Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also, the 20% number is BS (unless you believe that all data is just an opinion and equally valid).

True, sorry for not pointing that out. I don't know what the true number is for % of population with antibodies. Looks like the modeling sites put it at about 12%. But my priors lead me to believe strongly that even at 20% (and likely it is somewhere between 10 and 20%), it wouldn't be nearly enough to stop the spread in the presence of fall & winter climate conditions.

I hope they are successful in eliminating transmission completely in the next month and can enter the winter in a position where they can keep it suppressed. Complacency is such a big risk.

 

[dfwatt]

@dfwatt - have you seen this?

https://www.psychiatrist.com/JCP/article/Pages/2020/v81/20l13476.aspx

Came in on one of my medical news feeds:
"Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects"

"In COVID-19 patients who may still be [undergoing treatment] with chloroquine, close psychiatric assessment and monitoring should be performed"

"These events included amnesia, delirium, hallucinations, depression, and loss of consciousness"
Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects

Very interesting. Sounds like it lines up with what has been called "quinoline encephalopathy" which can be seen with a broad variety of drugs including macrolides, fluoroquinolones, chloroquine, and that whole family of related drugs. Every once in a while we'd see a strange case of delirium and we'd rule out the usual culprits and it turned out they were on Cipro. Why does cipro cause a small incidence of delirium? Your guess is as good as mine. This class of drugs aren't famous for their ability to induced delirium so I suspect you're seeing some kind of who knows genotypic or phenotypic vulnerability. It's really a mystery bottom line. Most people can take this class of drugs and have no cognitive or mental status changes. But some can't.

There are lots of ways in terms of biological effect on neuronal behavior and physiology to get to delirium and confusional state, indeed almost anything that disrupts Global Network formation and Global Network Dynamics seems to be able to create confusional states. Classically it's heavy blocking or boosting of almost any neuromodulatory system, or high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. That's most of delirium anyway. So nobody really seems to have a very good idea exactly what might be driving this process in relationship to hydroxychloroquine. It's definitely a concern though, but I suspect that the depression is mostly post confusional state/ cognitive fog - after induction of a confusional state particularly if it's from a pro-inflammatory process, many patients will experience a post confusional state depression which may be related also to pro inflammatory signals and their rebounding in the brain in various ways, as opposed to it being a primary pure depressive reaction.

But who knows. Just add it to the list of reasons for why hydroxychloroquine is not a benign drug

 

[JRP3]

"These events included amnesia, delirium, hallucinations, depression, and loss of consciousness"

Also noted was repeated yelling of "maga" and "covfefe".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The T-cell pump game is strong today. It's so strong that today it brought out the scientists who do the studies, and have a much less sanguine view of T-cell immune memory, to try to counter the Twitter "let's get complacent and reopen everything, COVID is over" crowd.

Summary: T-cell immune memory may reduce disease severity in those lucky enough to have it (which would explain some of the results we've observed so far), but it is unlikely to significantly affect the herd immunity threshold. These T-cells are apparently unlikely to stop infections. But more study must be done to understand how this works; at this point it is simply a hypothesis.

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293344524731691008?s=20

 

[dhanson865]

Face coverings now mandatory in shops in Ireland

Shoppers who refuse to wear coverings in the Republic will face fines of up to €2,500 and a potential prison stint.

 

[bkp_duke]

A never-before-seen image of the coronavirus copy machine

 

[renim]

I'd hate to see this become the fiasco that the anti-vaxxers keep obsessing for. We need a working vaccine that doesn't harm people.

I'm reminded of new cars without airbags.
https://stat-overdrive-in.cdn.amppr.../2019-Renault-Duster-Facelift-OVERDRIVE-1.jpg


Obviously not up to 1st world standards but seriously safer than

 

[renim]

The nuance is,

While that Russian drugs creeps me out as it seems to be basically a drug exiting 1st phase and entering entering 2nd phase of trials.

The lives and livelihood opportunity cost in the third world is quite profound. Is it ethical to withhold a vacinne that could save perhaps ten times as many lives as it could kill?

(Even if that would be a disaster in the West)

(No answers, just questions and erroneous assumptions)

 

[TespaceX]

Over 900 in Georgia district quarantine as high school shut

A second high school (in GA) within the same school district as North Paulding High, the one made famous in the news recently because of crowded hallways, is now shut down until end of the month.

Not surprised at all given it is in GA.

With all the news about college football, there’s been very little said from the SEC. I bet they push through anything and everything that happens along the way to completing an entire season on their own.

 

[SPadival]

The majority of studies of HCQ did not include the two essential ingredients: zinc and commencing the treatment early in the disease progression. For this reason, the majority of studies of HCQ are irrelevant regarding the potential of the cocktail containing zinc being given early in the disease progression.

