with confidence bounds for each estimate, but you get a rough idea. (page 6 has a good graph of projections)

From the summary:

Melting ice, rising seas Glaciers and ice sheets in polar and mountain regions are losing mass, contributing to an increasing rate of sea level rise, together with expansion of the warmer ocean. While sea level has risen globally by around 15 cm during the 20th century, it is currently rising more than twice as fast – 3.6 mm per year – and accelerating, the report showed. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. It could reach around 30-60 cm by 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced and global warming is limited to well below 2°C, but around 60-110 cm if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase strongly. “In recent decades the rate of sea level rise has accelerated, due to growing water inputs from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, in addition to the contribution of meltwater from glaciers and - 3 - the expansion of warmer sea waters,” said Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I. “This new assessment has also revised upwards the projected contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise by 2100 in the case of high emissions of greenhouse gases,” she said. “The wide range of sea level projections for 2100 and beyond is related to how ice sheets will react to warming, especially in Antarctica, with major uncertainties still remaining.”

-----

So clearly there are lots of uncertainties, but if you think that by 2100 the sea level will rise more than the order of 1m then you are in disagreement with GCMs and the scientific consensus. I don't know how much Florida will be affected by 1m rise - it is low lying right?

Anyway, I don't want to debate such an off-topic thing, so much as encourage everyone to actually read the IPCC reports which are the best summaries available for climate change. A lot of work goes into them and they give you a much better appreciation for climate change and the numbers than just reading news which probably everyone here knows is full of sensationalism, clickbait, misinformation and bias.

 

[WarpedOne]

@NakedLong:
Wikipedia:

For the last 7k years the sea has been constantly on the rise.
Before that rising was even faster.
1 m in 100 years is nothing unprecedented, historical view lacks the resolution.