Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) SpaceX and Boeing Developments

[Grendal]

Starliner's launch date has slipped a year to September 2018 due development delays:

Starliner’s first complete hull mated at Kennedy; crew launch delayed to 2018 | NASASpaceFlight.com

SpaceX's timetable also slipped from late 2016 to 2017. That was because of the CRS-7 failure though. SpaceX development is tracking well.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Thanks for the post!

I'm a little confused by the article. The original design for the Starliner was the Challenger space shuttle?

 

[ggr]

Thanks for the post!

I'm a little confused by the article. The original design for the Starliner was the Challenger space shuttle?

I think you misunderstood. STA just means a test article that is the same size and shape etc. as the real thing, so that you can test tooling and handling procedures. There was an STA for the space shuttle series, and that STA eventually was re-manufactured to become Challenger.

Now there's an STA for the Starliner. But the design dates back more to Apollo than the Space Shuttle.

(I guess I can talk now: on a visit to Fremont about a year ago, I saw a rough cardboard mock-up of a Model X that they used to make sure it would go around all the bends of the production line without hitting anything. Sort of a low-tech STA.)

 

[GoTslaGo]

Thanks! That makes more sense!

 

[glhs272]

Disappointing... Looks like we will be seeing more $$$ going to Soyuz flights. Nothing against the Russians, but it would be nice to see the US going back to a barter arrangement (we fly a Russian Cosmonaut on one flight, they fly a US astronaut on Soyuz). Until we get to direct handover anyway, if that ever happens. That would require two US vehicles docked simultaneously.

On a side note, there were rumors of SpaceX or Boeing objecting to flying Russian cosmonauts on their vehicles. I think NASA should put it's foot down and make them fly cosmonauts. Anything less would be an unprovoked snub to the other ISS partners (Russia) who have been single handedly keeping the ISS manned for the last 5 years.

 

[Grendal]

Disappointing... Looks like we will be seeing more $$$ going to Soyuz flights. Nothing against the Russians, but it would be nice to see the US going back to a barter arrangement (we fly a Russian Cosmonaut on one flight, they fly a US astronaut on Soyuz). Until we get to direct handover anyway, if that ever happens. That would require two US vehicles docked simultaneously.

On a side note, there were rumors of SpaceX or Boeing objecting to flying Russian cosmonauts on their vehicles. I think NASA should put it's foot down and make them fly cosmonauts. Anything less would be an unprovoked snub to the other ISS partners (Russia) who have been single handedly keeping the ISS manned for the last 5 years.

NASA has contracted through 2019 for Soyuz flights. They anticipated delays and did not want to get stuck with no way of getting someone up there.

The Russian government might be acting badly but that does not change the fact that they have been very good in this area and in selling boosters to ULA and other American companies. So I agree that their cosmonauts should get rides as needed.

 

[Nikxice]

From a SpaceX perspective, this news is far from disappointing. In this post Space Shuttle era, the first U. S. company to put an American crew in orbit will and receive a lots of press and goodwill. Even more so if that company turns out to be the upstart SpaceX instead of the old guard Boeing. I'm sure none of this is lost on an extremely competitive Elon Musk.

 

[Grendal]

A lot of new news on the Commercial Crew Development:

SpaceX discusses progress toward human missions of Dragon/Falcon 9 | NASASpaceFlight.com

The article gives a lot of detail on the process and steps it takes to get fully rated.

There is also a picture of a very cool looking spacesuit. This might be the first glimpse of SpaceX's spacesuit.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Guess I'm not going into space anytime soon. That spacesuit is way TOO skinny!

 

[Grendal]

And SpaceX gets official word that they are a "go."

NASA orders first crewed SpaceX mission to ISS -

SpaceX still must meet their milestones. NASA appears to be assuming that all will go well and SpaceX is showing the proper pacing for the future launch.

 

[oneday]

And SpaceX gets official word that they are a "go."

NASA orders first crewed SpaceX mission to ISS -

SpaceX still must meet their milestones. NASA appears to be assuming that all will go well and SpaceX is showing the proper pacing for the future launch.

From that article, "In September 2014, NASA signed a $2.6 billion contract with SpaceX and a $4.2 billion contract with Boeing to transport astronauts to the ISS starting in late 2017."

I'm curious if anyone can enlighten me as to why the Boeing contract is more than 50% larger than SpaceX's?