Two videos relevant to this.
1. This is from a respiratory specialist who actually treats COVID patients IRL (unlike some keyboard doctors):

2. A video on how HCQ was politicised (purely because Trump recommended it) by Matt Taibbi

 

[alloverx]

Perhaps some short sellers have also been taking HCQ, that would explain those symptoms.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm sorry and I am loath to contradict a moderator in public, due to obvious reasons, but I am simply not comfortable with this formulation. Here's why. It reminds me of the referee that always punishes the retaliation but never catches the first offense that prompted the retaliation in the first place. What about the trolling, and deliberate disinformation that is actively disseminated on the forum? What about posts that advocate for openly white supremacist memes such as the notion that black lives matter is a terrorist organization? If those kinds of posts are not pulled down, and you punish instead the people who challenge or respond to that kind of crap harshly, it seems to me you're really not doing your job. No offense, but that's how I see it. You can punish me for posting this, but I'm not sure that solves the problem either. If trolling and disinformation are actively encouraged on a forum, you can't realistically be so surprised and so indignant when some of the responses to that type of content are less than optimally patient, balanced and respectful.

It’s not common for a moderator to discuss moderating policy in public, so this will be my last post on the matter. I am one of the few, if not only active moderator in the investment section and I do not see everything (most of the year I have a company to run and currently I am vacationing). So if a white supremacist meme stays online it means I missed it.

My original post was not aimed at people challenging that kind of crap, it was aimed at people burning others to the ground for posting COVID-19 information that is still fluid and cannot yet be classified as BS, let alone as - like someone said - flat earth theories. Heck, even renowned virologists advising governments on the best policies cannot always come to a consensus.

If one doesn’t agree with what someone (not being an obvious troll) is posting, answer decisively but respectfully. No need for an inquisition. And remember that in any area of expertise, no matter how educated or experienced one is, there is always a bigger fish.

That’s all I ask

From the many pleas I conclude that this thread still serves a purpose for a lot of people, so it will stay.

 

[renim]

Heads up

New Zealand will need to investigate if refrigerated freight was the vector that allowed sars-cov-2 back into their country.

 

[renim]

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australian educational settings: a prospective cohort study

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australian educational settings: a prospective cohort study. Aug 2020. NSW setting

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl4&pii=S2352-4642(20)30251-0

'The overall child to child transmission rate was 0·3%, and the attack rate for child to staff member was 1·0% (table 4). The rate of staff member to child transmission was lower (1·5%) than staff to staff transmission (4·4%). Excluding the single ECEC setting with the large outbreak, staff member to child (0·2%) and staff member to staff member (0·7%) transmission rates were lower compared with all settings.'

 

[renim]

As i read that, an infected teacher can be about 15x more likely to infect another teacher than an infected child is to infect another child. If given equal number of infected teachers&children.

 

[dfwatt]

The nuance is,

While that Russian drugs creeps me out as it seems to be basically a drug exiting 1st phase and entering entering 2nd phase of trials.

The lives and livelihood opportunity cost in the third world is quite profound. Is it ethical to withhold a vacinne that could save perhaps ten times as many lives as it could kill?

(Even if that would be a disaster in the West)

(No answers, just questions and erroneous assumptions)

Those are always critical questions. Here's the conventional answer, maybe not the right one but the conventional answer. Yes you may save lives by rushing a poorly tested product to Market. And some kind of inoculation maybe better particularly in high-risk groups than no inoculation. But the problem may be that if in the course of widespread Administration you find a host of problems including a small fraction of patients with increased disease what is called Antibody dependent enhancement, that will scare people off not simply from this vaccine but from all future vaccines. So your calculation has to be how many lives might you save from an early introduction versus how many lives you lose later because when there is a safer more effective vaccine people decide not to take it. In that sense your simple arithmetic of lives lost versus lives saved from the introduction of a poorly tested vaccine is not correct. There are secondary feedback effects from that process not simply in terms of patients who may die from the poorly vetted vaccine but in terms of other Fallout. This is why vaccines are so carefully vetted because of the potential for that second stroke backfire reaction to a poorly vetted one. And in the current climate, where there's already an enormous amount of anti scientific anti-vaccine hysteria, such a second stroke backfire would be severely bad news in many ways. We are already seeing negative public health effects from this anti-vaccine hysteria in terms of the Resurgence of several diseases that had been virtually eliminated in many areas. In other words, putting another brick of fuel on that anti-vaccine fire is also likely to kill other people in relationship to other diseases. So in that sense there are both secondary effects in relationship to covid-19 as well as tertiary effects in other areas of Public Health from a one single poorly vetted covid-19 vaccine. A true Calculus of lives lost versus live saved is therefore much more complex than you initially represented.

