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Two videos relevant to this.
1. This is from a respiratory specialist who actually treats COVID patients IRL (unlike some keyboard doctors):

2. A video on how HCQ was politicised (purely because Trump recommended it) by Matt Taibbi


That's a classic example of cherry-picked collateral evidence. That physician who is excellent IMO discussed this as a possible treatment in May. Since then, evidence has accumulated that it is not helpful overall. This does not mean that it may not help a fraction of patients some of the time, but it is not helpful in general, and it does not prevent infection either. If you look at any of his later videos that discuss this you will see that he no longer sees hydroxychloroquine as any version of a first-line treatment. So that early video is cherry-picked.

About the second bit of "evidence" if you want to call it that, the notion that hydroxychloroquine has been unfairly treated by the medical establishment because Trump advocated for it has things upside down. Trump got out ahead of his skis on that one in a big way, and, because there is a cult of the personality surrounding Trump, this led to a lot of people parroting him. But there is still no solid evidence from any randomized controlled trial that hydroxychloroquine is a viable first line treatment for covid-19. The problem is we've never had a chief executive who was so grandiose as to believe that he is in a better position to judge the efficacy of a drug compared to Physicians and scientists. That's the problem. Good luck pedaling The Narrative that Trump has somehow been victimized because people have called him on his advocacy for an unproven treatment. I guess the bank robber is being victimized as he's being put in the squad car with handcuffs on too. I suppose.
 
It’s not common for a moderator to discuss moderating policy in public, so this will be my last post on the matter. I am one of the few, if not only active moderator in the investment section and I do not see everything (most of the year I have a company to run and currently I am vacationing). So if a white supremacist meme stays online it means I missed it.

My original post was not aimed at people challenging that kind of crap, it was aimed at people burning others to the ground for posting COVID-19 information that is still fluid and cannot yet be classified as BS, let alone as - like someone said - flat earth theories. Heck, even renowned virologists advising governments on the best policies cannot always come to a consensus.

If one doesn’t agree with what someone (not being an obvious troll) is posting, answer decisively but respectfully. No need for an inquisition. And remember that in any area of expertise, no matter how educated or experienced one is, there is always a bigger fish.

That’s all I ask


From the many pleas I conclude that this thread still serves a purpose for a lot of people, so it will stay.

Fair enough and understood on most of those points. But here's the problem, while for example there was early confusion and division of opinion about masks, the evidence is now definitive that masks reduce transmission vectors. Part of the early mixed messaging was because of the need to preserve PPE for clinical staff. Particularly in the context of some lack of clear data about the transmission process, siphoning off limited supply in that context looked like a bad idea. In this sense you are correct that there is a certain amount of fluidity to our understanding of what Covid 19 might be, and how best to treat, prevent, and eventually vaccinate against it. And of course that fluidity or at least a portion of it may be intrinsic to any encounter with a novel pathogen. But at the same time, people who are conversant with the literature at some point are entitled to make a judgment that what was previously undecided has now adequate weight of evidence to form a judgment. In other words what was previously contested can now be labeled disinformation. I understand that that is not an easy boundary to control or police. In this context however I would reserve the right to label a post as disinformation if in my professional judgment the weight of evidence is convincingly and strongly against it.

The other issue that would be appreciated is more vigilance about trolling. There are posts that are simply put up to inflame, that are not humorous, and it would be very helpful if you could outline what you see as discriminating criteria for pulling down a post as trolling versus simply a post that may be controversial, sarcastic, or humor. That would be a real service to the form.

