IMHO, the vast majority of the increase results from the heating of the battery. The main evidence for this is that turning off the heat (for the cabin) makes a big difference in consumption. If we could turn off the heat to the battery (not a good idea to do routinely) I believe the difference would hardly be noticeable. Why do you claim "there is no heater for the battery in the car." There certainly is!
Are you able to prewarm your car for your return trip? Is that part of the trip included in your data? If you don't prewarm, my experience is that a huge amount of energy comes from the battery initially (or from the wall if you do prewarm). Even when you do prewarm, the car must still be maintained at a livable temperature of the battery, if not yourself, and the battery is out in the cold compared with the passengers, so it is significant.
The air conditioning load is minor compared with heating because the Model S uses a heat pump for that, but amazingly not for heating, so all heat is wastefully generated using resistance strips, one for the battery and one for the cabin. Tesla should make this easy fix, since knowing that your range is strongly temperature dependent, to an unknown degree, is the biggest single cause of range anxiety. Data such as you show here is a significant aid to reducing uncertainty, and hence anxiety, so thanks! However, keep in mind that you are not allowed to interfere with the management of the battery in a safe and healthy temperature range.