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Competing technologies to BEV

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Auzie, Apr 24, 2014.

  1. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    It might be an idea to have a thread that discusses Tesla competition.

    I will start with the article on Mercedes-Benz US CEO and his uninvited criticism of Tesla.

    Mr.Cannon states that he is not really impressed with the new Tesla model. He also calls Tesla Service Centers "little stores that don't have service capability". I am surprised that he would make such a comment. If he is unaware that Tesla does not require much and often maintenance, his comment may be understandable, but is also telling about him.

    It will be interesting to see a MB rival to Model S, when it comes out.
     
  2. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Good idea for a thread...except there is no competition for Tesla yet :wink:
     
  3. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    #3 Auzie, Apr 24, 2014
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2014
    There are many verbal threats of competition, but no physical model that can threaten Tesla yet.

    Lets hope for the slow death of this thread, may it descend into oblivion.
     
  4. qwk

    qwk Model S P2681

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    This thread is about 10 years early. Every other manufacturer wants hybrids.
     
  5. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    No current competition but places to watch would include:
    BMW I series range as it's unlikely they will just stop @ the i3 and i8
    Nissan / Infinity we know Carlos Ghosn is committed to EV's so there may be something in the works
    VW group, I hear the Polo and Golf EV's are quite good and there is the Audi e-tron range. Only held back by current anti-EV management which may change.
    GM seems serious about transitioning to EV's and the Volt and ELR are good products if over priced. They have established a dedicated battery development facility.
    Mercedes B class electric drive may just be the start and the SLS electric drive was pretty amazing.
    Outside chances:
    Fiat, the 500 electric gets good reviews but the management don't have their hearts in it.
    SAAB, the new Chinese owners appear to be concentrating on electric vehicles.
    Ford may still surprise us if the emphasis of their energi range moves towards full EV's.
    There may be more
     
  6. TSLA Siempre

    TSLA Siempre Member

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    Thanks for starting this thread. I was thinking it would be a good discussion to have. I've become increasingly convinced that the automakers are not serious about EV's. It's not that they don't believe in them, but they know that it will completely destroy their competitive advantage and existing ICE business. There have been many other posts about why ICE-makers can't/won't make the switch. See DaveT's 'slow motion train wreck' post. Also, I think DaveT also had a great observation that Elon's language has changed lately in that he think's ICE-makers need significant competitive pressure (enough that they feel threatened they might go out of business) to get them to go electric. I think traditional car makers have the following options:


    1. Continue making ICE vehicles. Pray for Tesla's failure.
    2. Realize that resistance is futile and go electric.
    3. Actively assist in making Tesla fail.
    4. Diminish the advantage of EV's by trying to optimize hybrid powertrains.

    With the exception of Nissan, I believe all the major carmakers (including BMW) are unserious about EV's. I think all of them are trying a combination of options 1,3, and 4. I'm seeing option 4 becoming the most preferred strategy as efforts to derail Tesla are proving more difficult than originally imagined. I believe fuel cells are part of option 3. I also believe regulatory sabotage and other forms of sabotage are also part of option 3.

    Option 4 is a slippery slope, though, as consumers will become more accustomed to the concept of battery powered vehicles. Eventually customers will learn that they don't need the gas part. Option 4 buys the carmakers a lot of time, though, until they figure out a new strategy.

    I think this is part of the motivation of Elon wanting to go pedal to the metal for growth this year. ICE makers need to feel threatened and need to get off their rears and join the EV revolution.
     
  7. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    For an automotive CEO to be this clued out regarding the difference between the stores/galleries and the service centers is quite telling. I'd be embarrassed if I was a Mercedes employee.
     
  8. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    Hubris... Even with service centers Mercedes cars are still overpriced crap. I'll take cars designed by people who engineer rockets than engineers who can't get electrical problems solved after decades of existence.
     
  9. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    When one of them finally comes out with something that just might qualify as a Tesla fighter, somewhere a headline will read "Is this the end of the road for Tesla?"

    and we will all get a good laugh, again.
     
  10. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    A BMW 3 series EV would be a threat but don't see that happening anytime soon.
     
  11. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    I agree, and I think it is defensive annoyance, since MB has probably lost quite a few high-end sales to Tesla in the past year.
     