One final issue. In science, the arbiter of truth is not the size of your resume, it's how convincingly you can link an explanatory narrative to the existing body of evidence. So in that sense I disagree with your metaphor about "bigger fish". Or bigger organs of any kind (something men are always concerned about!:p). Where resumes and credentials in a sense become important is that they offer a crude measure of how much credibility an opinion about a scientific question may have. Unfortunately, great resumes do not guarantee great science, and we saw this around the Santa Clara antibody study, where scientists with impressive credentials took classic prohibited shortcuts, and came up with a reputation-damaging and simply invalid result. But ultimately any 'opinion' has scientific value only if it conforms to and is justified by the weight of evidence. And the word opinion here is tricky and frankly deceptive. I'd like to remind you of what I said earlier, that the scientific method is largely about getting opinion qua opinion out of the business. In some sense of course scientific theories at an early stage reflect an hypothesis that could be considered at that point just an opinion. But as science progresses and as weight of evidence amasses, that 'opinion', if you want to call it that, transitions into something else. It's no longer simply an 'opinion' it is a scientifically-supported finding. Those two things (opinions, esp. political and religious ones, and scientifically supported findings) are therefore different classes of assertions. Scientific training (and experience over a long period of time) gives you the ability to understand what constitutes good evidence, marginal evidence, and virtually slamdunk evidence. Okay so much for my epistemology lecture.

What I find extremely troubling in the current climate is the ridiculous notion that scientific questions have a wide range of equally valid opinions, including those from scientists! That's BS, and it's part of the systematic dismantling of expertise, because that expertise might threaten vested interests and their highly questionable assertions.
 
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As i read that, an infected teacher can be about 15x more likely to infect another teacher than an infected child is to infect another child. If given equal number of infected teachers&children.
I would interpret it a little bit differently. The attack rate is the percentage of contacts that are infected. The children had four times as many contacts as the adults and we don't know if those contacts were equally close or lengthy. The infected children infected 2 other children and the infected staff infected 7 other adults. The absolute number is what matters in terms of containing the spread. Still this data suggests that children do not spread the virus as effectively. But this is an extremely small data set, 13 of the 18 total secondary cases were from a single adult super spreader! This is further evidence that the spread is driven by super spreading events. I guess the question is, can children also be super spreaders?
 
Florida is now probably past their local maximum in deaths per day (by date of death). We may still see record numbers of deaths reported in the next week (as we did yesterday I think?) due to lags in reporting.

Looks like the peak was around August 3rd or 4th, as expected. Though still TBD. The tropical storm could have thrown off the trajectory of a few of the curves. (It looks to me like you can see the dents in a few of the curves, more obvious on the steeper sections, and occurring earlier/lower on the curves for more recent days.)

A13501FF-A212-4B9C-B93B-ECA707045C88.jpeg
 
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Fair enough and understood on most of those points. But here's the problem, while for example there was early confusion and division of opinion about masks, the evidence is now definitive that masks reduce transmission vectors. Part of the early mixed messaging was because of the need to preserve PPE for clinical staff. Particularly in the context of some lack of clear data about the transmission process, siphoning off limited supply in that context looked like a bad idea. In this sense you are correct that there is a certain amount of fluidity to our understanding of what Covid 19 might be, and how best to treat, prevent, and eventually vaccinate against it. And of course that fluidity or at least a portion of it may be intrinsic to any encounter with a novel pathogen. But at the same time, people who are conversant with the literature at some point are entitled to make a judgment that what was previously undecided has now adequate weight of evidence to form a judgment. In other words what was previously contested can now be labeled disinformation. I understand that that is not an easy boundary to control or police. In this context however I would reserve the right to label a post as disinformation if in my professional judgment the weight of evidence is convincingly and strongly against it.

The other issue that would be appreciated is more vigilance about trolling. There are posts that are simply put up to inflame, that are not humorous, and it would be very helpful if you could outline what you see as discriminating criteria for pulling down a post as trolling versus simply a post that may be controversial, sarcastic, or humor. That would be a real service to the form.