 

[ecarfan]

I'm curious if anyone can enlighten me as to why the Boeing contract is more than 50% larger than SpaceX's?

Because NASA wanted more than one company to rely on to deliver cargo to the ISS, Boeing said it could do it but it would cost $4.2 billion, and Boeing has powerful supporters in Washington DC.

 

[Grendal]

From that article, "In September 2014, NASA signed a $2.6 billion contract with SpaceX and a $4.2 billion contract with Boeing to transport astronauts to the ISS starting in late 2017."

I'm curious if anyone can enlighten me as to why the Boeing contract is more than 50% larger than SpaceX's?

It's what SpaceX and Boeing requested. This is just proof that SpaceX is a lot less expensive than an old school contractor. It should be noted that both companies are doing the exact same things for the contracted amounts. SpaceX is just that much less expensive than Boeing.

Because NASA wanted more than one company to rely on to deliver cargo to the ISS, Boeing said it could do it but it would cost $4.2 billion, and Boeing has powerful supporters in Washington DC.

Ha. Beat me to it. Though we do have slightly different information.

 

[oneday]

Got it. I figured as much...

 

[Grendal]

Here is a listing of both SpaceX and Boeing milestones and their projected dates from May 2016:

And shout out to Patrick who posted about this:

NASA orders second SpaceX crew ferry ship – Spaceflight Now

 

[ecarfan]

Thanks Grendal. So based on that chart, it appears that SpaceX is way ahead of Boeing in getting people to the ISS, correct? It shows SpaceX doing the first crewed flight to the ISS in August 2017. I don't see anything like that in the Boeing Milestones shown. Am I missing it amidst that sea of acronyms?

 

[adiggs]

I followed through the required milestones in the chart - those are the ones that appear to be in common between the two.

Looks like Boeing / ULA gets to DCR (dunno what that is) first by 3 months.

Then Boeing is about 8-10 months behind on the remaining 3 required milestones.


Somebody's posted an article awhile back where even the article was skeptical of ULA milestones and plan for getting crewed travel into space. People in the comments were brutal, with numerous commenters saying something like "just because you wrote it down in a plan, doesn't mean it's going to happen". While the SpaceX plan looks at least vaguely feasible, the ULA plan looked to numerous of those commenters like something that will slip years (instead of months) from the scheduled plan, with a reasonable likelihood of never delivering a passenger.

Wish I had that earlier article at hand.

 

[Grendal]

 

[Grendal]

Thanks Grendal. So based on that chart, it appears that SpaceX is way ahead of Boeing in getting people to the ISS, correct? It shows SpaceX doing the first crewed flight to the ISS in August 2017. I don't see anything like that in the Boeing Milestones shown. Am I missing it amidst that sea of acronyms?

In reading comments on articles from people that seem a lot more clued in than I am, then the answer is Boeing is likely to be very late. Personally, I expect the competition from SpaceX will light a fire under them to be as close as possible to be on time. Without SpaceX, I'd expect they'd be very very late and demanding more money. The problem for Boeing is that they are making each CST-100 individually. They are using the old school communications that Dan Rasky described in his NASA/SpaceX videos which drag everything down.

From what I've read, SpaceX is making 4 Dragon 2's right now. That is two for testing, one for the unmanned mission, and one for the first demonstration crewed mission. This is not an Elon schedule. Dragon 2 will likely be delayed a few more months for the crewed mission according to most commenters but should be on time for all the rest.

 

[Grendal]

I followed through the required milestones in the chart - those are the ones that appear to be in common between the two.

Looks like Boeing / ULA gets to DCR (dunno what that is) first by 3 months.

Then Boeing is about 8-10 months behind on the remaining 3 required milestones.

Somebody's posted an article awhile back where even the article was skeptical of ULA milestones and plan for getting crewed travel into space. People in the comments were brutal, with numerous commenters saying something like "just because you wrote it down in a plan, doesn't mean it's going to happen". While the SpaceX plan looks at least vaguely feasible, the ULA plan looked to numerous of those commenters like something that will slip years (instead of months) from the scheduled plan, with a reasonable likelihood of never delivering a passenger.

SpaceX was delayed because of the CRS-7 failure. Boeing is delayed because they are slow at getting things done.

Boeing's capsule will get to the ISS. It might be delayed some more according to everything I've read, but I can't imagine them allowing an upstart launch company to show them up too much. There was an article recently about the GAO trashing Boeing's schedule.

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