  12. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    #12 Auzie, Apr 24, 2014
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2014
    It is difficult for me to believe that he is clued out. My interpretation is that he is talking Tesla down in a subtle way. Regardless of whichever it is, it really got my attention, very telling.

    The change in the direction of an established business, like MB or similar, has to come from the very top, it can not come from some peripheral R&D or alternative business unit.

    It seems to me that the big car manufacturers are caught in a set up that may lead to their destruction. They are like large ships heading into rocks and lacking capability for maneuvering the safe passage out.

    Perhaps the ship captains have a conflict of interest. Their short term interest is to stay on course as the rocks are too far, it takes too much work to redirect the ship and it is too expensive and risky. If they do nothing, captains are more likely to be ok.
     
  13. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    I'd really like to see someone like Nissan give Tesla a run for their money. Nissan and Ghosn are capable of it; with a longer-range (and hopefully, better looking) Leaf 2.0, they'd undercut the E on price for sure.

    Tesla will have a huge lead on the fast charging network front though and that's as big a deal if not bigger than the car itself.

    Of course, I'm rooting for Tesla overall but, competition can only be good.
     
  14. c041v

    c041v Member

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    I'm glad this thread has come about as I had been pondering the competition question over the last couple of days. The biggest question I have right now is:

    Should a credible competitor come along, to what extent will it galvanize Tesla's place in history? I would think that a major automaker acknowledging Tesla's path to the future as the right one will pay some sort of dividend. This of course, discounting the fact that Tesla is already two steps ahead in terms of battery supply constraints, etc.

    edit: I sometimes worry that BMW/MB/Audi are secretly developing a Gen III competitor along the same timeline as Tesla, but then I realize just how many cars are sold every year, and that even if they were able to develop a compelling competitor, Gen III sales figures would still be huge given the size of the market for that type of car.
     
  15. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    VW/ Audi seems to be convinced that LiAir or some other advanced battery technology is about to happen
     
  16. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    I see no competition endangering Tesla in the next 5 years:
    - with 500.000 units, Tesla aims for 1.5% of global vehicle market. There is enough room to expand, and that room is defined by availability of charging infrastructure.
    - Tesla's supercharger network is a competitive edge on its own
    - if incumbent manufacturers manage to engineer a comparable car, they lack supply of a cost competitive battery technology. The Gigafactory will conserve this advantage.
    - Tesla has a head start. If they keep their speed and act as a small and nimble unit, it'll be really hard for the other behemoths to catch up.

    The only limit to Tesla's expansion speed is capital. The major risk is in growing the company's structures while keeping the Tesla way of doing things.
     
  17. DriverOne

    DriverOne Member

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    Then there's the Leaf, rumored to be gaining more battery, giving say 150 mile range. That's getting to useful. However, it's still a small car and so not in direct competition with the Model S, and probably not even with the Model E. Didn't Nissan add free charging too (a la Supercharger fees).

    Looking at Nissan LEAF® Electric Car Charging, I think Tesla was smart not to require a special home charger; a dryer or RV outlet is less imposing, simpler, and cheaper.
     
  18. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    A threat to what or whom? Even if a BEV BMW 3 came into existence there's not a chance it is exactly like what Tesla will produce. There will be differences in build, design, performance, look, buying and service experience etc... It would be an additional 'option' to the public, but it won't be a 'threat' to Tesla in the way that people define threat - as in the end of Tesla.
     
  19. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Not difficult for me at all. Unless he is a hands on manager like Elon, he's a professional manager and what he produces and sells is just another widget. Generally in large companies no one more than two levels above the level where work gets done has a clue about what actually happens. This is one reason why innovation seldom comes from large organizations.
     
  20. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    Capital becomes less and less an issue as time goes by. It's been reported that once Gigafactory was announced, that the offers from others to join in the venture became significantly greater, thus the delay in announcing site location and partnerships.

    The limit appears now to simply be that a company/entity/person/people can only do so much so fast. We need only consider where Tesla was last year at this time and reflect on the progress they've made. Take a moment to make a list of those changes in the last year. It's astounding.

    I do agree that there is always a risk of losing the 'magic' that made a company what it is/was when it rapidly grows. We can only hope that the foundation laid and the people involved in it at that level are able to keep everything going in the same direction.
     

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