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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    #1 Wenche, Jan 27, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 17, 2020
    I didn’t find a tread suitable for this topic, so here I go. I found this page that claims to have a real time update on the Corona Virus. It shows nubers of infected, deaths, and recovered from the virus. It also include a realtime view of the building of the Wuhan hospital. Anyone here familiar with the sours of this live stream? I think this virus might might be a matter to consider as a TSLA shareholder.
    Coronavirus Map
     
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  2. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    upload_2020-1-28_0-7-1.png
     
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  3. jkeyser14

    jkeyser14 Member

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    Hopefully Tesla sales staff in China is talking up the bio defense mode HVAC.
     
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  4. Rande

    Rande Member

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    The original map source is:
    Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

    It was created by (and is updated by) Johns Hopkins University. It's not quite "real-time" - it's only updated once or twice a day. However, it can be considered a respectable source of information.

    If you want to know the background and the source of the raw data:
    ncov – CSSE
     
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  5. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    1A037F70-9497-4E76-A48C-77C2F12537AC.png 5F85B540-C0C8-4AE9-B3F1-8B5F09808B6C.png The Corona is accelerating.
     
  6. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    129B7D8F-5C38-4837-A3A4-C1E8D8CB463A.jpeg SPY up. No panic, everything under control!?
     
  7. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    Healthwise, this does not seem to be as deadly as ebola which has a mortality rate of about 50 to 90% depending on early treatment access (11,300 died out of 29,000 cases in 2014 West Africa).

    USA Flu death is about 61,200 for 2018-2019 out of 42.9 million people who got the flu. It's about 79,400 for 2017-2018 with 48.8 million cases.

    So far, 7,818 confirmed Coronavirus cases with 170 deaths globally.

    World Health Organization emphasizes hand washing, not face masks:

    Advice for public


    Moneywise:

    Do Tesla workers still travel back and forth between the US and China?

    What's the status of the Gigafactory 3?

    Crowds, especially in enclosed spaces are not encouraged. Do assembly workers still crank out Model 3?

    How smooth is the delivery process now since there are places that are undeliverable due to the quarantine?
     
  8. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s Director-General, said that the agency’s move was not meant to be a “vote of no confidence” in China, but a recognition that the virus could spread to countries “with weaker health systems and are ill-prepared to deal with it.”

    They’re worried about 3rd world countries who are ill equipped to deal with the virus, so might as well declare an emergency now. Given that the virus only has a 2% death rate, it’s not as deadly as SARS and likely treatable in 1st world nations.
     
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  9. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #9 Fact Checking, Jan 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2020
    First estimates about the mortality rate of the current strain of the coronavirus by age demographic are in, by a leading Chinese epidemiologist:


    Of the 7,000+ cases documented so far:
    • no one under 30 has died,
    • case mortality rate for 40-59 year olds is 0.2%,
    • case mortality rate for 80+ year olds is 18%
    I.e. it appears to be much milder than feared and in case you distrust the Chinese data, it matches the severity data from the 100+ international cases as well.

    Also the probability of symptom free transmission is fortunately low:


    The WHO declared a "public health emergency" yesterday, but also praised China's containment efforts as exemplary and did not recommend any travelling or trading restrictions beyond the ones already in place.

    Btw., the latest data suggests that new reported cases appear to be a few days away from peaking in Hubei province, the exponential growth phase is over and the containment efforts are working.

    Tesla guided 1-2 weeks of production delays at GF3, which, if it stays in that range, should not materially impact Q1 results, as I believe they are supply chain limited (battery packs in particular), not assembly speed limited.
     
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  10. Singuy

    Singuy Active Member

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    Compared to the flu

    18-49yo mortality rate Is 3%
    50-64yo mortality rate is 4.7%
    65+ is 10%

    Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC
     
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  11. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Note that the percentages you cited are that of hospitalized (i.e. severe) cases in the U.S.