One final issue. In science, the arbiter of truth is not the size of your resume, it's how convincingly you can link an explanatory narrative to the existing body of evidence. So in that sense I disagree with your metaphor about "bigger fish". Or bigger organs of any kind (something men are always concerned about!:p). Where resumes and credentials in a sense become important is that they offer a crude measure of how much credibility an opinion about a scientific question may have. Unfortunately, great resumes do not guarantee great science, and we saw this around the Santa Clara antibody study, where scientists with impressive credentials took classic prohibited shortcuts, and came up with a reputation-damaging and simply invalid result. But ultimately any 'opinion' has scientific value only if it conforms to and is justified by the weight of evidence. And the word opinion here is tricky and frankly deceptive. I'd like to remind you of what I said earlier, that the scientific method is largely about getting opinion qua opinion out of the business. In some sense of course scientific theories at an early stage reflect an hypothesis that could be considered at that point just an opinion. But as science progresses and as weight of evidence amasses, that 'opinion', if you want to call it that, transitions into something else. It's no longer simply an 'opinion' it is a scientifically-supported finding. Those two things (opinions, esp. political and religious ones, and scientifically supported findings) are therefore different classes of assertions. Scientific training (and experience over a long period of time) gives you the ability to understand what constitutes good evidence, marginal evidence, and virtually slamdunk evidence. Okay so much for my epistemology lecture.

What I find extremely troubling in the current climate is the ridiculous notion that scientific questions have a wide range of equally valid opinions, including those from scientists! That's BS, and it's part of the systematic dismantling of expertise, because that expertise might threaten vested interests and their highly questionable assertions.

I think the mask discussion is a good example of what I meant by a fluid situation. My own government (The Netherlands), on the advice of prominent virologists, decided against the mandatory use of masks. The reason: it could negatively impact social distancing.

I have first hand experience as I am currently in Italy, where masks are mandatory in shops, hotels and other buildings. I can assure you it kills social distancing. People get too close to me, way too close. Even touching in restaurants. Many people think the masks protect them and they become much more casual in the rest of their behavior.

I don’t know if it’s worse than not wearing masks, but I’m not yet convinced one side is holding the better cards.
 
I think the mask discussion is a good example of what I meant by a fluid situation. My own government (The Netherlands), on the advice of prominent virologists, decided against the mandatory use of masks. The reason: it could negatively impact social distancing.

I have first hand experience as I am currently in Italy, where masks are mandatory in shops, hotels and other buildings. I can assure you it kills social distancing. People get too close to me, way too close. Even touching in restaurants. Many people think the masks protect them and they become much more casual in the rest of their behavior.

I don’t know if it’s worse than not wearing masks, but I’m not yet convinced one side is holding the better cards.

Well it's a good example of the kind of false confidence that half hearted adoption of epidemiology promotes. You are absolutely right that mask wearing sometimes kills social distancing. But the failure to adopt both of those is unfortunately part of what is deteriorating control over this extremely infectious pathogen. And ironically the evidence Is that in areas that once had really good control over the pathogen, this success promotes false confidence which in turn opens the door for disinhibition of transmission chains all over again. People just have a tough time not relaxing their guard and God knows all these measures are fatiguing and irritating and in some cases infuriating, and in still other instances just plain depressing. But this is why the experts really have to be in control of the messaging and the messaging has to be consistent, and there has to be in a sense of collective will and the collective recognition that this is the only way we're going to beat this thing until we have a vaccine. That whole Business of emphasizing the collective or the Commons is not the forte of cultures like the United States where rugged individualism has always been the dominant meme. But that's why we're struggling with this.
 
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I think the mask discussion is a good example of what I meant by a fluid situation. My own government (The Netherlands), on the advice of prominent virologists, decided against the mandatory use of masks. The reason: it could negatively impact social distancing.

I have first hand experience as I am currently in Italy, where masks are mandatory in shops, hotels and other buildings. I can assure you it kills social distancing. People get too close to me, way too close. Even touching in restaurants. Many people think the masks protect them and they become much more casual in the rest of their behavior.

