Continuing update on Tesla vehicles

[Chopr147]

Regarding autopilot: if and when Tesla figures out full autonomy, would the models be able to update and get this improvement? I believe older Model S sedans can get the new and improved AP. The reason I ask is because I had planned on financing my Model 3 , not leasing. But a lease may be better if the changes, improvements etc... are a good enough reason to to turn the old one in. EV technology I think will be improving every year. The 2013 Model S already seems far behind the 2016.

 

[Saghost]

That's hard to say. Tesla has offered upgrades of older cars for some hardware changes, but not for others - and Autopilot is on the list of things they said wasn't practical. However, presumably the upgrade to later generations of AP will be less involved than the initial upgrade to AP. I wouldn't count on getting the upgrade, but there's a chance you could.

 

[Chopr147]

You sound like a politician. Answered my question but not really. I guess there really isn't an answer just yet. M3 still has many questions with few answers.

 

[favo]

Over-the-air software updates are almost guaranteed for Model 3. Updating hardware is trickier. It's possible that they designed Model 3 to be as modular as possible with regard to sensors and necessary wiring, but I think their main focus is being able to scale up to 500,000 cars per year by 2018. All other design tweaks are going to take a backseat to this lofty goal. Elon indicated the Model 3 design would be locked down as of approximately June 1 of this year, so they can get tooling and suppliers on board ASAP.

 

[Saghost]

You sound like a politician. Answered my question but not really. I guess there really isn't an answer just yet. M3 still has many questions with few answers.

Them's fightin' words!!

I'm still under the delusion that I'm an honest engineer fighting to make the world a better place.

But yes, we don't have the answer and won't until there's actual Model 3 and full autonomous hardware on the street, so I tried to give you the best impression I can based on Tesla's past history - which has shown much more openess to upgrades than the average car company, but still drawn some rather definite lines (some of which, like the pack upgrades, we expect to change in a couple year's time.)

We might get a better indication this winter or early next year when AP2 (or at least 1.5?) shows up and we see whether Tesla agrees to upgrade AP1 cars...

 

[Topher]

There is description of a person who retrofitted AP hardware into a non-AP Model S. It basically involved ripping the car apart. Look it up.

I am pretty sure Tesla is putting in the hardware that they think will do the best job at approaching fully autonomous driving. But neither we nor they know what is truly needed, and what technological progress will bring.

Saghost answered your question correctly; "we don't know." This is a common trait in engineers, and a rare one in politicians.

Thank you kindly.

 

[wbrumfiel]

I doubt the AP hardware will be upgradeable. The software for sure will be (to a point). I just don't see them offering to retrofit 100s of thousands of vehicles. If they do it will likely be very expensive. I'm still going to purchase vs lease and if something mind blowing comes out I will sell it and buy new. I still think you end up ahead vs leasing.

 

[zenmaster]

I am pretty sure Tesla is putting in the hardware that they think will do the best job at approaching fully autonomous driving. But neither we nor they know what is truly needed, and what technological progress will bring.

Full driving autonomy technology is something you aren't going to see for the foreseeable future. Yet people bring it up like it's a few years away. You're going to see cautious experiments to slowly introduce bits and pieces of aspects of it into partial autonomous driving. However, the reliability demanded for identifying, understanding and negotiating or behaving appropriately to the shear variety of real-world circumstances is way out of reach technologically.

 

[David99]

Just a reminder, the whole idea of new features and upgraded hardware is to have people continue to buy your product. There is a new iPhone coming out every year so people buy a new one. Tesla makes a lot more money selling an entire new car than upgrading old cars. I would not hold my breath on getting upgrades. My 2014 S 85 is as it is when I bought it. No hardware upgrades whatsoever are available. Not even simple things like individual tire pressure monitoring, no parking sensors, no AP hardware.

 

[CHG-ON]

I think that if Tesla is smart, they won't do upgrades for the foreseeable future. They need to be a car manufacturer, not a customizer, right now. No matter how much I would like it! They really need to focus on building truly outstanding, well built cars on a large scale. Not adding stuff to ours. All their focus and passion absolutely must be focused on that or they won't pull it off. They have moved into the really big leagues now.

I do think that they have a modular design in mind and expect the M3 to be part of that. But even given that, I can't see the incentive for them to upgrade existing cars for some time. I do think it could be a big margin business. But in time and in a different channel.

 

[Topher]

Full driving autonomy technology is something you aren't going to see for the foreseeable future. Yet people bring it up like it's a few years away. You're going to see cautious experiments to slowly introduce bits and pieces of aspects of it into partial autonomous driving. However, the reliability demanded for identifying, understanding and negotiating or behaving appropriately to the shear variety of real-world circumstances is way out of reach technologically.

I agree. Sadly for us, Elon Musk disagrees (he says 3-5 years), and he knows far more about it than I (and possibly you). He is known to be an optimist, but he has also done many things people thought impossible.

Thank you kindly.