    Mortality of the 18-49yo among all the ~14 million people who got the flu in that year was around 0.02%.

    In the Chinese data only about 10% is listed as "severe", and it's unclear to what extent the hospitalized cases are mild patients diagnosed with the coronavirus and caught up in the quarantine, or truly only severe cases that require hospitalization. Over 90% of the international cases are such mild cases.

    So in that sense it's not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison.
     
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  12. Singuy

    Singuy Active Member

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    All 7000 cases are hospitalized correct? I am comparing hospitalized vs hospitalized. If you are not hospitalized, then you wouldn't know if you have the flu or just a common cold or something else as you are not tested.
     
  13. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    All 7,000 cases are hospitalized and "tested positive" cases, i.e. there's a significant selection bias. The mortality rate based on that data would over-estimate the true mortality rate.

    In the U.S. data you cited they have estimated the non-hospitalized but 'symptomatic' number of patients, which can be done pretty reliably for known strains of the flu - but which we cannot do with the coronavirus (yet).

    The number of symptomatic but not hospitalized people infected with the coronavirus, mostly within Hubei province, are estimated to be in the broad range of 30k-300k, but they are currently cut off from most transmission pathways via the vacation-quarantine, so they are expected to drop roughly in line with the hospitalized cases.

    Once new hospitalized cases have peaked (which I think happened today) I'd expect Chinese authorities to start a countdown clock of ~14 days to make sure all unknown cases in the incubation period go through the natural cycle and the number of infected people drops to near zero. I.e. the "vacation" might be extended by one more week, but not much more IMHO - absent any escalation.

    I.e. the hospitalized cases data is a proxy for the true infections data.
     
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  14. Causalien

    Causalien "The retired" 8 ball Oracle

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    The few German cases suggest asymptomatic transimission is 1 to 3.

    There seem to be a large variability on how transmissible and how deadly it can be. And south korea seems to be the country to observe as its H2H transmission seems more mature.

    We'll know in 1 week how bad it is.

    The bio defense mode of the model S did put my mind at ease when my niece sneezed in the car though. I wonder if model Y shoild have an option like this in asian countries. And how to market this.
     
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  15. hpartsch

    hpartsch Member

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    Numbers might be much higher....
     
  16. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope RIP The Professor on the drum kit, Neil Peart

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    Totally agree. Assuming the stats we're getting are correct then it's been blown out of all proportion.

    12,000 - 61,000 deaths per year fro flu in the US alone...

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Causalien

    Causalien "The retired" 8 ball Oracle

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    I keep seeing this argument being thrown around in different places completely unrelated and unconnected.

    Sounds like the same arguments Germans used when explaining that terrorism is not a problem cause it kills less people than the flu.
     
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  18. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    I think it's about objectivity.

    It's true that terrorism is bad and we need an anti-terrorism team but does that mean the U.S. should declare martial laws and I should stop going to school, work...?
     
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  19. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    Wilbur Ross sees the coronavirus outbreak as a moneymaking opportunity for the US

    "Asked by Bartiromo if the new coronavirus puts economic growth at risk, Ross responded by offering thoughts and prayers to those directly affected, before saying, “I don’t want to talk about a victory lap over a very unfortunate, very malignant disease.” But he then proceeded to take a victory lap by making a case that the outbreak might present a moneymaking opportunity in the United States."

    It's too simplistic to think coronavirus in the same line as "Trade wars are good, and easy to win".

    Usually, In war, if the other side is injured, disabled or killed, the U.S. can celebrate with a victory lap!

    It's best to have someone competent to handle trade conflicts or otherwise, as John Bolton said in an unrelated subject: It would be like "a hand grenade who’s going to blow everybody up."

    As we now can see that the stock market is falling more than 500 points in this hour, the world is interconnected and hurting one nation might even hurt the U.S. itself!
     
  20. SpartyTM3

    SpartyTM3 Member

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    I personally know of one American Tesla contractor who was quarantined in the US upon his return from China.
     
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