I don’t know if it’s worse than not wearing masks, but I’m not yet convinced one side is holding the better cards.
It's odd that for myself I find the opposite. I'd rather not wear a mask so I'm inclined to stay far away from people so I don't have to.
Of course when I actually (rarely) go inside a building I wear a P100 full face respirator and I have to admit that it does give me a sense of security. I haven't eaten at a restaurant since early March.
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@dfwatt - have you seen this?

https://www.psychiatrist.com/JCP/article/Pages/2020/v81/20l13476.aspx

Came in on one of my medical news feeds:
"Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects"

"In COVID-19 patients who may still be [undergoing treatment] with chloroquine, close psychiatric assessment and monitoring should be performed"

"These events included amnesia, delirium, hallucinations, depression, and loss of consciousness"
Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects

Yeah but did they test with zinc?
 
excel doesn't like to make graphs for me when the source data is too long so I've chopped off the first 3 months of the data since it was so flat compared the the more recent data.

While we do have a little dip at the end of the chart we haven't opened up all our schools yet in the region and what schools have opened haven't had time to turn into full blown cases yet. I fully expect this lull to be temporary.

upload_2020-8-12_17-47-50.png
 
Anyone have an idea of what’s the reason for the reported lower test numbers in the past couple weeks, especially in Texas?
Shortages of supplies. Why Some People Are Waiting Weeks for Their COVID-19 Test Results
The whole system is a completely uncoordinated free for all.
If you want to pay the rack rate you can get PCR test results the same day here in San Diego. There's a thread on Nextdoor for my neighborhood of people asking where to get tested before going to Hawaii since they require a test less the 72 hours before departure.
Interestingly this place, https://covidclinic.org, also offers a 15 minute antigen test which was recently approved under the Emegency Use Authorization. I looked it up and the machine only costs $1600. Seems like we should be cranking those out for schools!
 
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Shortages of supplies. Why Some People Are Waiting Weeks for Their COVID-19 Test Results
The whole system is a completely uncoordinated free for all.
If you want to pay the rack rate you can get PCR test results the same day here in San Diego. There's a thread on Nextdoor for my neighborhood of people asking where to get tested before going to Hawaii since they require a test less the 72 hours before departure.
Interestingly this place, https://covidclinic.org, also offers a 15 minute antigen test which was recently approved under the Emegency Use Authorization. I looked it up and the machine only costs $1600. Seems like we should be cranking those out for schools!

I looked at that website and I could not find a link for a machine that would allow large numbers of antigen test? Could you forward that link?
 
It's odd that for myself I find the opposite. I'd rather not wear a mask so I'm inclined to stay far away from people so I don't have to.
Of course when I actually (rarely) go inside a building I wear a P100 full face respirator and I have to admit that it does give me a sense of security. I haven't eaten at a restaurant since early March.

Not only is there wearing a mask vs not wearing a mask there is also what kind of mask and will you wear it properly.

We got this at work the other day

CDC Update - Face Coverings with Vents or Valves
In early August, the CDC has revised their guidance regarding face coverings:
“Masks with one-way valves or vents allow exhaled air to be expelled out through holes in the material. This can allow exhaled respiratory droplets to reach others and potentially spread the COVID-19 virus.Therefore, the CDC does not recommend using masks if they have an exhalation valve or vent.”

Please only use face coverings that do not include a valve or vent.

And as a reminder, ... requires the use of a face covering in all common areas and in workspaces where a minimum 6’ separation cannot be maintained.

I'm using a "shop towel" mask that has no vent and my wife is wearing a vented N95 covered by a cloth mask. In her case; her work requires being in contact with customers (separation isn't an option, but they do screen by temperature, require masks, and do a lot of sanitizing/washing). Covering the vent with another thinner mask negates the vent, and we feel safer with her wearing an N95+cloth mask than to wear the cloth mask or shop towel mask alone.

I suppose a hidden vent between two layers of mask isn't going to draw any attention. But I can't help but think of the recommendations and how people react to them as being way to simplistic. I'd rather see someone in front of me with a vented N95+cloth mask work properly than to see them in a cloth mask alone (especially if the mask is loose and doesn't generate a seal and/or slides down below the nose).

I'd like to see PSAs like what fixthemask has showing people how to check for seal and make it clear that a mask that isn't sealing isn't as good as one that does seal. I wan't to see it on every news network at least once a week. So many people are buying colored cloth masks for the fashion that are loose enough I could grab a yard stick and slide it between the mask and their face. So many employers are giving cheap one size fits all masks to employees who end up in the same situation.

