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Concerned about weak demand

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Stealth.Pilot, Jan 22, 2013.

  1. Stealth.Pilot

    Stealth.Pilot New Member

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    It seems that the wait list is shorter than expected. When I placed my deposit on Dec 15th, I was told to expect delivery in 9-10 months, and that I should get a invitation to finalize in April. I got the invitation to finalize today 1/22 and others on the forum are saying delivery would be in Feb/March for people finalizing this week.

    any thoughts on what's going on? Weakening demand raises concern about several things in my mind - the future viability of the company, the resale value, and whether it is over priced.

    i may cancel and wait for my model x deposit to vest to see how things pan out.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Forgot to mention, I was hoping to also have until the summer to get a better read from existing owners on reliability, and on the success of the company. In one month, I have no better data on this.
     
  2. Trnsl8r

    Trnsl8r Blue 85kwh since 12/8/12

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    I think this has more to do with people waiting for 40/60kwh, non-air suspension and bright red. If you don't go for any of these options, then you will probably get it sooner than if you did. Really not realistic estimating wait time without knowing the configuration.

    You could always jump out of line to look from the sidelines, but I crossed 2000 miles today and am not looking back... :)
     
  3. artsci

    artsci Sponsor

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    I think you're being overly pessimistic. There are a whole set of factors that determine these dates, including the specifics of your order, production speed and priority, etc. I finalized a more than a month before you and won't see delivery until April or May.
     
  4. Stealth.Pilot

    Stealth.Pilot New Member

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    Yeah well it's still at odds with what the salesman told me.

    So at what point does the deposit become non refundable.

    At this point I'm still interested but would like to wait more time for:
    1) Consumer reports long term testing
    2) owners here to rack up more miles
    3) the promised center console to become available.
     
  5. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    I think your worries are completely overblown.

    But I'm not you. :)

    Think carefully about what facts you can determine. Know what you know, and know what you do not know. Most important of all, know yourself. In the end, make whatever decision fits you best and be prepared to face the consequences of being wrong (whether that means missing out on a great car, or buying a car that turns out to be not-so-great from your point of view). Asking a bunch of strangers their opinion will not help you at all.
     
  6. Trnsl8r

    Trnsl8r Blue 85kwh since 12/8/12

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    When you finalize your configuration and sign the Pre-MVPA. (Don't worry, they make it clear when the deposit becomes non-refundable.)
     
  7. Shorty

    Shorty Member

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    Well at least we seem to have passed the stage about owners complaining how long it takes to get a car. Now we have people complaining that it is too fast!

    Look at the bright side, if the company goes under soon then your car will probably be worth more!
     
  8. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    At least telling you that invitation to finalize would be in April was unfortunately the salesman not being up to date. Before you reserved Tesla had already indicated they were planning on inviting all 2012 reservations to finalize by the end of January.

    You can at least wait until their earnings Feb 11th to see what they report. After that you need to decide whether paying $2500 extra is worth it for the peace of mind of waiting.
     
  9. 100thMonkey

    100thMonkey Member

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    I can understand your trepidation, I think it's only natural to double, triple and quadruple think such a purchase. I would suggest going and taking another test drive with the list of concerns you may have if any. I did 3 test drives through Tesla and one extended drive offered by an owner of a production unit. Each test drive blew my mind more than the last. I kept going back wondering if the novelty would wear off, only to find that it had deepened, that there was yet another dimension I hadn't been able to fully take in during an earlier test drive. I have thoroughly been left with the impression that his product and this company are destined to succeed because of the level of attention paid to detail and the level of responsiveness they provide to any issues that come up, it's a winning formula.

    As far as the shortened time frame for delivery, I was originally told a year but the ramp up hadn't happened yet, and it was clear that Tesla was being wise in the way they were managing expectations, aiming to impress rather than disappoint. I personally suspect the ramp up has gone better than expected, maybe not better than projected on the outside, but there are a zillion things that can go wrong when you are trying to make every widget yourself and for the most part, Tesla has made it successfully over a very difficult hump.

    IMHO, the downside in being so ahead of the game is that it's catching people by surprise. I don't know about you but I was planning on making this purchase in cash by liquidating some assets, which take time. I figured I had a year or at least 9 months, and now it's turning out that the car may arrive before I've completed liquidating the funds. not the end of the world, I can short term finance no problem but I can see how the speeding up of production may have the unintended consequence of causing some to bow out because they aren't ready to take delivery so much earlier than planned.

    1) I wouldn't bother waiting for Consumer reports, I don't think they can tell you more than what you can find out here in the forums. honestly, forums like this are some of the harshest of critics one can find, it's pretty easy to see through the fan boys.
    2)Owners here have racked up tons of miles if you take into account the Roadster. the S is not Tesla's first car, they have a proven track record with very solid support.
    3)get in the car and drive it more, any worries about the center console and it's future will be put into perspective. I'm surprised how much I like the open space and that is, IMHO, why it's been left open, because people who have spent a lot more time with this car than you or I have noticed it's value while at the same time, realizing some will still want a console... so it's in the works.


