Welcome to TMC, OP (original poster).
One thing you want to consider, is it appears to me that you might be falling into the same "trap" that many new EV purchasers (or people considering purchase) do, which is look at the range the car is supposed to have and say to yourself "I only drive 200 miles a week, this car can go 260 miles, I only need to charge it once a week, and it should be fine".
For one, you wont be charging from 100-0. Thats not how EV driving works, and its not healthy for the battery to constantly be charged to 100%. For daily use, you will be charging to a maximum of 90%, and no one runs an EV down to zero on a regular basis. You will be running the car from a normal charge of 90% to a minimum charge to roughly 20 or 30%. Lets call it 20%.
Thats from 234 miles (90% of 260) to 52 miles (20% of 260). So, when brand new, thats 182 miles as your regular usable range, not 260. Additionally, mileage will NOT roll off at a 1 mile used per 1 mile on the rated range (1:1) rate. That rate is based on the EPA range, and just like most people dont get the rated MPG in gas vehicles, the same goes with EVs. To REALLY over simplify, the only way you will get that 1:1 rated range roll off is to drive about 45-50 MPH.
That 182 miles above is really somewhere between 150-160 miles, at highway speeds, and that does not count a real winter situation, or rain (which cuts EV miles as well, rolling resistance).
So in good weather, you will likely get around 160-165 actual miles. In cold winter weather, you will likely get closer to a 30% loss of 1:1 so thats around 130-140 miles. All of this above leads to the following:
The question is NOT "is 260 miles enough for me". The question is "is 130 miles in the winter enough for me" (and this is when the car is new, not figuring in the battery degradation that will happen over your ownership, since you keep the cars).
All the above is somewhat "detail" on why the recommendation is to buy the most range you can afford. Since the car comes with autopilot, you should consider buying the long range and dropping Full self driving, since there is a budget concern / desire to get to a certain pricepoint for rebates. You can add FSD later if you want, you can not add more range to the car (unlike a gas vehicle, you are not going to "engine swap" (battery swap) a new longer range battery in it right now).
The calculations are the same above for the long range, but you start with 100 more miles.
Now, if you have home charging and only drive 200 miles a week, 130 miles range is likely fine. The model 3 is my first EV, and having owned one since late 2018, I still feel that buying the most range one can afford is the right call. Most people dont say "man I wish my EV got less range", after they have owned it for a while.
