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Climate facts to warm to
- Thread starter tonybelding
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Climate-change politics: The sceptic meets his match : Nature News
Dude was a member of the Sierra Club?!?
Dude was a member of the Sierra Club?!?
I guess trying to convince scientists to lie or go against all present scientific evidence is stressful too:
"Sitting down for a quiet moment during the conference — because of stress-related health problems, he no longer manages the entire affair — Bast temporarily lets his guard down and acknowledges his movement's failure to win over mainstream climate scientists."
Coal's share of US electricity generation falls below 40% at end of 2011 3/12/2012 9:51 AM ET
Coal's share of monthly electricity generation in the U.S. fell below 40% in November and December 2011 as mild weather and cost-competitive natural gas reduced demand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Coal remains the most dominant fuel for electricity generation in the country. But an extremely mild winter and depressed natural gas prices brought about by the boom in shale gas development cut coal demand by electric utilities, many of which are sitting on large coal stockpiles of their own.
On March 9, the EIA reported that total electricity generation was down 7% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. Despite the decline, generation from natural gas increased 12%, to 86 TWh, the EIA said, while coal-fired generation fell 21%, to 132 TWh.
"Natural gas prices have dropped significantly this winter, leading the generators in some states (such as Ohio and Pennsylvania) to significantly increase the share of natural gas-fired generation," the EIA said. "Natural gas combined-cycle units operate at higher efficiency than do older, coal-fired units, which increases the competitiveness of natural gas relative to coal."
Longer-term, the EIA forecasts that coal will remain below 40% in electricity generation share. In January, the EIA predicted that coal's share of total domestic electricity generation will drop to 39% by 2035 as a result of slow growth in electricity demand, continued competition from natural gas and renewables, and new environmental regulation. The agency said it expects electricity consumption to grow just 23% over the projection period as the annual rate of growth slows to 0.8% and more demand is met with natural gas and renewables.
Coal's share of electricity generation has dropped from nearly 50% in 2007 to 45% in 2010, according to the EIA.
Coal's share of monthly electricity generation in the U.S. fell below 40% in November and December 2011 as mild weather and cost-competitive natural gas reduced demand, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Coal remains the most dominant fuel for electricity generation in the country. But an extremely mild winter and depressed natural gas prices brought about by the boom in shale gas development cut coal demand by electric utilities, many of which are sitting on large coal stockpiles of their own.
On March 9, the EIA reported that total electricity generation was down 7% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. Despite the decline, generation from natural gas increased 12%, to 86 TWh, the EIA said, while coal-fired generation fell 21%, to 132 TWh.
"Natural gas prices have dropped significantly this winter, leading the generators in some states (such as Ohio and Pennsylvania) to significantly increase the share of natural gas-fired generation," the EIA said. "Natural gas combined-cycle units operate at higher efficiency than do older, coal-fired units, which increases the competitiveness of natural gas relative to coal."
Longer-term, the EIA forecasts that coal will remain below 40% in electricity generation share. In January, the EIA predicted that coal's share of total domestic electricity generation will drop to 39% by 2035 as a result of slow growth in electricity demand, continued competition from natural gas and renewables, and new environmental regulation. The agency said it expects electricity consumption to grow just 23% over the projection period as the annual rate of growth slows to 0.8% and more demand is met with natural gas and renewables.
Coal's share of electricity generation has dropped from nearly 50% in 2007 to 45% in 2010, according to the EIA.
Interesting. 50% in 2007, 45% in 2010, less than 40% in 2011, and the projection for 2035 is 39%. It seemes to me that "less than 40" is pretty close to 39 already, and coal's best hope, IGCC plants, are currently plagued with massive cost overruns (reminds me of Nuclear).
I'll stick my neck out and predict "less than 39%" in 2035.
GSP
I'll stick my neck out and predict "less than 39%" in 2035.
GSP
Note that that 40% was just for Nov. & Dec., which are not peak-demand periods (especially with the warm winter we've had). On an annual basis, 42.2% of US electricity came from coal.
Annual data:
The <40% headline came because, as far back as the data go, we've never gotten below 40% in any month. Until 2011, we'd never gotten below 42%. Old King Coal is being eased off his throne.