Hope this analysis makes sense and explains why Russia's move is so ill-advised.

 

[renim]

Those are always critical questions. Here's the conventional answer, maybe not the right one but the conventional answer. Yes you may save lives by rushing a poorly tested product to Market. And some kind of inoculation maybe better particularly in high-risk groups than no inoculation. But the problem may be that if in the course of widespread Administration you find a host of problems including a small fraction of patients with increased disease what is called Antibody dependent enhancement, that will scare people off not simply from this vaccine but from all future vaccines. So your calculation has to be how many lives might you save from an early introduction versus how many lives you lose later because when there is a safer more effective vaccine people decide not to take it. In that sense your simple arithmetic of lives lost versus lives saved from the introduction of a poorly tested vaccine is not correct. There are secondary feedback effects from that process not simply in terms of patients who may die from the poorly vetted vaccine but in terms of other Fallout. This is why vaccines are so carefully vetted because of the potential for that second stroke backfire reaction to a poorly vetted one. And in the current climate, where there's already an enormous amount of anti scientific anti-vaccine hysteria, such a second stroke backfire would be severely bad news in many ways.

I feel like you are responding as a North American, not that there is anything wrong with that, I feel most countries with the luxury of all new cars having airbags would have similar thoughts (my country included).

Philippines talking to Russian coronavirus vaccine maker on trials, seeks 'complete dossier'

or to more blunt, why would a Pinoy, Iranian or South African care that after an unknown amount of time, there may a safer vaccine that they may not be able to afford anyway, particularly if covid19 has a CFR of 1.5%

 

[dfwatt]

I feel like you are responding as a North American, not that there is anything wrong with that, I feel most countries with the luxury of all new cars having airbags would have similar thoughts (my country included).

Philippines talking to Russian coronavirus vaccine maker on trials, seeks 'complete dossier'

or to more blunt, why would a Pinoy, Iranian or South African care that after an unknown amount of time, they may a safer vaccine that they may not be able to afford anyway, particularly if covid19 has a CFR of 1.5%

I understand the argument that Third World areas ravaged by covid-19 may view waiting as a luxury available only for the white and privileged. I understand that, but there's a corollary to that namely that if you send a poorly vetted vaccine into Third World areas, isn't that a recapitulation of the privilege pyramid? In other words why should Third World areas be exposed to a poorly vetted and poorly tested vaccine such that the introduction of the vaccine there essentially constitutes the phase 3 trial? A lot of people might see that as an outrage in itself. There is a reason why it takes time to do proper vaccines. If we rush that and if we do shortcuts, there's a much higher likelihood of a heavy price to pay. The idea that somehow exposing the third world to that heavier price while we wait and get a properly vetted vaccine strikes me as a curious way of undoing Western privilege (putting aside for the moment the potential contradiction in all this that the vaccine could be rushed to Market in the USA for political reasons).

And there is an Other Side Story in your storyline namely that Russia is rushing this to market because they expect to get political benefit in the third world if it works. In other words, they're expecting to gain political capital in various ways and they're likely going to be distributing this vaccine potentially early to areas where they may seek to gain influence. I'm not sure that that sounds like a truly humanitarian move. Especially if the vaccine has any significant liabilities.

 

[cusetownusa]

I understand the argument that Third World areas ravaged by covid-19 may view waiting as a luxury available only for the white and privileged. I understand that, but there's a corollary to that namely that if you send a poorly vetted vaccine into Third World areas, isn't that a recapitulation of the privilege pyramid? In other words why should Third World areas be exposed to a poorly vetted and poorly tested vaccine such that the introduction of the vaccine there essentially constitutes the phase 3 trial? A lot of people might see that as an outrage in itself. There is a reason why it takes time to do proper vaccines. If we rush that and if we do shortcuts, there's going to be a heavy price to pay. The idea that somehow exposing the third world to that heavier price while we wait and get a properly vetted vaccine strikes me as a curious way of undoing Western privilege (putting aside for the moment the potential contradiction all this that the vaccine could be rushed to Market in the USA for political reasons).

Well, Putin is vouching for it...and he seems like a trustworthy guy (I’m very good at reading people). He even gave it to his daughter. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[JRP3]

A video on how HCQ was politicised (purely because Trump recommended it) by Matt Taibbi

Trump also recommended remdesivir and dexamethasone. Why were they not politicized? Why does Fauci discuss them as helpful treatments but says the evidence isn't there for HCQ? I don't think the skepticism surrounding HCQ has much at all to do with Trump, it has to do with inconsistent results which don't seem to stand up to RCT's.