Russia’s passive-aggressive reaction to SpaceX may mask a deeper truth
Some interesting commentary from “Vadim Lukashevich, a Russian-based space expert. He was fired from an aerospace think tank at Skolkovo in 2015 after writing articles opposing the transformation of Roscosmos from a government agency into a state corporation. On Monday, he gave an interview to Russian television station Moscow 24, which was published
on YouTube and translated for Ars by Robinson Mitchell.”
Quotes from Lukashevich (pointing out what we all already know): “With this launch... this private company SpaceX has made Roscosmos null and void...if we compare the ships on a technological level, our Soyuz is in principle unable to compete with the SpaceX’s Crew Dragon...Elon Musk has built the ship of the future. It’s a seven-place spacecraft. It is re-usable. It is new technology. Accordingly, it beats Soyuz according to every parameter, by every technological indicator...”
And the most telling: “...we [Russia] were carrying astronauts, we were getting basically for free $400 million a year at about $90 million per seat for each foreign astronaut. That is more than the entire cost of the rocket and the ship and launch operations taken together. This means as long as we had at least one foreign astronaut on board, we were launching for free. For us this wasn’t just a freebie—it was a narcotic. It allowed us to do absolutely nothing and still earn money. And now, this narcotic is going to be cut off, and we will be forced to do something. Either we will pass into history along with all of our space achievements, like Portugal, with its discovery of America and the voyages of Magellan and so forth, or we will have to seriously do something.’
While Lukashevich acts like Russia has a choice, in fact it does not. Russia simply does not have the money to develop a new, reusable spacecraft and rocket. Putin continues to promise Russians a better standard of living, and constantly hypes a range of incredible new military weapons that are likely mostly just very expensive fantasies. The Russian economy is built on oil and gas sales which is an unsustainable foundation, and they don’t seem to be able to diversify. Russia doesn’t manufacture anything of significance that the rest of the world wants to buy.
The Russian space program is like a zombie, shuffling along looking for customers, but the customers aren’t there.