Annual data:
| Year | US Coal % |
| 1997 | 52.8 |
| 1998 | 51.8 |
| 1999 | 50.9 |
| 2000 | 51.7 |
| 2001 | 51.0 |
| 2002 | 50.1 |
| 2003 | 50.8 |
| 2004 | 49.8 |
| 2005 | 49.6 |
| 2006 | 49.0 |
| 2007 | 48.5 |
| 2008 | 48.2 |
| 2009 | 44.4 |
| 2010 | 44.8 |
| 2011 | 42.2 |
Our mild winter and early spring is direct a result of the jet stream (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream) staying further north this year from where it usually is which closer to our border with the US.
This unusual warmth is not caused by global warming but what remains to be seen is whether or not the changes in our global climate have affected the trajectory of the jet stream across North America.
No kidding. It's been summer temperatures here in Ottawa all week, never mind spring! We got over 27C yesterday - that's into the 80's for you Americans. Normally the highs here should be just above freezing.
I've had the top off my Roadster the whole week, except I'll have to put it on this afternoon because we have thunderstorms (not blizzards!) coming.
Thanks to this bizarre weather and the Roadster... I noticed something truly weird last night...
it's March...
I haven't left the country...
and I have a sun tan.
Jetstreams going further north were certainly one of the predictions from 10 years ago that I recall.
I think you are oversimplifying the whole issue and if you want to make people understand the importance of paying closer attention to climate change, you do not point to every deviance from the normal weather pattern as being attributed to global warming. Especially if it could be considered to be within the normal variance of what is possible (i.e. the jet stream’s trajectory has quite a wide variance if you look at it over several years). I do believe that we are experiencing the effects of climate change caused in part due to human activity but to say that a change in the jet stream's trajectory, such as that which we are seeing this year, is an abnormal event in the grand scheme of things is only seeing what you want to see without looking at it for what it could possibly be; a part of the natural cycle. I don't know that the jet stream's change was a direct result of climate change but I do know that extremities of weather (i.e. beyond the average weather patterns for a region) have been happening for longer than humans have been doing their part to influence it. This year’s trajectory is not seen often but does not mean that it is not normal.
When the preponderance of the evidence points to a linkage between human activity and climate variation, the burden of proof shifts to those who believe that the grand experiment we've been conducting--releasing vast quantities of locked-up carbon into the atmosphere--is safe. I believe we've crossed that evidentiary boundary.
Yes I do. One could understand me posting that message in this thread as a statement "This year, the jet stream shifted - look, that was caused by global warming".
I am full aware that this is plain wrong. No extreme weather event can be attributed to global warming. Not a single one. But the accumulation of events, as they form "the climate".
The problem is most people can't tell the difference between weather and climate, hence the comparison to water drops and rain.
I found a quote from the abstract to an article (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1452.html) which explains more clearly part of how i feel about this topic ...
IMHO the issue we currently face is with trying to convince the policymakers (and general public) that are resisting the acceptance that climate change is real using "its plausible based on observed trends".
I have found other articles that demonstrate that plausibility based on observations as it relates to the jet stream but until we can show without a doubt that the world is not flat there will always be people (and some in a position to affect policy decisions) who still believe that it is.
http://planetsave.com/2008/04/21/jet-stream-changes-due-to-global-warming/
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-04/ci-cjs041608.php
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1065.html
IMHO the issue we currently face is with trying to convince the policymakers (and general public) that are resisting the acceptance that climate change is real using "its plausible based on observed trends".
I have found other articles that demonstrate that plausibility based on observations as it relates to the jet stream but until we can show without a doubt that the world is not flat there will always be people (and some in a position to affect policy decisions) who still believe that it is.
http://planetsave.com/2008/04/21/jet-stream-changes-due-to-global-warming/
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-04/ci-cjs041608.php
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1065.html
There was a really interesting Horizon on TV tonight: BBC Two - Horizon, 2011-2012, Global Weirding
It was a very clear and slightly disconcerting review of all the effects that are going on with the increasingly extreme weather, without the artificial "balance" that has plagued a lot of these documentaries of late.
Well worth watching on iPlayer or catching a repeat if you have the means.
It was a very clear and slightly disconcerting review of all the effects that are going on with the increasingly extreme weather, without the artificial "balance" that has plagued a lot of these documentaries of late.
Well worth watching on iPlayer or catching a repeat if you have the means.
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