I don't feel protected when I can see both nostrils because your mask is loose or the wrong size or you are just wearing it wrong.

And as much as I'd love to keep 6+ feet between me and 99% of the people out there I find myself needing to get within 6 feet of someone several times a week and I don't have a good way to avoid that.
 
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I looked at that website and I could not find a link for a machine that would allow large numbers of antigen test? Could you forward that link?
Looks like the existing machine only has a throughput of 60 tests per hour if you time the development of samples manually but presumably one with more sensors could be built.
Seems like the real question is how much the test cassettes cost.
Quidel Sofia 2 Rapid Test Analyzer - Save at Tiger Medical, Inc
 
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I have first hand experience as I am currently in Italy, where masks are mandatory in shops, hotels and other buildings. I can assure you it kills social distancing. People get too close to me, way too close. Even touching in restaurants. Many people think the masks protect them and they become much more casual in the rest of their behavior.
I think you may be simply seeing cultural differences, not the influence of mask wearing. We've seen plenty of areas in this country where people with no masks are also not social distancing in the least.
 
I think the mask discussion is a good example of what I meant by a fluid situation. My own government (The Netherlands), on the advice of prominent virologists, decided against the mandatory use of masks. The reason: it could negatively impact social distancing.

I have first hand experience as I am currently in Italy, where masks are mandatory in shops, hotels and other buildings. I can assure you it kills social distancing. People get too close to me, way too close. Even touching in restaurants. Many people think the masks protect them and they become much more casual in the rest of their behavior.

I don’t know if it’s worse than not wearing masks, but I’m not yet convinced one side is holding the better cards.
This scientist in Italy actually measured social distancing using a belt with sensors in it and found that masks actually increase social distancing. Goggles increase it even more. I could imagine this would change over time and be different for different cultures. This study was done a while ago and Italy has had so few cases for months I can imagine that complacency is setting in.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf
Background
Without proven effect treatments and vaccines, Social Distancing is the key protection factor against COVID-19. Social distancing alone should have been enough to protect again the virus, yet things have gone very differently, with a big mismatch between theory and practice. What are the reasons? A big problem is that there is no actual social distancing data, and the corresponding people behavior in a pandemic is unknown. We collect the world-first dataset on social distancing during the COVID-19 outbreak, so to see for the first time how people really implement social distancing, identify dangers of the current situation, and find solutions against this and future pandemics.
Methods
Using a sensor-based “social distancing belt” we collected social distance data from people in Italy for over two months during the most critical COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, we investigated if and how wearing various Personal Protection Equipment, like masks, influences social distancing.
Results
Without masks, people adopt a counter-intuitively dangerous strategy, a paradox that could explain the relative lack of effectiveness of social distancing. Using masks radically changes the situation, breaking the paradoxical behavior and leading to a safe social distance behavior. In shortage of masks, DIY (Do It Yourself) masks can also be used: even without filtering protection, they provide social distancing protection. Goggles should be recommended for general use, as they give an extra powerful safety boost. Generic Public Health policies and media campaigns do not work well on social distancing: explicit focus on the behavioral problems of necessary mobility are needed.
 
This scientist in Italy actually measured social distancing using a belt with sensors in it and found that masks actually increase social distancing. Goggles increase it even more. I could imagine this would change over time and be different for different cultures. This study was done a while ago and Italy has had so few cases for months I can imagine that complacency is setting in.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf

Isn't this what is expected in a partial masking situation? If masking (eitherway) is not a political statement, than common courtesy is to give people with masks more social physical distance because they could be.

  • At risk medical workers doing the shopping. Etc
  • At risk people who have comorbidities ie diabetes or age etc
  • Workers with at risk communities ie aged car
  • Chinese or similar culture, ( just ignore masking then)
This increased physical distancing message gets annulled when masking transitions from voluntary to mandatory.
Que sera sera