Also how much new renewable energy was produced in the last year?
How long til the new renewable energy production per year matches the
2.2% pa growth in total eletricity production? Is it 2,5 or 25yrs away?
I would consider that to be a major milestone (no more new coal plants)
An interesting statistic to consider is what types of new power projects are coming online each year. I have seen media reports that in the past few years Wind energy projects account for about 1/3 of new capacity being brought online each year.
U.S. has a whopping 25,170 megawatts (MW) of installed wind-turbine capacity, enough to electrify 6 million homes. Now under construction is 4,451 MW of new capacity, a 17.7% increase. This has declined because many projects were rushed to completion at the end of 2008 because of expiring tax credits for wind. Those tax credits were extended recently.
(Wind projects by state)
AWEA - Projects
For example, in 2008, the U.S. wind-electric industry broke all previous records by installing 8,300 megawatts (MW) of new generating capacity, enough to supply nearly 2 million homes. This represents an enormous increase for one year alone; it raised the total U.S. wind power generating capacity by 32 percent, creating nearly $17 billion of investment.
The amount that the U.S. industry brought online in the 4th quarter of 2008 alone - 4,112 MW - exceeded annual additions for every previous year except 2007.
With all of that data in mind, I am optimistic that Wind energy will ultimately (in 15 to 20 yeras) provide 20% to 30% of our electric grid. It will be difficult for wind to provide a larger share than that because of the issues of wind reliability not being stable enough to balance the demands of the grid.
I am also investing long term in a few solar power technologies. From the data I have read, it appears that solar energy could provide about 10% to 20% of our total grid electricity. But it is tiny now. The 30% tax credits are now in place for 8 years. So it really is starting to make sense to install a solar system on your house. The great thing about solar is that solar panels typically provide their maximum energy during time periods of maximum demand. So they are meeting our energy demand during the most expensive peak period of the day.
So if wind can provide 20% to 30% and solar can provide 10% to 20%. That leaves a huge gap to be filled. Frankly I think we have to serious consider nuclear for baseload energy. France gets almost 80% of their grid from nuclear energy. We need to consider a national goal of 50%. We currently obtain about 20% of our grid from nuclear (103 nuclear reactors).
In my opinion, our grid would look something like this:
Wind 25%
Solar 15%
Nuclear 50%
Hydro 10%
And a bunch of EVs and PHEVs using the grid at night to recharge.