     
  10. Jason S

    Jason S Model S Sig Perf (P85)

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    That finalize before the earning report could explain it.
     
  11. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    I think your concern about a drastically shorter wait-list is ill founded. Tesla has moved pretty far away from the notion that they are building these cars in anything remotely resembling the reservation order. They are building them in the order that they can build them most quickly because of the incredible fragility of their all new supplier network.

    Every other car manufacturer on the planet other than Tesla has a deep well of common parts and multiple suppliers to draw on to smooth out disruptions. The Model S uses only a few minor common parts (the most significant of which is the steering wheel column), and the resulting fragility can be seen in the way that virtually every car has been delivered with missing parts. Cars that have not been delivered in sequence (which is the vast majority) are likely missing parts which leave the cars unsaleable, and so they aren't being built in the first place.

    It's certainly possible that there has been a huge increase in cancellations, but that seems unlikely when the data we DO see about interest in the car (new reservations) has been so off the charts strong. Combined with the known supplier problems it takes quite a leap of faith to assume that folks on the waiting list are losing interest at the same time that interest in the general population is exploding.
     
  12. David_Cary

    David_Cary Member

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    Ok so does anyone have a rough idea of time between invitation to finalize and non-refundable state. I have a mid Dec reservation to beat the price increase. I was invited to finalize but have until 2/19. They have no idea what I want prior to the invitation. I could be looking for a 40KWH.

    Here is the big thing for me - I haven't driven the car yet but plan to in March. No way do I want to be non-refundable before that. But if the non refundable part comes 2 months before delivery, then I am fine.

    I was thinking about this before - I could easily imagine 50% cancellation rate. People might just be tired of waiting, finances change, SAF changes, Another car excites them while waiting, the maintenance agreement, the continuing press about cash flow, the price drop on the Leaf - and the serious concerns that Tesla may drop $5k also as soon as the reservations drop off......

    Just last night, my wife said she didn't think we should get solar panels in the same year as a $60k car ... and my local utility's rebate is getting scaled back soon. So financially I am world's ahead to get the panels this year and lease a Leaf.
     
  13. Brandonm

    Brandonm Member

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    It was mentioned up thread - it becomes non-refundable when you finalize your config and you sign your pre-MVPA. IE, finalize between now and 2/19 (and then become non-refundable) and keep your price lower price reservation, or wait to finalize and pay the higher price for the car.
     
  14. Shorty

    Shorty Member

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    If Tesla has 50% cancellations or major supplier issues they would have to disclose it as a material change. The stock is trading near its all time high which means that either the few people posting gossip here are right and the entire investment community is wrong about Tesla or ....?

    Why do people automatically assume the worst? Perhaps Tesla is delivering cars faster than thought because they have been able to increase production faster than thought?
     
  15. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    Why do people automatically assume anything at all?
     
  16. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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    If there was any slowdown in demand, Tesla would likely not have their workers work long shifts and through the weekends. They would take more time to perfect the production.

    All evidence points to what Elon has said before, that they don't have a demand problem.
     
  17. Jrhodesmd

    Jrhodesmd S Sig #371, X Prod #1143

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    I'm at 2500 miles and the car has only gotten better. Didn't appreciate how cool it is getting new OS updates to fix little issues with the car. IF waiting makes you comfortable then do it. I had a buddy test drive mine this morning and all he complained about was having to wait now that he is ordering one, so everyone is different. Personally it "was" a gamble but it has been a good one. Car is awesome, build quality excellent. If you are concerned enough about resale value (pretty sure I could sell mine now for more than I bought it for) and whether it is overpriced then wait. I don't worry about resale as I know buying a car is like buying food, it is perishable and will only depreciate, and given how awesome it is I won't be selling it anytime in the foreseeable future. Not sure waiting will help answer those unless you wait for years, but to each his or her own.
     
  18. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    My thoughts exactly. They announce a price increase and then indicate that you must finalize when asked in order to avoid this increase. Then they ask for all the finalize paperwork to be complete before the end of January. This is perfect information for the public earnings report to be announced in early February. I think it was well orchestrated by Tesla so they can announce FIRM numbers about production. This is important since there is so much speculation about how many reservations are going to get dropped. Now they can talk about how many they have already produced and also have solid numbers on how many they will produce over the coming months.
     
  19. David_Cary

    David_Cary Member

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    I guess I didn't realize that finalize and sign pre-MVPA was synchronous. Oh well - I guess I'll cancel.
     
  20. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Just sit on it. It's refundable until you finalize. Just don't finalize for however long is relevant for your personal situation. The rest of the queue slides by while you ponder things, but it sounds like that's what you want?
     

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